Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
With six matinees, the baseball evening slate is thinned out, but those wagering on the diamond still made the numbers turn and we have four line moves which got our attention. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (64-47 L28D, 4-0 yesterday)
MLB – (959) COLORADO at (960) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 E ROOT-RM, CSN-C+
With two pedestrian pitchers and the wind blowing right to left and occasionally towards left field, the total on this NL affair has been hiked up from 7.5 to 8. Brett Anderson (1-3, 3.24 ERA) and Travis Wood (7-9, 5.06) might have to go longer than expected if they don’t have their best stuff, after last night’s 16-inning marathon, which taxed both bullpens. Colorado’s Anderson has pitched well in his past two outings, while Wood could be thrown on the wood pile, going 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA in his last seven starts. Though the Rockies are 15-5 UNDER this month, they and Chicago have combined to average 8.9 runs per games against left-handed starters and the Cubs are 18-10 OVER having won two of three, thus, we’ll tag along with move.SWM Take – Lean Over
MLB – (961) ATLANTA at (962) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 E SS, SNLA
With Zack Greinke (12-6, 2.74) 28-7 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the last three seasons (Team’s Record) and 52-14 as a favorite of -150 or more in his career (Team’s Record), it would seem only natural bettors would move him and the Dodgers from -152 to -170. Manager Don Mattingly is ecstatic Adrian Gonzalez is finally finding his stroke, batting .400 in 10 games since the All-Star break. Los Angeles has won four in a row and playing with confidence while Atlanta still cannot average four RPG and they are 5-8 when Alex Wood (7-8, 3.44) is their starter.SWM Take – Dodgers win
MLB – (969) SEATTLE at (970) CLEVELAND 7:05 E ROOT-NW, STO
It would seem it would take a pitcher who has been extremely effective to move Felix Hernandez (11-2, 1.99) and Seattle to diminishing favorites, particularly since they are one the best road bets in baseball at 29-20 (+14.1 units). King Felix has a ‘Mini Me’ 1.36 ERA over his last 13 starts and according to STATS.com, the right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer while completing at least seven innings each time to match Tom Seaver’s major league record set with the New York Mets in 1971. Despite this, the Mariners have slid from -125 to under -110 with Corey Kluber (10-6, 2.77) climbing to the pitching rubber. Kluber is 3-0 in four outings this month, with a 1.97 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 32 innings. The Tribe’s right-hander is 7-2 at home since last season, while the M’s and Hernandez are 8-7 lifetime versus Cleveland. SWM Take – Slight lean with Seattle
MLB – (977) MINNESOTA at (978) KANSAS CITY 8:10 E FSNO, FSKC
This does not occur often, maybe once every two weeks and usually with unusual circumstances. However, the total on this AL Central showdown has collapsed a full run from 8 to 7, which we can partially understand. Danny Duffy (5-10, 2.47 ERA) is the only pitcher in baseball with double-digit losses while posting an ERA below 2.50, thanks (or no thanks in this case) to 2.47 run-support average, which is the worst of any hurler with 15 or more starts. Where this becomes harder to understand is Phil Hughes (10-7, 4.10) has an ERA of 6.31 in his past seven starts and 5.89 against the Royals in his career. At 7.5, I would make the UNDER call for sure, but my numbers call for K.C. to win 5-2, thus this becomes a virtual Push.SWM Take – Slight lean Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The Dodgers are 32-6 vs. a NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the year since last season.
MLB Totals Trend
The White Sox are 14-3 OVER in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Minnesota is 0-12 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.
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