NBA Playoff Preview – Eastern Conference
#8 Philadelphia (35-31 SU) vs #1 Chicago (50-16 SU) The Bulls have a done a great job this year considering they played almost half the year with the reigning MVP Derrick Rose. Tom Thibodeau is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA and Chicago will go as far as their defense takes them. Chicago is #1 in defensive efficiency and allows a league best 88.4-ppg. By playing great defense this allows their team to be in just about every game they play even if their offense is not clicking. Derrick Rose led the Bulls in scoring at 22.2-ppg but missed most of the year because of injury and rest. Lual Deng and Carlos Boozer are having solid years and have picked their team up in Rose’s absence. The Bulls are rated #6 in offensive efficiency and get a lot of 2nd chance opportunities because they lead the NBA in offensive rebounding. Philadelphia plays great defense as well as they are rated #2 in defensive efficiency and #2 in points allowed at 89.2-ppg. They really like to slow the pace down when they play as they are rated #28 in possessions per game. Philly is rated #17 in offensive efficiency and #22 in scoring at 93.8-ppg. If you like defense and low scoring games, then this is the series for you. If the Bulls struggle to score this could be an interesting #1 vs #8 series. The Bulls have more talent and the experience to get it done.
Prediction: Chicago in 5
ATS Trends: Chicago: 39-27 ATS; 18-15 home; 21-12 away Chicago: 32-34 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 17-16 away Philadelphia: 34-32 ATS; 17-16 home; 17-16 away Philadelphia: 29-36 ATS; 11-22 home; 18-14 away
#5 Atlanta (40-26 SU) vs #4 Boston (39-27 SU) Atlanta will be the #5 seed but will have home-court advantage in this series. Atlanta has done a great job without their top rebounder Al Horford being out most of the year with an injury. Horford is not expected to play in this series. Atlanta is rated #16 in offensive efficiency and #6 in defensive efficiency. Defense is what matters in Boston as they are ranked #2 in defensive efficiency and #3 in points allowed (88.9-ppg). Look for this to be a defensive and a possession by possession grind out series. Boston is rated #24 in offensive efficiency and #26 in points per game (91.9-ppg). Boston is looking to make one final run with the Big 3 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce). These two teams are evenly matched and will get after it defensively. We will call for the “upset”.
Prediction: Atlanta in 6
ATS Trends: Boston: 33-32 ATS; 18-15 home; 16-17 away Boston: 29-35-1 Over-Under; 13-19-1 home; 16-17 away Atlanta: 35-29-2 ATS; 17-16 home; 18-13-2 away Atlanta: 34-32 Over-Under; 19-14 home; 15-18 away
#7 NY Knicks (36-30 SU) vs #2 Miami (46-20 SU) The Knicks have had a roller coaster season when you talk about injuries and a coaching change and more injuries. With Amare back in the lineup look for the Knicks to be a better rebounding team with him back. Carmelo Anthony is stepping up and leading this tean but the Knicks will only go as far as their bench will take them. Novak and Smith are keys for the Knicks and now Mike Bibby is getting minutes. The Knicks are a team that has evolved from just focusing on offense and not caring about defense to putting most of their focus in defense under interim coach Mike Woodson. The Knicks are a surprising #5 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. That will be the key for them in this series. With Melo leading the way the Knicks are rated #11 in offensive efficiency. Miami has a lot of pressure on them this year and it is championship or bust for them. After losing in the NBA Finals last year look for them to make a solid run this year. Miami matches up well against the Knicks as they are 3-0 SU this year. No on one the Knicks can stop Lebron or Wade and that will be the difference in this series. Miami gets after it defensively allowing 92.3-ppg and rated #4 in defensive efficiency. The Heats offense has slowed down a bit from the beginning of the year as they looked like they wanted to run and gun every game. The Heat are rated #5 in offensive efficiency and should be well rested to put up some big numbers in this series.
Prediction: Miami in 5
ATS Trends: Miami: 32-34 ATS; 18-15 home; 14-19 away Miami: 25-39-2 Over-Under; 10-23 home; 15-16-2 away NY Knicks: 35-30-1 ATS; 20-12-1 home; 15-18 away NY Knicks: 27-29 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 12-21 away
#6 Orlando (37-29 SU) vs #3 Indiana (42-24 SU) We all know the story about Orlando and the drama that surrounded Dwight Howard. Howard is out for the playoffs and Orlando is really hanging on by a thread. Defensively, with Howard not in the lineup, the Magic have been horrible. Overall, Orlando is rated #13 in defensive efficiency. That numbers drops considerably with Howard not playing. Orlando can’t outscore teams either. Overall, they are rated #15 in offensive efficiency. Indiana is a team that is flying under the radar. Led by Danny Granger (18.7-ppg) and four others that avg in double-figures, this is a team that can score as they are avg 97.7-ppg and rated #8 in offensive efficiency. Indiana should breeze through this round and they will give the Heat all they can handle in the conference semi-finals.
Prediction: Indiana in 5
ATS Trends: Indiana: 32-34 ATS; 15-18 home; 17-16 road Indiana: 34-30-2 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 18-14-1 away Orlando: 34-32 ATS; 17-16 home; 17-16 away Orlando: 35-30-1 Over-Under; 20-12-1 home; 15-18 away
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