Betting NFL Football – The Game Plans
Betting NFL Football – The Game Plans
For serious football bettors, here is breakdown of what to look for from key NFL football games and what these teams will be attempting to accomplish.
(199) PITTSBURGH vs. (200) MINNESOTA CBS
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29 / 1:00 E
Steelers Game Plan: Pittsburgh always places a top priority of stopping the run, and this week it is that much more important because of Adrian Peterson handling the football. While cognizant of Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, he does not present any special challenges for the Steelers defense. On offense, they will try to get rookie RB Le’Veon Bell going to improve their No. 31-ranked ground game which would make life easier for Ben Roethlisberger to throw.
Vikings Game Plan: The Minnesota defense cannot let the Steelers gain the offensive balance they’ve been sorely lacking. Pittsburgh will try and establish the running game and the Vikings job is to win first and second down. If they do, big edge to Minnesota with the Steelers next to last in third-down conversions (27.8 percent). The team in purple has 10 turnovers, Pittsburgh has forced none. If the Vikes play clean, they can win for the first time this season.
Key sports betting number: This game opened as Pick, but Pittsburgh is up to -3, despite being 0-6 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.
(207) SEATTLE at (208) HOUSTON FOX
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29 / 1:00 E
Seahawks Game Plan: Houston will be a hot play among those betting NFL football, but Seattle has edges and can start 4-0. Houston’s offense is predicated on running and setting up play-action passing. The Seahawks are holding teams 19 percent below their rushing average and if they contain the Texans, they diminish the effect of pass-action. Houston is permitting 27.3 points a game, but their offense deserves a lot of the blame, since they are ranked No. 2 in total defense. Look for Peter Carroll to want to establish Marshawn Lynch to make the Hawks offense flow.
Texans Game Plan: The Houston offense is out of sync. Arian Foster lacks burst because of injuries, the O-Line blocking is fair and Matt Schaub has made several poor choices per game. Against the NFL’s top-rated defense, this cannot continue. The Texans defense has been placed in bad situations by their offense with mistakes, but J.J. Watt and company have not been elevating their game enough. The Houston defense has only forced one turnover and needs to play with more fervor to pull the upset.
Key sports betting number: Houston is 43-5 when they have 30 or more rush attempts and is 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses
(211) CHICAGO at (212) DETROIT FOX
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29 / 1:00 E
Bears Game Plan: The talking heads on the sports networks are always yakking about turnovers and this is one area where they have it right. Despite being outgained by 50 yards a game, Chicago is 3-0, largely due to the opposition having 11 miscues. The Bears will try and bounce around Matthew Stafford, since he’s been known to take longer to find a comfort zone when hit early in games. Matt Forte is the key to Chicago’s offense, having success against Detroit’s “wide 9” scheme which is ready made for how the Bears like to attack opposing defenses.
Lions Game Plan: Detroit can move into a first place tie in the NFC North with a victory, but will have to find a receiver or a complement of players to replace the contributions of Nate Burleson. This should mean more use of the tight ends and getting the ball to Reggie Bush with screens or wheel routes. The Detroit defense has to maintain composure (oh that’s going to happen), read their keys with Jay Cutler and be continually aware of Forte.
Key sports betting number: In spite of the Chicago being 7-1 SU since Cutler arrived in this series, the Lions have beat the spread five times.
(223) NEW ENGLAND at (224) ATLANTA NBC
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 / 8:30 E
Patriots Game Plan: New England is only averaging 19.7 points per game through three weeks, which a dramatic drop-off for a unit that led the NFL at 34.8 points per game a year ago. Tom Brady is working with a different cast, which has been the biggest change and being dead last in red zone offense makes matters worse. If Ryan Tannehill can move the ball on Atlanta, Brady should certainly be able to, especially if TE Rob Gronkowski is ready. The Patriots defensive numbers are solid; however, what those making sports picks want to know is will this group play as well against an offense which actually has a skilled quarterback.
Falcons Game Plan: The Falcons are 1-2 and are in danger of falling three games behind New Orleans with a loss Sunday night. The secondary is being lit up for 296 yards, which has to thrill Brady. Atlanta has to do a much better job on slot receivers (Patriots specialty) if they expect to slow New England to their current scoring average. The Atlanta offense has been effective, but has lacked the clutch aspect late in games. Matt Ryan and his teammates need a 60-minute effort.
Key sports betting number: Atlanta is up to a 2.5-point favorite and they are 19-5 ATS after one or more losses.
(225) MIAMI at (226) NEW ORLEANS ESPN
SUNDAY, SEPT. 30 / 8:40 E
Dolphins Game Plan: This is not a good week for Miami to possibly be without four starters, especially Cameron Wake (best pass rusher) and Paul Soliai (best run stuffer). This places a premium of the Dolphins D to creates turnovers and make New Orleans boot field goals. The Miami offense has been better than expected, particularly without a running game (28th). Ryan Tannehill is a good athlete who can make plays with his feet, yet as we have witnessed this season, he’s at his best when standing tall in the pocket and heaving the football. The Fins on the road is always intriguing for those studying NFL odds.
Saints Game Plan: This would seem to be a very favorable matchup for New Orleans. Miami is beatable through the air, is conceding 4.7 yards per rush attempt and is depleted by injuries. If Drew Brees and the offense find the end zone, this could get ugly. The Saints run defenders are allowing 5.3 yards a carry, but take on a Dolphins offense only generating 70.3 yards a contest. If New Orleans is stout against the run, their blitzing can get to Tannehill whose been sacked 14 times already.
Key sports betting number: New Orleans is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite the last three seasons.
