Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends

Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends

By Doug Upstone

We have kicked off the season, now let’s kickoff the first big weekend of college football. Today we recap what has occurred from earlier in the week and review what has happened since around the gridiron.  We ask you to review all the line moves and we also share our opinions on the outcomes.

CFB – Friday (153) TEXAS TECH at (154) SMU 8:00 ET  ESPN

After three so-so seasons, Tommy Tuberville bolted Lubbock which might turn out to be a blessing for Texas Tech. This enabled the Red Raiders to bring in former star quarterback Kliff Kingbury to take over as head coach. Texas Tech does have better talent than SMU, however, being a road touchdown favorite with a new signal caller and a defense learning its fifth system is five years, left football bettors wondering and they moved T-squared to -5.5. Update– The slide has continued with most offshore books down to SMU catching four points, with a few at +4.5. SWM Take – Lean with SMU

CFB – (163) FLORIDA INT. at (164) MARYLAND 12:20 ET ESPN3 (new)

Maryland opened at 19.5 and during the week jumped four points to 23.5. The Terps Randy Edsall is considered a good coach and though the first two years have not gone anywhere near as planned, ACC observers are impressed with his recruiting efforts and see them improving this season. Retread Ron Turner takes over as head coach at FIU and he’s done little to distinguish himself other than being able to draw a check as a football coach. Lines that move in this range with a total between 49 to 50 points favor the favorite with a 7-1 ATS record. SWM Take – Lean with Maryland

CFB – (171) ALABAMA vs. (172) VIRGINIA TECH  5:30 ET ESPN

Based on the last several years, this is likely to happen often in 2013. Top-ranked Alabama has been elevated from -17.5 to -19.5 against Virginia Tech for their meeting in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are a known quantity, which is not the case with the Hokies who have question on the offense and are coming off a shaky .500 regular season. The Virginia Tech defense might be the best in the ACC to give the Hokies a chance to cover. Update– The Tide is rolling, up to -22.5 points backed by almost 80 percent bets placed on them. SWM Take – Lean with Alabama

CFB – (175) PURDUE at (176) CINCINNATI 12:00 ET  ESPNU

Cincinnati might have lost their head coach, but Tommy Tuberville, at least by reputation is one heck of a replacement. Purdue on the other hand has a hot shot replacement in Darrell Hazell, who worked wonders at Kent State. Hazell might be able to repair the Boilersmakers in time, just not by the season opener and the Bearcats have risen from -7.5 to -10.5 home favorites. Update– We found a few sportsbooks raising the Bearcats to -11, otherwise -10.5 has held steady with two-thirds betting the home team. SWM Take – Cincinnati covers

CFB – (177) KENTUCKY vs. (178) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:00 ET ESPN NEWS/ESPN3

This is an interesting confrontation of Commonwealth State competitors with many ways to view outcome. Both teams have new coaches which alone has to create doubt for each team. Western Kentucky is the more veteran team and on the upswing after two winning seasons. Kentucky has more total team talent, yet it is impossible to ignore the Hilltoppers are 13-1 ATS as underdogs, explaining in part why they have fallen from +7 to +4 for this neutral site contest. Update– About half the wagering outlets checked have moved the Wildcats back to -4.5 with almost 65 percent support. Interesting to note more than 85 percent are on the OVER for this contest.  SWM Take – Western Kentucky covers

CFB – (181) MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. (182) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET  ABC/ESPN2

Oklahoma State might not be playing in Stillwater, yet they are still drawing ample support as a favorite over Mississippi State. The Cowboys were released at -11 and have been pushed to -12.5. College football bettors assume Okie State will score, but the most important factor is they are 30-14 ATS as a double digit favorite since 2003. No question coach Mike Gundy wants to set an early tone as the Big 12 favorite this season. Update- On Thursday we found several books at 13.5 or 14, but that number has been quelled and the Cowboys are priced anywhere from 11 to 12.5. SWM Take – Oklahoma State covers

CFB – (195) WASHINGTON STATE at (196) AUBURN  7:00 ET ESPNU

Auburn will have a more uptempo offensive look with Gus Malzahn as head coach and having 16 returning starters will make the transition possibly somewhat smoother. Those betting football are not 100 percent sure the Tigers will be ready from the first whistle and dropped them from -17 to -15.5. Washington State has the offensive weapons to maybe stay under the number with presumed starter Connor Halliday. Update- Roughly half the books checked has lowered the Tigers to -15, with the total up three points to 62. Visitor wagered about 60%, with the total approaching 90% with the new figure. SWM Take – Washington State covers.

