John Ryan’s Arkansas/Ohio State CFB Bowl Preview!
College Football betting Preview
By John Ryan
All State Sugar Bowl
(6) Ohio State versus (8) Arkansas
(7) 8:30 PM ET, January 3, 2011
Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Ohio State favored by 3 1/2 points -100 with a 57 point total
Ohio State is playing in their sixth straight BCS bowl game while Arkansas is making their BCS debut. Interesting too is that Ohio State has never defeated a team from the Southeastern Conference in a bowl game sporting an 0-9 record. Ending this horrid streak is certainly one of their top priorities entering this game.
This game will feature two of the top quarterbacks in the country in Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor and Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett. Both are finalists for the Manning Award that is presented to the nations’ top quarterback. The Manning award is named after the accomplishments of Archie Manning and his two famous sons Peyton and Eli. The award was founded and is sponsored by the All State Sugar Bowl and is the only award taking in consideration the athlete’s bowl performances along with the entire season results.
No Suspensions?
In a highly controversial decision the NCAA disciplined Pryor and four other Ohio State players with a five game suspension that begins with the first game of the 2011 regular season schedule. The players violated NCAA rules by selling Championship rings, jerseys, and awards and received undisclosed benefits from a tattoo parlor. Despite all of these rules violations that they stated were not known to them the NCAA has decided to allow them to play in this year’s Sugar Bowl.
My personal view of this matter is significantly different than the result, but it is still a distraction that will follow the team everyday leading up to kickoff.
Pryor and Mallett
Although Pryor and Mallett are elite college quarterbacks they have differing styles of play. Mallett is a traditional drop back passer with tremendous accuracy and very quick release while Pryer is a scrambler with erratic accuracy.
There is no doubt that the junior Arkansas quarterback will go in the first round of the NFL draft. Mallett is 6-6 and weighs 238 pounds so he can take hits from linebackers and bounce right back up for the next play. He threw for 3,592 yards with 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and just 21 sacks while attaining a remarkable 170.5 quarterback rating.
Pryor has nearly the same size at 6-6 and 233 pounds, but has far better mobility and speed. He is similar to Auburn’s quarterback Cam Newton, but obviously not nearly as good. He has been largely inaccurate on several occasions in several games and is akin to how Donavan McNabb played while at Syracuse. Pryor has attained a 157.98 quarterback rating, which is the highest of the three season he has played quarterback at Ohio State.
National Rankings and Stats
With Mallett leading the offense the Razorbacks rank third in passing nationally gaining 338.4 yards per game. Most teams that are pass dominated normally have a weak running offense, but the Razorbacks rank a solid 65th in rushing gaining 150.8 yards per rush. The offense has attained the 16th best scoring offense at 37.3 points per game. Their defense has been quite good as well, especially considering they played the majority of their games in the SEC, They rank 44th in scoring defense allowing 22.8 points per game.
The inaccurate passing of Pryor has made the Ohio State offensive more dedicated to the running game. They rank 55th in passing nationally gaining 229.2 yards per game and 14th in rushing gaining 219.7 yards per game. The offense, however has been quite efficient ranking 11th best scoring 39.4 points per game. The Ohio State scoring defense ranks third best allowing 13.3 points per game.
Yards Per Points Favors the OSU Defense
The yards per point stat can offer greater insight into these bowl matchups, especially when compared to opponents that are now playing in bowl games. Generally, a number of 15 reflects the average college team. When speaking of offensive results a number blow 15 reflects an increasingly prolific and explosive offense. Numbers that are above 15 reflects an offense that struggles to sustain drives and score points.
Arkansas has posted a 13.3 yards per point result and Ohio State has posted a 12.6 yards per point result. This reflects that both teams are explosive with Ohio State just slightly stronger.
The glaring difference between these two teams is on the defensive side of the ball. Arkansas has recorded a defensive 13.6 yards per point reading while OSU has recorded a defensive reading 17.8 yards per point. This means that offenses have had to work harder to score points when facing the Ohio State defense However, Arkansas has played a significantly tougher schedule and their only two losses have come at the hands of Auburn and defending National Champ Alabama.
Ohio State was manhandled in their only loss at Wisconsin losing 31-18 and Wisconsin lost to Mountain West Champion Texas Christian New Year’s Day 21-19. So, by deduction Arkansas’ losses have been against stronger opponents so the defense is not necessarily as weak as the yards per point stat indicates. Still, I give a modest edge to Ohio State on the defensive side of the ball.
Technical Considerations
The Big Ten had arguably the worst New Year’s Day performance in the history of the conference losing every bowl game and some were blowouts. I think this is a direct reflection that the SEC is a far stronger conference than the SEC and it will show again in this game. Moreover, Arkansas has had a month to prepare for the game and to design formations and new looks to exploit the Ohio State offense. My simulator also shows a high probability that they will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Arkansas is 13-4 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons.
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