Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves for CFB and Today’s Top Trends

Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves for CFB and Today’s Top Trends

By Doug Upstone

First big weekend of college football and who’s not excited! We have the biggest line moves for the weekend, along with updates that had major moves early in the week. One not on here is Boston College, up from -14.5 to -17 at UMass, but the Eagles are 0-11 ATS as road favorites of four or more points. Gulp! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (105-76 L44D)

CFB – (145) BYU at (146) CONNECTUT  7:00 ET  ESPN  *NEW*

I am the first to realize UConn is 11-1 ATS as home underdog since 2009 and getting this many points in principle it makes sense to support Connecticut. But this is a bad Huskies group with a first year coach in Bob Diaco, taking on a BYU squad that has plenty of offense and should be able to move up and down the field all night long. With the Cougars down from -17 to -14.5, just an easier number for BYU to cover. SWM Take – BYU covers

CFB – (155) PENN STATE vs. (156) CENTRAL FLORIDA  8:30 am ET  ESPN2  *NEW*

This will be a “Top of the morning to ya” special live from Dublin, Ireland with the early start. Central Florida is coming off their best-ever season and coach George O’Leary believes the program is sound enough to move forward with success, even without Blake Bortles. Football bettors are in agreement, at least in this game and lifted the Knights from a Pick to -2. It should be interesting to see how the James Franklin era kicks off at Penn State, however, O’Leary coached teams are 18-6 ATS the first two weeks of the season. SWM Take – Lean UCF to cover

CFB – (157) OHIO STATE vs. (158) NAVY  12:00 ET  CBSSN

This line moving Ohio State from -17.5 to -14 has everything to do with Braxton Miller being lost for the season. The Buckeyes redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett has been heaped with praise since, ascending to the job. But what else is Ohio State supposed to say? The Ohio State defense will be the deciding factor if they are to cover and against a rare veteran Navy squad, whom you have to mentally ready to play a full 60 minutes. Update– As the week has progressed, football betters have becoming more confident in Ohio State and driven them back to -16.5. At last look, 75 percent are backing the Buckeyes. SWM Take – Navy covers

CFB – (159) UCLA at (160) VIRGINIA 12:00 ET  ESPN

When comparing the two teams, UCLA being lowered two points to -21.5 only makes sense if you buy into the handicapping adage of West Coast teams still being sleepy for what for them is a 9:00 am contest on their watches. However, being the first game of the season, this would not seem to be a factor. Virginia has better talent than they have played the past two years, but can they be coached up? Update – UCLA has taken one more tick downward to -21, thus we can only surmise there is more sharp money on Virginia since only one-third of bettors are riding the Cavaliers. SWM Take – UCLA covers

CFB – (175) RICE at (176) NOTRE DAME 3:30 ET  NBC

Other than two years ago, there seems to be always something negative swirling around the Notre Dame campus. Before the season even starts four Fighting Irish players (three starters) are involved in academic scandal. Rice is the defending C-USA champions and while they suffered personnel losses, they are well-coached by David Bailiff and have been dumped from +24 to +21. Oh by the way, the Irish are 18-30 ATS as home favorites the last decade. Update – Those placing football bets are comfortable with this number at three-touchdowns and left it alone. Sixty percent are on Rice.  SWM Take – Rice covers

CFB – (179) ARKANSAS at (180) AUBURN  4:00 ET  SECN  *NEW*

Somewhat surprised to see Auburn as a tumbling home favorite from -21.5 to -18.5 points for these SEC combatants. While it is true QB Nick Marshall will not start because of off the field indiscretions, he almost certainly will play. However, when in doubt, take the points and that is what pigskin bettors did, even if Arkansas does not appear that much stronger than a year ago and is 7-17 ATS the past two seasons.  SWM Take – Lean Auburn to cover

CFB – (187) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (188) PURDUE 12:00 ET  ESPNU

It is not a good sign when two teams are coming off brutal 1-11 seasons and the home team from the superior conference is a dwindling favorite. Yet that is the situation and Purdue is down from -13 to -11. We agree with the logic of those moving the numbers because it is really difficult to back a team whose only win was against a FCS opponent a year ago. Update – Most sportsbooks are down to 10.5, with a couple of the sharper off-shore outlets at 10. Once again more sharp action, with Purdue at 66 percent of bets placed. SWM Take – Lean Western Michigan

CFB – (195) WASHINGTON at (196) HAWAI’I 10:30 ET  CBSSN

With the suspension of expected Washington startering QB Cyler Miles, Jeff Lundquist has won the job for the season opener and football bettors are not impressed. The opening line of the Huskies favored by -19.5 has fallen like a Hawaiian cliff diver to -15.5. Not sure we agree with the move since these Huskies are bigger and stronger at most every position and there defense can limit Hawai’i. Update – The money is starting to circle back to Washington, up to -17.5. A ginormous 95% are supporting the Huskies. SWM Take – Washington covers

CFB – Sunday (207) SMU at (208) BAYLOR 7:30 ET  FS-1

Last year Baylor opened their season by smothering SMU 59-24 as 6.5-point favorites and went on to a Big 12 championship. Those betting football are forecasting more of the same and hoisted the Bears from -31.5 to -33. Coach Art Briles likes offense and is not bashful about scoring points and his teams are 19-6 ATS as home favorites and 8-1 ATS the past three seasons handing out 20 or more points. Update– Steady as it goes, with Baylor still at -33 as the days passed and 93 percent are on the Bears. SWM Take – Lean Baylor to cover

Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Washington, Baylor Marshall, Florida and Florida State

Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Georgia Southern, UConn, Penn State, North Texas and Rice

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

CFB Trend

UTEP is on a 0-9 ATS tailspin as an underdog.

CFB Totals Trend

Bowling Green is 19-6 UNDER the last two seasons.

CFB First Half Line Trend

Marshall is 1-10 ATS in a road games when the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5.

This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.