Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and the Weekend Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and the Weekend Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
It is Championship Week and we have the latest college football line moves worth your consideration. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (105) BOWLING GREEN vs. (106) NORTHERN ILLINOIS 8:00 ET ESPN2 *New
Based on their body of work, Northern Illinois is a deserving favorite and in recent days has seen the support of the wagering public, going from -3 to -4.5 or -5. However, Bowling Green should not be taken lightly and their defense ranks fifth nationally in points allowed at 13.7 per game and their offense averages a more than respectable 34.3 PPG. If the Falcons can slow QB Jordan Lynch, they will have a chance to improve upon 12-4 ATS mark against MAC teams the past two years. SWM Take – Lean with Bowling Green
CFB – (109) SOUTH FLORIDA at (110) RUTGERS 7:30 ET ESPN2
Though Rutgers is the better team playing at home, the support for the Scarlet Knights is dwindling. Rutgers opened as a touchdown favorite over South Florida and has since slipped to 5.5. While the Bulls are one of the worst offensive team in college football (123rd out of 126), the Knights are 1-5-1 ATS as favorites this season causing the uncertainty. Update – The number is still going down, now at -5 in most Las Vegas shops and -4 at oddshore locales. Over 80 percent are on the Bulls. SWM Take – Lean with Rutgers
CFB – (111) TEXAS at (112) BAYLOR 3:30 ET FOX *New
You have to wonder if Baylor is a tired football team the way they have come down the stretch, not coming close to covering the spread in their previous two assignments as a favorite. Those making college football picks still are on the Bears, lifting them from -13.5 to -15.5 against Texas. The winner still has a shot at winning the Big 12 if Oklahoma State were to be upset and Baylor is an 18-5 ATS as home favorite recently. Just keep in mind the weather could be ugly in Waco Saturday. SWM Take – Lean with Texas
CFB – (113) UL-LAFAYETTE at (114) SOUTH ALABAMA 8:00 ET ESPN3
UL-Lafayette could have wrapped up the Sun Belt title last week but fell to rival UL-Monroe and takes a second swing at it this week. It turns out last Saturday was supposed to be way easier as a 18-point home favorite and now the Ragin’ Cajuns have gone from a Pick to +3. South Alabama has been competitive in every game but Navy and is 7-4 ATS. Update – The number has not budged all week despite South Alabama having less than 30 percent backing. SWM Take – UL- Lafayette covers
CFB – (117) OKLAHOMA at (118) OKLAHOMA STATE 12:00 ET ABC
Oklahoma State is hotter than a Domino’s pizza out of the oven with a 7-0 (6-1 ATS) record since losing at West Virginia. The Cowboys opened as 10.5-point favorites, but are down a digit to 9.5. Oklahoma has the history on their side in the Bedlam Series, but if the number stays or lowers, Oklahoma State is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Update – A slight retreat to a hard 10 across the board and the Cowboys are the bettor’s choice over 55 percent of the time. In addition, the total has been creeping up from 55 to 56.5 as the week has progressed. More than two-thirds think the OVER is the right play. SWM Take – Oklahoma State covers and Over
CFB – (119) MARSHALL at (120) RICE 2:30 ET FSN Affiliates
Despite Marshall being 1-4-1 ATS in away games this season with a .500 record, they have climbed a digit to a 5.5-point road favorite. Even with mediocre road numbers, the Thundering Herd is still averaging 36.3 PPG (52.8 at home) away from home and has speed edges over Rice. However, the Owls are remarkable 26-7 ATS as a home underdog of less than seven and are solid defensively. Update – The Thundering Herd are rumbling, now up to -6.5 almost everywhere, surprisingly with less than 55 percent in their corner. SWM Take – Lean with Rice
CFB – (127) OHIO STATE vs. (128) MICHIGAN STATE 8:15 ET FOX
Ohio State is at the doorstep and likely just has to win to play for the BCS championship. In their way stands the best defensive team all season in Michigan State. Those wagering on football are thinking the Spartans can make it close and dropped them from +6.5 to +5.5. Michigan State is 12-3 ATS away after allowing 14 points or less in last game. Update – Since Tuesday, this line has not wavered, with a touch over 55 percent of the wagers placed on the underdog. SWM Take – Lean with Ohio State
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Arizona State is 16-3 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.
CFB Totals Trend
Oklahoma State is 21-4 OVER at home after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games.
CFB Money Line Trend
Stanford is 9-1 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better the last two seasons.
CFB First Half Trend
Baylor is 6-0 ATS in home games when the first half total is 31.5 or higher this season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
