Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Again this week an absolute ton of movement on Line Moves. Besides what we added, UTSA is down three points to -10 with the uncertainty of their regular quarterback starting and bettors have flipped LSU three points to +1.5-point underdogs. This week I will also cover some totals briefly that have really shifted. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (169-133 L59D)
CFB – (119) TULSA at (120) TEMPLE 12:00 ET ESPN News
Tulsa going from +15 to +17 is a direct reflection of their play, with a 0-4 SU and ATS record since their first contest. Turnovers are a large part of the problem at -9 in those games and it would not appear to help Temple is averaging more than four forced turnovers a contest. The Golden Hurricane is 4-13 ATS since last season. Update – A couple of public offshore books are at 17.5, otherwise the adjusted number of 17 has held and 64 percent are flying with the Owls. SWM Take – Temple covers
CFB – (121) MID. TENN. STATE at (122) MARSHALL 12:00 ET FSN Affiliates *NEW*
Marshall’s offense has been virtually unstoppable in averaging 47.6 PPG and if the Blue Raiders can allow 35.4 PPG in their last five contests, what chances do they have in containing the Thundering Herd on the road where they are 7-0 ATS? With M.T.S. 0-6 ATS on the road after a conference clash, Marshall is up three points to -24.5. SWM Take – Lean Marshall
CFB – (133) CINCINNATI at (134) MIAMI-FL 12:00 ET FSN Affiliates/W-ESPN
Two parts to this puzzle why Cincinnati has blown up from +11 to +14.5. One is the status to Bearcats quarterback Gunner Kiel since he is the triggerman of the offense for Cincinnati. The other is the abhorrent Bearcats defense which ranks 127th in total defense in college football. Cincy is 1-13 ATS on the road when they allow 35 to 41 points. Update – The most common numbers at this point have the ‘Canes at -16.5 or -17 and 85 percent are in their corner. SWM Take – Lean Miami
CFB – (147) TCU at (148) BAYLOR 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 *NEW*
As I predicted in August, TCU was going to be one of the most improved teams in the country and football bettors think they can spook Baylor, even in Waco, where they are 12-0 ATS as home favorites recently. The Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS against the Bears and they are down to +8 from an opening number of +11. SWM Take – TCU covers
CFB – (147) NORTH TEXAS at (148) UAB 3:30 ET CSCN+ *NEW* (side and total)
On Tuesday, UAB was up one point to -4.5, but by Wednesday evening they had shot to -6.5. Bettors took a close look at the Blazers six-turnover upset loss to Florida International and forgave them and instead were more impressed in UAB staying within 13 points at Mississippi State and upsetting Western Kentucky on the road 42-39 last week catching +9.5. What does not align properly with the side shifting is the total dropping an amazing five points to 57.5. UAB is offensive-minded and while North Texas is only averaging 15.5 PPG on the road, that was against Power 5 competitors. SWM Take – UAB covers and Over
CFB – (169) WASHINGTON at (170) CALIFORNIA 6:00 ET PAC-12N (side and total now)
California has been elevated from -1 to -3 and the only conclusion one can make is football bettors are wondering if Washington is able to keep up with the Golden Bears 50 points a game pace. It is a legitimate point, but in the Huskies favor is they only have one turnover on the year. Cal has not beaten Washington since 2008. Update – This has to be a case of sharp money backing the Bears who are at -4 or -4.5, yet with just 54 percent backing. Going against the grain here. Also, the total has tumbled from 73 to 70, with the thinking Huskies coach Chris Peterson will attempt to control the tempo with the running game averaging 207.6 YPG. SWM Take –Washington covers and Under
CFB – (173) LOUISVILLE at (174) CLEMSON 3:30 ET ESPNU
Clemson might be as improved as any Power 5 team from the start of the season until now, which is why those betting football are at ease lifting the Tigers from -10 to -11.5. Dabo Swinney’s squad has improved in all facets, but Louisville leads the country in total defense and gets starting QB Will Gardner back. Clemson is 9-1 ATS having won three of four. Update – By Wednesday, the value of taking the nation’s No. 1 team in total defense with double digits had evaporated, down to +9.5. Fifty-three percent have sided with the Cardinals. SWM Take – Lean Louisville
CFB – (181) ARKANSAS STATE at (380) GEORGIA STATE 2:00 ET W-ESPN
Georgia State is only 1-4 on the season, but have covered three straight double digit spreads, the last two on the road and has been dumped from +14 to +10 in Sun Belt action. The Panthers defense is not good, but the offense is averaging 30.3 PPG which might be enough to hang with Arkansas State, who has not gone past 28 points since Game 1. Update – A couple sportsbooks have gone backwards to 10.5, but 10 seem to be the perceived market value and just over half prefer the road favorite. SWM Take – Georgia State covers
CFB – (189) AIR FORCE at (190) UTAH STATE 10:15 ET ESPNU
The betting public is skeptical about Utah State’s upset at BYU and has sent the Aggies from -9 to -7 at home for this MWC matchup. Instead they like what they saw in Air Force engineering two home upsets of Boise State and Navy. However, Utah State is 15-5 ATS as favorites since 2012. Update – Not unexpectedly, Utah State is back to either -7.5 or -8, though only one-third of bettors are with the Aggies. SWM Take –Utah State covers
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CFB – (199) COLORADO STATE at (200) NEVADA 10:30 ET CBSSN (side and total now)
Nevada gave it their all in trying to take down Boise State, but came up five points short. Nonetheless, the public has been swayed and considerably so in re-racking the Wolf Pack from +1 to -2 versus Colorado State. I look at the Rams and see a 14-5 ATS record, who has won three of their last five trips to Reno. Update – Colorado State is up a modest amount to -2.5, but the bigger news is the total exploding from 59 to 64.5! The Rams and Wolf Pack can both move the pigskin, but are ordinary in the Yards Per Point category (77th and 60th respectively). Nonetheless, CSU is 6-0 OVER in road games versus teams allowing 425 or more yards a game, with the average total score 79.5. SWM Take – Colorado State covers and Over
Totals Talk – On Friday night, UNLV is up three points to 65.5, as 67 percent of bettors are not sure either defense will make headway in the MWC matchup…..Duke’s 93rd ranked run defense has caused consternation and helped lift the total from 58 to 61.5…..With Kansas offense limitations and Oklahoma State not as explosive as the past, the total has sunk from 50 to 47.5….Certain bettors are saying both the West Virginia and Texas Tech defenses have no chance and pounded the total from 73 to 78. Why do I say “certain”, because 60 percent are backing the UNDER…..Both Connecticut and Tulane has offensive shortcomings and the number has collapsed from 45 to 41.5, with 86 percent support.
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 15-14) – Georgia Southern, Okla. State, UAB, Iowa State and Oklahoma
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 18-12) – Florida Int., New. Mex. State, Old Dominion, Penn State and Washington State.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Indiana is 0-13 ATS after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards in last game.
CFB Totals Trend
Arkansas State is 21-4 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in last game.
CFB First Half Trend
Mississippi State is 21-4 ATS after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight contests.
MLB Money Line Trend
- Bumgarner and the Giants are 12-0 in road games vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse this season.(Saturday)
MLB Totals Trend
Kansas City 30-13 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season.
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