Ross Benjamin’s Blog of the Week
For you people out there who don’t believe in NFL angles, or don’t know the difference between an angle and a trend. You can stick this in your pipe and smoke it. Any playoff away underdog (Seattle) that was coming off a playoff home underdog SU win is now 0-10 SU&ATS since the 1982 playoffs. The average margin of victory by the favorite in that situation going into yesterday was by 19.7 points per game. If you watched yesterday’s game you know the game wasn’t as close as the 35-24 score would indicate.
I took a lot of criticism from clients yesterday who questioned my selection on the Jets +9.0. There’s no way that line should’ve been that high to start with. It’s always easy to say after the fact. However the books banked on the fact the general public would jump all over New England based on their 45-3 thrashing of the Jets in the first week of December. Truth told that playoff teams that play good defense, have a solid running game, and are a touchdown or more underdog have tremendous value at this time of year. I personally thought this game would go down to the wire. I would be lying if I said I thought the Jets would dominate in the fashion that they did.
Can you believe both #1 seeds getting knocked off in their first playoff game (Atlanta and New England). Even more alarming is that both #6 seeds (Green Bay and New York) are in the conference championship games. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that both #6 seeds will meet in the Super Bowl for the first time ever. If you had the guts to make a wager on the Jets before yesterday’s game to win the Super Bowl you would’ve received 15-1 odds. Hindsight always has 20/20 vision especially in sports wagering.
I really think my Syracuse Orange are going to get exposed at Pitt tonight. The undefeated (18-0) Orange are 4.5 point underdogs and rightfully so. I think Pitt has far more offensive balance and they are just as good on the defensive end. Syracuse star forward Kris Joseph is also questionable after banging his head on the floor in Saturday’s home win over Cincinnati.
My early picks for the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament are Ohio St., Duke, Kansas St., and Texas. My Elite Eight would also include Pittsburgh, Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. Has there been a more underachieving team so far this season than Michigan St. You just have to know Tom Izzo will have this veteran club peeking at tournament time. They are currently listed at 10-1 to win it all. The most intriguing odds of my Elite Eight selections to go the distance is Wisconsin at 75-1. There’s no doubting they lack the speed and athleticism of a lot of the elite clubs. They do have size, can shoot the three-ball very well, play very good defense, are disciplined, and have an underrated head coach in Bo Ryan.
Ross Benjamin
Join Ross today by clicking the link below:
http://www.rocketmansports.net/sportscapping.php?capper/capper/409/RossBenjamin/AF26_160