Betting Baseball – Do Not Give Up, Just Be More Selective
Betting Baseball – Do Not Give Up, Just Be More Selective
With college football just around the corner and the regular season of the NFL to follow soon thereafter, a lot of sports bettors leave baseball to play with the pigskin. Many of the reasons are understandable. Those betting on baseball may have suffered a losing season or are tired from randomly losing too many games in the ninth inning by supposed closers blowing leads. Add in the fact the money lines are much higher on favorites this time of year compared to the first three quarters of the season (anywhere from 15 to 30 cents or more) and it is no wonder those wagering on baseball scatter to their favorite sport.
Nevertheless, sports betting is still sport betting. It is you against the oddsmaker and if you have just spent almost five months of your life in the daily grind of betting on baseball, hang in there and continue to make money.
The first thing to do is disregard all games where the favorites are -250 or higher on the money line. While your chances of winning are very good at 70.5 percent or better, the risk/reward does not match. Just one loss in this price range means you have to win three times just to show a profit. Look at this way, you bet on a -300 ML favorite (which should win 75 percent of the time) and they lose. Just to break even, you have to win on three other favorites at any price, which means winning at a 75 percent clip. When this article was published, Washington had the best record in baseball at 77-47, .621 percent.
Even standard run lines at these prices are treacherous, giving 1.5 runs and still having risk from -125 to -150 in regular deviations from money lines.
In these types of matchups, the better sports bet is looking into the underdog. If you can find an underdog at +200, who has a starting pitcher in good form (recent solid ERA, WHIP and low walk totals), against an opponent whose starter might be off is game in recent outings or the team itself is scoring less than four runs a game in its previous four or more contests, this could be worth the risk. Keep in mind, underdogs greater than +200 in which your record is 1-2 would still show a profit.
Understandably, a better situation to follow is games involving money lines at -150 or less. First, this simplifies the baseball betting process, taking out several games with huge numbers. One such matchup to consider is two teams with below .500 records. What we are looking for is current form and how we can take advantage. The Colorado Rockies have been dreadful all season, but for some reason have been playing better of late, heading to New York this past Monday to play the Mets, winning five of their last seven. New York on the other hand has been sliding since the All-Star break and their most recent slump had them at 4-9. An important factor is the Rockies bats had been hot and New York’s lineup was as cold as a late November day in the Big Apple.
While there was no reason to expect Colorado would sweep a four-game series at Citi Field (Picked up +6.45 units) as underdogs in each contest, there were ample signs the Rocks could earn a split, which would have supplied a profit.
Not everybody has the time to do the kind of research you will find at Rocketman Sports, thus if it makes more sense to let us do the work and make you the money, we will be happy to oblige. Just understand, this is the kind of work we go thru to make cold hard cash for our clients.
