NFL Preseason Pointers
The pro football preseason kicks off this weekend (and it’s about time)! Remember that each season is different, with players changing teams, new coaches and assistants coming aboard, and star college players joining the pros as highly touted rookies. August football offers fans their first peak at all the new additions.
This weekend, the defending Super Bowl champion Packers at the Browns. However, it’s Week 1. You’re likely to see far more of Matt Flynn and Seneca Wallace behind center than QBs Aaron Rodgers and Colt McCoy lighting up the skies.
The Dolphins are hosting the Falcons. Atlanta was a No. 1 seed in the NFC last January, before the Packers smoked them, and the Falcons made huge waves during the draft by trading for rookie WR Julio Jones, a talented target for Matt Ryan. They let two wideouts walk (Brian Finneran, Michael Jenkins), a challenge for the offense with so many new young faces. You won’t recognize the Miami backfield, either, with Ronnie Brown leaving and newcomer Reggie Bush coming aboard and offensive linemen Jake Long is recovering from injury.
Jacksonville is heading to New England. The Patriots made waves by adding Ocho Cinco and talented/troubled lineman (Fat) Albert Haynesworth. Preseason is a time to watch for strategic changes. For instance, the Pats may experiment with two down linemen, Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork up front, freeing up an extra linebacker or safety to roam, a hybrid ‘D’ that the Packers tried so well a year ago.
Coach Jack Del Rio has a reputation as a defensive wizard, but this team slipped to 23rd in total defense in 2009 without DT Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, and was fifth worst in yards last season. Preseason is different, though, and keep in mind the fiery Del Rio is 21-11 SU, 21-10-1 ATS in August.
The Eagles and Ravens battle it out. Philadelphia has dealt away two talented starting quarterbacks in each of the last two seasons, dealing away QB Donovan McNabb in 2010 and this offseason sending Kevin Kolb to Arizona. That means they are putting all the chips on Mike Vick, so second-year QB Mike Kafka will see far more time as they can’t risk letting Vick get banged up in August. Speaking of which, coach Andy Reid historically cares less about preseason with a record of 19-29 SU, 20-28 ATS in August.
Of course, starters won’t see a lot of time just yet, and for good reason. Who can forget eight years ago when Vick, then the starter in Atlanta, suffered a serious injury in August, wrecking his season? No coach wants to jeopardize his job and no owner wants to risk his investment by losing a star player to a devastating exhibition injury.
The Rams have invested a lot in QB Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, as do the Lions with Matt Stafford, so getting them experience is important, but so is keeping them healthy. Still, with coaches rotating players, examining depth, testing new game plans, and individual athletes battling for roster spots, there’s plenty of competition in August.
There is one game with a lot of travel to take into consideration: The 49ers travel from the West Coast down to the Bayou to play the Saints. Arizona is hosting Oakland and the Raiders have had a lot of personnel moves for new Head Coach Hue Jackson. Last week Oakland lost the best free agent still on the market, Pro Bowl tight end Zach Miller, to the Seahawks. Miller caught 60 passes for 685 yards and five touchdowns in 2010. Last year’s Raiders Coach Tom Cable, now the offensive line coach with Seattle, was the main reason Miller made the jump. Cable and the Seahawks already had plucked free-agent guard Robert Gallery, who didn’t re-sign with the Raiders, plus they lost Pro Bowl cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha when he signed with the Eagles.
Another thing to keep an eye on is personnel changes. Three years ago the Saints loaded up in the offseason trying to improve a defense that was 26th overall. They moved up in the draft to take USC nose tackle Sedrick Ellis with the 7th pick, along with DT DeMario Pressley (5th round, NC State) and CB Tracy Porter to improve the 30th ranked secondary. It took just one season for those moves to pay big dividends as the Saints attacking style defense under their new defensive coordinator went on to win the Super Bowl.
The Redskins are at home against the AFC Champion Steelers, so the crowd will likely be fired up. Mike Shanahan is an impressive 18-11 SU, 16-12-1 his last seven preseasons. On the other hand, the Washington QB rotation has Rex Grossman, Kellen Clemens, John Beck and rookies Ben Chappell and Marc Verica. Good luck, Mike!
Also, keep an eye on home field play. In August of 2004, home teams went 21-10-1 against the spread the first two weeks of preseason. Six years ago, the home team went 10-5 SU/ATS the first week of exhibition play, and in 2006 went 11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS. Last season home teams went 11-5 SU/ATS in Week 1.
Sometimes coaches are disappointed with their team’s first game, particularly if it’s a road loss, and they want to see a more determined effort in Game 2, especially if it’s in front of the home fans. This happened three years ago when Philadelphia looked sloppy in a 29-3 loss at Baltimore in the exhibition opener. A week later, at home, Andy Reid demanded a better effort and the Eagles destroyed Carolina, 27-10. There are edges in August football, you just have to know where to look and what to look for.
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