Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
The pennant and postseason races continue to heat up and so do the picks baseball bettors are making, causing several line moves. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (81-62 L36D)
MLB – (907) MILWAUKEE at (908) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 E FSWI, CSN-C
Milwaukee has enjoyed their time at the Friendly Confines the last several years and is 14-7 at Wrigley Field the past three seasons. Nonetheless, we find circumstances which have dropped the Brewers from -130 to -117 favorites. Wily Peralta (14-6, 3.42 ERA) could become the big league’s first 15-game winner, yet he’s 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA in two starts against Chicago this year, the only team to beat him twice. Also, rookie Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks (3-1, 2.10) has thrown well and shown great poise, which could present the home team with an upset opportunity. While we like Hendricks, Peralta and the Brewers are 11-3 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.SWM Take – Lean Milwaukee
MLB – (919) TORONTO at (920) SEATTLE 10:10 E SNET, ROOT-NW
With little surprise, a weary Toronto troop was no match for Seattle last night; however, the betting public thinks the Blue Jays have a shot this evening. Behind J.A. Happ (8-6, 4.09), who owns a 1.71 ERA over his last four starts, Toronto has tumbled from +125 to about +105 at Seattle. While the right-hander has helped the Jays stay in the postseason chase, so has Chris Young (10-6, 3.27) for Seattle, who made the club primarily because of preseason injuries to Seattle hurlers. Young and the M’s are 8-4 at Safeco this season and the Mariners are 6-1 on the current homestand. With Toronto only 9-28 on the road this month since 2012, we’ll back the hotter home team. SWM Take – Seattle wins
MLB – (925) BOSTON at (926) CINCINNATI 7:10 E NESN, FSOH
Though Cincinnati is five games behind Milwaukee in the loss column in the NL Central race, an 8-2 streak pushes the Reds into the running in the division. Cincy is 4-2 in their last six outings and with two games against Boston and four at Colorado, the situation is set up for success. Cincinnati has to go out and perform and more than a few are not convinced a victory tonight is certain. The Reds have rolled from -150 to -125, largely due to a sketchy offense, which averages just 3.8 RPG. While the Red Sox played well in Anaheim in taking that series, Mat Latos (4-3, 3.12) and his teammates are 29-10 at home the past three seasons.SWM Take – Cincinnati wins
MLB – (929) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (930) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 E WGN, CSN-BA
Chris Sale (10-2, 2.14) has been among the best ball-chuckers this campaign, but even those betting baseball are certain the White Sox can win at AT&T Park. The Pale Hose have been pushed from -135 to under -115, with Ryan Vogelsong (7-8, 3.64) posting a 1.71 ERA in his past trio of starts. With both offenses rather dormant the last week, not much to choose from. SWM Take – Slight lean Chicago
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Dan Haran of the Dodgers is 3-14 after a game where he did not walk a batter the last two seasons. (Team’s record)
MLB Totals Trend
Chris Young of the Mariners is 10-1 UNDER at home this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
R. Vogelsong of the Giants is 0-8 in home night games this season.
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