CFB – (207) LSU vs. (208) TCU 9:00 ET  ESPN

After spring football, LSU was being overlooked by other SEC programs. As fall practice started, the view point on the Tigers changed and they have gone from an afterthought and are being respected by sharps and the football betting public alike. The thought process is Les Miles still wins and will have good to possibly very good players and this has caused the line to leap from -3 to -4 or higher on LSU. Update- Last week I wrote an article saying nobody was saying anything about LSU and since, everybody is saying nobody is talking about LSU. All this non-talk briefly elevated the Tigers to -6 at several books yesterday before coming back to -5. SWM Take – Lean with LSU

CFB – (209) BOISE STATE at (210) WASHINGTON 10:00 ET FS1

This is supposed to be Washington’s best squad under coach Steve Sarkisian and they drew the home favorite role of -5.5 over a Boise State crew which is a bit of a mystery. However, U-Dub is a fair 7-5 ATS home favorite under ‘Sark’ and is only 3-8 ATS if handing out single digits the past decade. This will be only the fifth time the Broncos will be a road underdog with coach Chris Peterson (3-1 ATS) and they are down to -3. Update– As of Wednesday, Washington locked into -3.5 and has remained there. Just over 50 percent of bettors are on the away team. SWM Take – Washington covers

CFB – (211) NEVADA at (210) UCLA 10:00 ET PAC12N  (new)

Chris Ault spent 28 years as head coach of Nevada and developed the Pistol Offense, while on his way to the college football Hall of Fame. Ault retired and his replacement is Brian Polian, who has never been a head coach, anywhere. (We checked Pee Wee football also) They travel to UCLA who made a quantum leap a season ago and has far bigger plans for the future. Little wonder the Wolf Pack went from +18 to +21, especially with the Bruins 15-4 ATS in home openers. SWM Take – UCLA covers

CFB – (213) NORTHWESTERN at (214) CALIFORNIA 10:30 ET  ESPN2

Having met with Vegas sharps this past weekend, many of them are high on Northwestern. The Wildcats were released as field goal road favorites and that number has doubled to -6. Cal has 12 starters back, but is learning a completely different offense and defense which is causing doubts. Just remember the ‘Cats are 4-7-1 ATS as away favs under exuberant Pat Fitzgerald. Update- The number has held steady all week, however, there is talk this is all public money and wise guys might make a move on the underdog Saturday though the spread number is not real inviting. SWM Take – Lean with California

CFB – Monday (219) FLORIDA STATE at (220) PITTSBURGH  8:00 ET ESPN

While most preseason magazines have Clemson winning the ACC, Las Vegas wise guys are keen on Florida State. More than one person I spoke said – “This will be Jimbo Fisher’s best team..” even with redshirt freshman Jameis Winston the starting quarterback. Winston’s abilities are immense and the Seminoles have been pushed from -7.5 to -10. Defensively, Pittsburgh can present issues with experience and size, but too much FSU speed, will be the difference. Update– About 30 percent of the wagering outlets remain at 10, with the rest at 10.5 or 11. This could well go higher by Monday. SWM Take – Florida State covers (current price)

Betting Notes – UMass has almost 60% support receiving 44.5 points…..Temple is the same catching +30…..Over 90 percent on UAB as an underdog….Over 95% on North Texas as favorites…..Over 80 percent of bets are on LSU, Northwestern and New Mexico.

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

CFB ATS Trend

Urban Meyer is 35-10 ATS in non-conference games as head coach.

CFB Totals Trend

Iowa is 16-3 UNDER the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

CFB Money Line Trend

Nevada is 1-13 in first road game of the season.

CFB First Half Trend

Northwestern was 10-1 ATS on the first half line last year as quick starters.

This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.