Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
As has been the case since late August, we have nice variety of sports betting on options on Thursday in the various sports and we have all the line moves covered. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (183-141 L61D)
NFL – (303) N.Y. JETS at (304) NEW ENGLAND 8:25 ET CBS
New England is not going to continue to falter because media types say they are in decline. Sure the Patriots are not the same team they used to be and injuries are not helping matters, but the Jets, please! Though this division confrontation is on an 8-1 OVER roll, New York’s sorry offensive state has helped lower the total from 47 to 44.5. Update – The initial line move was from 47 to 45.5, however by Wednesday, it was evident rain were a certainty, with an 80 percent chance and “Heavy at times”, which pushed the total to present level of 44.5. What is unusual, three-quarters of wagers placed are still on the OVER, suggesting wise guys money who are wearing rain gear. SWM Take – Slight lean Over
CFB – (305) VIRGINIA TECH at (306) PITTSBURGH 7:30 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh has lost three straight after starting 3-0, yet nobody is sold on Virginia Tech being a good club and football bettors have adjusted the Hokies from -3 to -1. The Panthers are still a solid defensive squad and playing at home could be a difference-maker against Virginia Tech who is 1-8 ATS as road favorites since 2012. Update – For a time yesterday, Pittsburgh was a one-point favorite but by early this morning this ACC affair was a Pick and as this was being finalized, more than two-thirds of sportsbooks had Virginia Tech at -1. Just under 70 percent are backing the Hokies. SWM Take – Pittsburgh covers
CFB – (307) UTAH at (308) OREGON STATE 10:00 ET FS2/PAC-12N *NEW*
Utah is 4-1 SU and ATS and if you have not seen them play, the Utes are no longer the plodding team that entered the Pac-12 a few years ago and they have a lot of speed. This has improved their defense especially and they have held opposing teams to 6.1 PPG below their scoring average. Oregon State has faced a somewhat less demanding schedule than Utah to this point; nevertheless, the Beavers defenders have eagerly held opponents 63 yards below their season numbers. Patch these two elements together and it is easier to understand why the total is down two points to 52.5. SWM Take – Play Under
MLB – (969) ST. LOUIS at (970) SAN FRANCISCO 8:05 ET FS1 *NEW*
Baseball bettors are like sharks today, smelling the blood in the water, in this case Cardinals red blood, with St. Louis facing an elimination game on the road. They have boosted San Francisco from -125 to over -150 on the money line, totally enamored with the Giants about to make a third World Series appearance in five years and having Madison Bumgarner (20-11, 2.76 ERA) on the hill. Bumgarner is 2-1 with a sick 0.76 ERA this postseason and in his last four playoff starts, opposing teams are hitting .152 against. Before you run out like obviously many others have, consider the San Fran lefty is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA at AT&T Park in the postseason for his career and even this year he was 7-6, 4.03 at home and on the road 11-4, 2.22 during the regular season. Adam Wainwright (20-10, 2.59) takes the ball for the Cards and is known as big game hurler, but is battling a tender elbow which has caused him to alter his mechanics. SWM Take – Lean San Francisco
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Totals Trend
San Francisco is 8-0 UNDER if their bullpen has pitched 13 or more innings in their last three games.
NFL ATS Trend
The N.Y. Jets are 0-7 ATS playing against a team with a 60% to 75% win percentage since 2012.
CFB ATS Trend
Oregon State is 2-9 ATS at home vs. teams who average 200 or more rushing yards per game.
CFB Totals Trend
Pittsburgh is 9-0 OVER at home after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games.
NHL Money Line Trend
Boston is 10-0 off a road win against a division rival the last two seasons.
NHL Totals Trend
Ottawa is 15-3 OVER after scoring one goal or less in their previous game the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
