Baseball Handicapping: Is a Numbers Game
Baseball Handicapping: Is a Numbers Game
By Ross Benjamin Unlike any other sport that I handicap statistics are the most important factor as it applies to baseball. The intangible factors like revenge or emotion for example that are key components when handicapping football/basketball is of little or no importance in baseball.
It all starts with pitching. Specifically the most important factors pertaining to that subject is starting pitching then followed by the bullpen’s performance levels. Quite simply put without a good performance from your starter it minimizes how much a factor a good bullpen can be. Conversely without a bullpen that’s capable of holding a lead, or lacking the ability to shut down an opponent in order to give their team a chance to come from behind, then the strength of a quality starting pitching performance gets minimized.
There are several factors when evaluating starting pitchers. The first of which I look at are recent performances most notably the last 3 starts. A pitcher’s WHIP is a very important statistic. Quite simply WHIP stands for walks and hits divided by innings pitched. The number I use as a guideline when evaluating WHIP is 1.50. Any WHIP less than that number over the last 3 starts I deem to be good. Obviously the lower the WHIP over the last 3 starts the stronger I consider that starting pitcher’s recent performance level to be. Very seldom can I ever consider WHIP to be a misleading statistic. In isolated cases a pitcher’s WHIP will be very good and his ERA doesn’t indicate that to be the case. I can assure you if that’s the case that starter has given up his share of home runs in recent starts. The flip side of that is when a starter’s ERA is very good and his WHIP is more than 1.50 in recent starts. That’s a red flag that indicates to me that his ERA is very misleading. He’s given up more than his sure of hits, in addition to walking several hitters, but was able to work himself out of several jams over his last 3 starts. If he continues to pitch at that level then it’s a matter of time before it catches up to him.
Then we must look at a team’s recent performance level. I start with how a team has been hitting over it’s last 10 games. The most important factors being average runs scored, team batting average, and then how they’re hitting with runners in scoring position. When it applies to runs scored I put more emphasis on consistency over the last 10 games more so than a per game average. A team can be averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 10 games but that can be misleading due to a possible huge output in 2 or 3 of their last 10 games that drives that average up to look more impressive than it normally does. I put more stock in how many times a team has scored 5 runs or more in a game over the last 10 games. Quite simply I am more impressed with a team that scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games, than a team that averages 6.0 runs per game over that span because they scored 37 runs combined in 3 of those games, and just a combined 23 runs in the other 7.
Then there’s my list of golden rules. I don’t ask bad teams to do good things for me. I don’t play on teams that have lost 5 games or more in a row. I avoid using any pitcher that has walked more men than he’s struck out over his last 3 starts. I avoid any team that’s hitting less than .200 over their last 10 games. With very few exceptions I avoid taking any favorites of greater than -150.
Like with any good chef who doesn’t disclose all his recipes a handicapper doesn’t reveal all his secrets. However if you stick to the basic strategies I have given you in this article then rest assured you will never starve. Like in any aspect of sports handicapping proper money management and discipline are the key to success. In addition remember that wagering on sports is not a sprint it’s a marathon.
It all starts with pitching. Specifically the most important factors pertaining to that subject is starting pitching then followed by the bullpen’s performance levels. Quite simply put without a good performance from your starter it minimizes how much a factor a good bullpen can be. Conversely without a bullpen that’s capable of holding a lead, or lacking the ability to shut down an opponent in order to give their team a chance to come from behind, then the strength of a quality starting pitching performance gets minimized.
There are several factors when evaluating starting pitchers. The first of which I look at are recent performances most notably the last 3 starts. A pitcher’s WHIP is a very important statistic. Quite simply WHIP stands for walks and hits divided by innings pitched. The number I use as a guideline when evaluating WHIP is 1.50. Any WHIP less than that number over the last 3 starts I deem to be good. Obviously the lower the WHIP over the last 3 starts the stronger I consider that starting pitcher’s recent performance level to be. Very seldom can I ever consider WHIP to be a misleading statistic. In isolated cases a pitcher’s WHIP will be very good and his ERA doesn’t indicate that to be the case. I can assure you if that’s the case that starter has given up his share of home runs in recent starts. The flip side of that is when a starter’s ERA is very good and his WHIP is more than 1.50 in recent starts. That’s a red flag that indicates to me that his ERA is very misleading. He’s given up more than his sure of hits, in addition to walking several hitters, but was able to work himself out of several jams over his last 3 starts. If he continues to pitch at that level then it’s a matter of time before it catches up to him.
Then we must look at a team’s recent performance level. I start with how a team has been hitting over it’s last 10 games. The most important factors being average runs scored, team batting average, and then how they’re hitting with runners in scoring position. When it applies to runs scored I put more emphasis on consistency over the last 10 games more so than a per game average. A team can be averaging 6.0 runs per game over the last 10 games but that can be misleading due to a possible huge output in 2 or 3 of their last 10 games that drives that average up to look more impressive than it normally does. I put more stock in how many times a team has scored 5 runs or more in a game over the last 10 games. Quite simply I am more impressed with a team that scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games, than a team that averages 6.0 runs per game over that span because they scored 37 runs combined in 3 of those games, and just a combined 23 runs in the other 7.
Then there’s my list of golden rules. I don’t ask bad teams to do good things for me. I don’t play on teams that have lost 5 games or more in a row. I avoid using any pitcher that has walked more men than he’s struck out over his last 3 starts. I avoid any team that’s hitting less than .200 over their last 10 games. With very few exceptions I avoid taking any favorites of greater than -150.
Like with any good chef who doesn’t disclose all his recipes a handicapper doesn’t reveal all his secrets. However if you stick to the basic strategies I have given you in this article then rest assured you will never starve. Like in any aspect of sports handicapping proper money management and discipline are the key to success. In addition remember that wagering on sports is not a sprint it’s a marathon.
Thank You:
Ross Benjamin
Join Ross daily at
http://www.rocketmansports.net/sportscapping.php?capper/capper/409/RossBenjamin/AF5_165
