Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Sadly, it is the last weekend of college football (sorry Army and Navy, great spectacle but one game does not a weekend make) and we have the latest line moves. But cheer up, in two weeks the bowl season begins. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (272-218 L84D)
CFB – Friday (105) NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. (106) BOWLING GREEN 7:00 ET ESPN2
The Huskies will not be dogs in the MAC title tilt, elevated from -5.5 to -6.5 over Bowling Green. Reasons as to why include Northern Illinois on a six-game winning streak with the defense forcing turnovers and the offense converting into points. The Falcons have lost two in a row and NIU losing in this same contest to Bowling Green 47-27 a year ago. Update – Modest buyback to 6 points with 66 percent on the favored Huskies. SWM Take – Northern Illinois covers
CFB – Friday (107) ARIZONA vs. (108) OREGON 9:00 ET FOX *New*
The wagering public is siding with the Ducks; unconvinced Arizona has the slightest chance to knock off Oregon three times in 54 weeks. They have taken Oregon from -13.5 to -15 and somewhat naturally, the total is also on the rise, up two points to 74. There are more than a few sharps who believe the Wildcats 3-3-5 defense confuses the Ducks offense with its variables and both defenses are not very strong in allowing 430 yards per game. My feeling is this game is either a 10-point outcome or 20+, not close to the number. SWM Take – Leans with Arizona and Under
CFB – (109) SMU at (110) CONNECTICUT 12:00 ET CBSSN
Connecticut is 2-9 SU and ATS, only scored 15.1 points a game yet they are a growing favorite. The Huskies are up a digit to -12.5 because SMU is the worst team in country at 0-11 and is being outscored by a ginormous 33.7 PPG. The offense averages a 9.6 PPG, which is punier than Rob Lowe’s arms in the latest Direct TV commercial. Update – A few dissenters have lowered this unimportant contest to -12, otherwise 12.5 is the number. Just over 60 percent riding the Huskies. SWM Take – Lean Connecticut
CFB – (111) IOWA STATE at (112) TCU 12:00 ET ABC
This is not a spot many coaches enjoy, but TCU’s Gary Patterson understands his team has to win by a larger margin over Iowa State to have a chance to secure a Final Four bid in its final impression. Football bettors concur and lifted the Horned Frogs from -32.5 to -34. TCU is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home this season and needs to run up the score. Update – Some bigger offshore books at 34.5, otherwise 34 has been the number. Six out of 10 tickets printed on the Horned Frogs. SWM Take – Lean TCU
CFB – (117) KANSAS STATE at (118) BAYLOR 7:45 ET ESPN *New*
Baylor has been lowered from -9 to -7.5, but there are two schools of thought on this important Big 12 confrontation. One is the Bears need to crush Kansas State to impress the committee and needs some help and they will be very focused to ensure this happens. The other is K-State wants severe payback from two years ago when Baylor spoiled there perfect season and the Wildcats have the defense and offense to pull this off and ruin the Bears season. SWM Take – Lean Kansas State
CFB – (119) OKLAHOMA STATE at (120) OKLAHOMA 3:30 ET FS1
The Bedlam game carries little importance outside Oklahoma this year, except to those betting football, who have shoved the Sooners from -17.5 to -19. With two back-up quarterbacks starting, Oklahoma’s superior running game, better defense and playing at home is considered the difference. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS over Oklahoma State the last decade in this conflict. Update – Football bettors have been undeterred and sent this contest to 21 points. Sharp money for certain on this one, with less than 45 percent backing Oklahoma. SWM Take – Oklahoma covers
CFB – (121) LOUISIANA TECH at (122) MARSHALL 12:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
In the last 24 hours, Marshall has gone from a Thundering Herd to a couple of stray cattle, dumped from -12 to -10. It is well know unbeaten teams losing late in the season are seldom a good wager in the next contest and Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS on the road this season and could make Marshall feel even worse. SWM Take – Louisiana Tech covers
CFB – (127) WISCONSIN vs. (128) OHIO STATE 8:15 ET FOX *New*
The total is down from 54 to 52.5 which is no surprise as bettors wonder about inserted quarterback Cardale Jones and also thinking the Ohio State defense will have to be superb to contain the Wisconsin running game. The side and total might be the hardest calls of the weekend in college football. SWM Take – Lean Under
CFB – (129) FRESNO STATE at (130) BOISE STATE 10:00 ET CBS *New*
It’s not often a game moves three-points when “only” 66 percent of bettors are supporting a team, but this is precisely what is occurring with Boise State. The Broncos opened at -19.5 and are up to -22.5, meaning the earlier 37-27 result at the same venue carries no weight. Fresno State being 2-12 SU and ATS since 2001 might have something to do with it. SWM Take – Lean Boise State
Top 3 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 35-33-2) – Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois and Boise State
Top 3 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 36-33-1) – Arizona, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Houston is 9-0 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
Boise State is 9-0 OVER after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since last season.
CFB First Half Trend
Oregon is 7-0 ATS after playing two straight conference games this season.
CFB 6-Point Teaser Trend
Boise State is 31-3 in home games off two straight wins against conference rivals.
CFB 6-Point Teaser Totals Trend
Oklahoma is 17-0 UNDER in December games since 1992.
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