Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and MLB Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and MLB Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Week 4 of the NFL season is almost here and we have all the big line moves which have occurred thus far. Be certain to return here Sunday for our updates and free picks. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – Thursday (101) SAN FRANCISCO at (102) ST. LOUIS 8:25 ET NFLN
Both these NFC West division rivals are averaging less than 20 points a game and own a 1-2 record, far below their expectations coming into the season. Colin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford have not played well the last couple of weeks and their offensive lines are not moving the opposition at the line of scrimmage. Football bettors do not trust either offense and have lowered the total from 44 to 42. The 49ers come in 11-3 OVER vs. defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards a game.
NFL – (199) PITTSBURGH vs. (200) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
No place like London to be for these pair of 0-3 teams. The comments from both head coaches lead one to believe neither is thrilled about the journey and would prefer to use the time for practice. But at least those doing NFL betting see value in one squad, taking Pittsburgh from a Pick to -2. The concern with backing Big Ben in London is he and the Steelers are 0-6 ATS away from home the first month of the season.
NFL – (203) CINCINNATI at (204) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
In the battle for Ohio, last week both teams surpassed the 30-point barrier which could have influenced the total rising from 41 to 42.5. I disagree with this line move, not being sold on QB Brian Hoyer having success against a much stronger defense in the Bengals and Cincinnati being 7-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins.
NFL – (207) SEATTLE at (208) HOUSTON 1:00 ET FOX
Seattle and Houston rank No. 1 and 2 in total defense in the NFL which undoubtedly has played a part in the total falling two points to 42.5. But hold on a second, we have news to the contrary to think about. The Seahawks, off their 45-17 drubbing of Jacksonville is 7-0 OVER after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game and the Texans are 18-8 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points.
NFL – (211) CHICAGO at (212) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
You have to wonder if the Bears are paid bonuses based on turnovers, because their opponents have already handed the ball over to Chicago 11 times in 2013. This has directly impacted the Bears being 3-0 OVER this season and is among the reasons the total for this NFC North matchup has stepped up from 47 to 48.5. Detroit is also 15-6 OVER as a favorite the last three seasons.
NFL – (223) NEW ENGLAND at (224) ATLANTA 8:30 ET NBC
Atlanta could be 3-0, the same as New England, but has failed in the clutch. The Falcons inability to close has left them at 1-2, yet they have gone from +1 or a Pick at most sportsbooks to -2. Here is why, under coach Mike Smith, Atlanta 14-4 against the spread off a road loss, winning by an average of 12 points a game.
NFL – Monday (225) MIAMI at (226) NEW ORLEANS 8:40 ET ESPN
Miami’s 3-0 start to the season is certainly a surprise; however, New Orleans has the look of returning to a Super Bowl contender, especially playing at home. The Saints were raised a point and a half to -6.5 and are a scintillating 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less since 2011. The Dolphins should not be overlooked with a 7-0 ATS mark off a non-conference game.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Ian Kennedy of the Padres is 13-1 in September games the last three seasons. (Team’s record)
MLB Totals Trend
Kyle Lohse and the Brewers are 10-1 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Jered Weaver and the Angels are 9-0 vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
