Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
On Tuesday we had a number of line moves and several were predicated on pitching changes. Here are four that were not. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NBA – (705) SAN ANTONIO at (706) MIAMI 9:05 E ABC (side and total)
Basketball bettors have come away impressed with Miami in evening up the series and have moved them from -4 to -5. The Heat knows if they do not lose at home, they win a third consecutive NBA title, but they understand San Antonio is just like them, hungry and persistent. Despite the line moving towards Miami, the larger share of the wise guy money will be on the Spurs who are 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. The total has also been wagered on enough to be lowered from 198 to 197, with these two clubs 16-5 UNDER in South Florida.SWM Take – San Antonio covers and Over
MLB – (961) WASHINGTON at (962) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 E MASN2, CSN-BA
Baseball bettors were rewarded by taking the hotter offensive team over the better overall club last night and are trolling again in the same direction. In the series opener, Washington won as a growing favorite and this evening they are a shrinking favorite, down from +135 to +120. The Nationals are averaging 6.1 RPG since being shutout by Yu Darvish and will utilize Fister (4-1, 3.19 ERA), having won six of his seven starts. However, San Francisco will not be a pushover, with Madison Bumgarner (8-3, 2.68) going 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last seven starts. Historically, this has not been a great spot for Fister at 8-22 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. (Team’s Record)SWM Take – San Francisco wins
MLB – (969) DETROIT at (970) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 E FSD, CSN-C+
Justin Verlander (6-5, 4.19) has a ghastly 6.75 ERA over his last five starts and match that with a bullpen which is tied for the worst ERA in baseball at 4.69 and you have the real possibility of an OVER. This undoubtedly was a major factor in the total being juiced from 8 to 8.5 and the fact the Tigers are 10-1 OVER after two or more consecutive losses this season. Seemingly, the only way this changes is if Verlander throws like he normally does against the White Sox, being 13-3 with a 2.67 ERA in his last 17 starts against the South Siders. SWM Take – Play Over
MLB – (979) MIAMI at (980) TEXAS 8:05 E FSFL, FSSW
We know Miami is only 11-19 on the road, but they have won eight of their last dozen away and faces an injury-plagued Texas team that is 2-5 on its current homestand and 6-15 at home since April 19. Nonetheless, the Rangers are attracting the majority of the action, up 15 cents to -140 and the reason is….well, we cannot think of one. Overall, the Marlins Tom Koehler (5-5, 3.33) has been better than Colby Lewis (4-4, 5.77) and Miami is a perfect 7-0 this year in interleague action. SWM Take – Miami wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Tampa Bay is 2-13 after batting .240 or worse over a 20-game span this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Milwaukee is 15-4 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
San Diego is 3-16 after two straight games where they committed no errors this season.
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