Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 5
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 5
By Doug Upstone
Here are all the latest NFL Line Moves for Week 5. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (415) BALTIMORE at (416) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS *New
With Baltimore off a bad loss to Buffalo and Miami annually a dreadful home favorite at 10-33 ATS since 2004, the betting public has lowered the Dolphins from -3.5 to -2.5. The key for the Ravens to cover is the passing game, since they are 26-5 ATS when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards per attempt. SWM Take – Baltimore covers
NFL – (417) JACKSONVILLE at (416) ST. LOUIS 1:00 ET CBS *New
How bad are things on the shores of the Mississippi River for the Rams, they are down one and half points as a favorite to those jokers from Jacksonville. St. Louis is still an 11-point home favorite, but is 0-8 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more total yards in consecutive games. SWM Take – Lean with St. Louis
NFL – (419) NEW ENGLAND at (420) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET CBS
Those betting on football might be thinking the Patriots have turned a corner, while the Bengals continue to flounder. New England was a 1.5-point underdog and has been altered to a Pick. This does make sense as Tom Brady is gaining confidence in his receivers, while Andy Dalton is just off target. Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS off a SU division defeat. Update – The Pats went to a 1 or 1.5-point favorite on Thursday and gave stayed there. SWM Take – New England covers
NFL – (423) DETROIT at (424) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET FOX
Both these NFC North partners have tremendous passing offenses and both teams are on the bottom half of pass defenses statistics, which is why the total is heading north from 52 to 55 points. Given the total, the teams are a combined 28-6 OVER when they and the opposition both score at least 20 points. Update – This is an odd one, as wagering outlets are down to mostly 54, yet over 90 percent are on the Over, curious. SWM Take – Play Over
NFL – (425) NEW ORLEANS at (416) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX *New
The Saints are looking an awful lot alike to their 2009 Super Bowl team in the early going, and they have gone from a Pick to -1.5 point favorite playing in the Windy City. Normally, this would not happen with New Orleans playing outdoors, but the Bears pass defense has not been good, which is the chief reason why they have become underdogs. SWM Take – New Orleans covers
NFL – (431) SAN DIEGO at (432) OAKLAND 11:35 ET NFLN
Raiders Nation has gotten bumped from an afternoon affair to under the lights on Sunday because the MLB playoffs. Whenever the game was to be played; those taking a look at the NFL lines moved the total from 44 to 45.5. The most obvious reason for the move is the pass defenses. Oakland is 25th in yards per pass attempt (7.4) and San Diego is even worse at 30th (8.1). Toss in the Chargers are 9-1 OVER in road games after playing at home and you have the making of a play. Update – The total has kept rising, up to 46 or 46.5 points depending on the book, with almost 80 percent backing. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (433) DENVER at (434) DALLAS 4:25 ET CBS
The Cowboys might be playing at home, but their pass defense ranks 27th in the NFL, which is an ominous sign taking on Denver’s offense. Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense could hardly be playing any better and they up to -9 road favorites from -6. Denver is 8-0 ATS versus passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse since Manning arrived. Update – Not unexpectedly, the Dallas money rolled in late and the Cowboys are back down to +7.5. Nonetheless, just one-third are actually betting the Boys. SWM Take – Denver covers
NFL – (435) HOUSTON at (436) SAN FRANCISCO 8:25 ET NBC *New
These are two unsettled playoff teams from a year ago. Both have had issues with quarterback play and making mistakes. Those betting football are more comfortable taking the points because of this and altered Houston from +6.5 to +4.5. The Texans however are 3-11 ATS in road games off a home loss. SWM Take – Lean with Houston
NFL – Monday (437) N.Y. JETS at (438) ATLANTA 8:40 ET ESPN
For the first Monday night contest of October, who would have guessed the Jets would have a better record than the Falcons to this point. Certainly not Atlanta and it seems those making sports picks also, pushing the Birds from -7.5 to -10. Atlanta might not be a sure thing with their dismal 3-17 ATS record after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. Update – The Birds have stayed at 10, attracting over 75 percent of the wagers. SWM Take – Atlanta covers
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Denver is 13-2 ATS as a favorite the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Chicago is 8-0 OVER versus offensive teams averaging six or more yards a play the last three seasons.
NFL First Half Line Trend
Green Bay is 12-1 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread the last three seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
