Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends for Oct. 17
Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends for Oct. 17
By Doug Upstone
We have the nice variety pack of sports for Thursday. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (303) SEATTLE at (304) ARIZONA 8:25 ET NFLX (side and total)
For this Thursday football matchup, the betting odds on the total began at 42.5 and have receded to 40.5. Other factors do not support this adjustment as these teams are 8-4 OVER playing in the desert and here is a real nugget, Seattle is 11-2 OVER vs. passing teams averaging 235 or more yards a game under Pete Carroll. Update – The total has started to back up a bit to 41, with over 70 percent of football betters on the OVER. Also, Seattle support has eroded from the opening number of 6.5 down to -4.5 briefly and now at -5. SWM Take – Arizona covers and Under
CFB – (305) MIAMI-FL at (306) NORTH CAROLINA 7:45 ET ESPN
Miami is one of three ACC teams which is still unbeaten and has their toughest road test thus far, just off the popular Franklin Street. The Hurricanes opened as 8-point road favorite and have been bet up to 9.5 and are 8-0-1 ATS vs. ACC foes since last year. North Carolina was supposed to be a contender in the Coastal Division but has dropped three straight (SU and ATS). The last three times the Tar Heels have been a home underdog in this matchup, they are 3-0 SU and ATS. SWM Take – Lean with North Carolina
MLB – (919) BOSTON at (920) DETROIT 8:05 ET TBS
It’s a best two of three in the ALCS and the numbers are a movin’. Like yesterday, the total has slipped from 7.5 to 7 in the rematch of Anabal Sanchez (15-9, 2.67 ERA) and Jon Lester (16-9, 3.64) from Game 1 of the series. Sanchez was dominantly wild, with 12 K’s and 6 walks of no-hit baseball for six innings. Lester only allowed one run over 6.1 innings, but took the loss in the 1-0 outcome. While both hurlers have strong Under tendencies, Detroit is 16-4 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season. SWM Take – Play Over
NHL – (1) CAROLINA at (2) TORONTO 7:05 ET SS, LTV
Toronto’s 6-1-0 start is its best in 20 years, yet hockey bettors are unconvinced they are the right play entirely and lowered them from -170 on the money line to -150. Part of the reason for the line move could be Carolina’s is 8-3 record at Toronto since Nov. 2008. While the Maple Leafs look like a much better team, they have to overcome the past and are 17-37 ATS against offensive teams averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game the last three seasons. SWM Take – Lean with Toronto
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Boston is 18-4 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Minnesota is 4-20 in road games after one or more consecutive losses since 2011.
CFB Totals Trend
Miami is 6-0 OVER in road games the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
