Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
We have the full package of line moves we presented from earlier and those which has sprung up as the week has moved ahead like Wyoming up 4.5 points to 28.5 against Idaho after playing Nebraska close. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
CFB – Friday (483) CENTRAL FLORIDA at (484) FLORIDA INT. 8:00 ET CBSSN *New
These two Sunshine State universities have met the past two years and though Central Florida has been the better team, they have failed to cover and even lost in Miami two years ago 17-10 as 6.5 point road favorites. But that was against a far better Florida International outfit which was 8-5 compared to this talent malnourished squad and the Golden Panthers up two points to +26. Even though FIU is not a good team under first year coach Ron Turner, you wonder if Knights might be dreaming about a trip to Penn State next week instead. SWM Take – Lean with FIU
CFB – (323) WEST VIRGINIA at (324) OKLAHOMA 7:00 ET FOX
West Virginia scored a late touchdown to defeat William & Mary 24-17 as 32-point favorites and Oklahoma shutout the 32nd best total offense from a year ago in UL-Monroe, who had the vast majority of their starters back on offense. The Sooners were hit hard moving from 17.5 to 20 points and we don’t believe this number is finished going up. Update– Boomer Sooner has continued to rise and is up to -21, with over 80 percent support from bettors. SWM Take – Oklahoma covers
CFB – (329) UTAH STATE at (330) AIR FORCE 3:30 ET CBSSN
If you saw Utah State against Utah, you were able to see what a marvelous talent of Chuckie Keeton is as a multi-purpose quarterback. This likely had an influence in the Aggies being raised from -7.5 to -9.5 and there is little doubt Utah State has better athletes. Yet, Air Force is normally competitive and is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog with coach Troy Calhoun. Update– After briefly flirting with 10 points Thursday night into Friday morning, the revised figure is the visitor favored by 9.5 with less than 30 percent riding Utah State. SWM Take – Air Force covers
CFB – (333) OREGON at (334) VIRGINIA 3:30 ET ESPN2
In a space of eight days, Virginia will face two teams which are polar opposites. BYU is physical, but lacks real foot speed at most positions. Up next is Oregon, who is super quick and F A S T! Little wonder the Ducks went from -22 to -24 at the university conceived by Thomas Jefferson. Think Road Runner vs. Wile E. Coyote. Update– Midweek, handicapping stories began to circulate Oregon having to travel this far East might be a larger detriment than first thought. The Virginia defense has also gotten more praise as the week advance and there has been a slight pull back to -23. SWM Take – Oregon covers
CFB – (343) TEXAS at (344) BYU 7:00 ET ESPN2
Texas awoke from their slumber and laid 56 straight points on New Mexico State and gave at least some substance they should a Big 12 contender. With the Longhorns blowout victory and BYU unable to win as a field goal favorite at Virginia, the Cougars have gone from +4.5 to +7 in Provo. The Horns look like the play, yet BYU has covered seven in a row as a dog. Update– On Thursday night, Texas crept all the way to -8, before settling back to touchdown favorites. Almost 90 percent of wagers placed are on the Horns. SWM Take – Texas covers
CFB – (345) UAB at (346) LSU 7:00 ET ESPNU *New
The Tigers were impressive against a good TCU squad in victory and gave credence to the notion they might be much better than anticipated. LSU has been jacked from -34 to -36 against UAB, who have a good offensive club, but doesn’t compare talent-wise to the Tigers. Historically, LSU wins 80 percent under lights in Baton Rouge, yet is only 7-11 ATS when doling out 20 or more points since 2008 and the Blazers are 6-0 ATS off a cover where the team lost as an underdog the last two seasons. Of note, the wagers placed are running 50-50. SWM Take – Lean with UAB
CFB – (351) ARKANSAS STATE at (352) AUBURN 7:30 ET ESPN3.com *New
With Auburn having a harder time than expected with Washington State, those studying the college football lines have less faith in the Tigers and dumped them from -13 to 10.5. Auburn did have three interceptions last week, however, the secondary was still torched for 339 yards. Arkansas State prefers to travel on the ground (509 yards rushing last week), which might benefit the Tigers, yet the Red Wolves are very profitable 10-2 ATS on the road the past two years. SWM Take – Arkansas State covers
CFB – (361) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (362) TENNESSEE 12:21 ET ESPN3
Western Kentucky threw Bobby Petrino a life-line and he grabbed it to reconstruct his coaching career. His first game proved he still have the Midas touch in upsetting Kentucky 35-26. The next assignment is in Knoxville and the Hilltoppers are a burgeoning dog, up to +14 from +12.5. WKU is 8-0 ATS as road pooch, nevertheless, a rugged task. Update– The orange checkerboard money began to emerge later in the week and the Volunteers have been built back to -13.5, with just 40 percent of the wagers placed. SWM Take – Lean with Western Kentucky
CFB – (363) LOUISIANA at (364) KANSAS STATE 6:30 ET FS1
It was presumed Kansas State would not match last year’s successful campaign, but losing outright to North Dakota State (No.1 in FCS) was still a stunner. Coach Bill Synder might be older than Manhattan, KS, yet he can still fire up the Wildcats troops off loss and has been moved up from -7.5 to -10, in spite of the Ragin’ Cajuns being 10-2 ATS as underdogs. Update– The love for the old coach and his team continued, recently seen at -10.5, with nine of 10 bets placed on the Wildcats. SWM Take – Kansas State covers
CFB – (375) WASHINGTON ST. at (376) USC 10:30 ET FS1
For those East of the Mississippi River who stayed up late last Thursday watching their wager on USC and Hawaii, you noticed the Trojans have quarterback problems. With Washington State covering against Auburn, skittish point spread players lowered USC from -17 to -15.5. The Men of Troy are 3-11 ATS since last season, yet have crushed the Cougars by over 32 PPG in last eight meetings. Update– After several days to ponder, the betting public is basically 16 in Vegas and 15.5 offshore, backing the Trojans. SWM Take – USC covers
Betting Notes – More than 85 percent of football bettors prefer Oklahoma State and the same is true of North Carolina and Tulane…..Though UNLV has been a live home dog in recent years, they are drawing less than 15 percent support….. In the three big games of the day, Florida is bit over 60% at Miami, Georgia is slightly under 60% versus South Carolina and MEEchigan is being hit two-thirds of the time…..Matchups with high probabilities of going Over are these home teams- Kentucky, Ohio U., North Carolina, Illinois, Memphis, Virginia, Ohio State and Oregon State…..LSU and Air Force are the only two games where the Under is the heavy wager.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Northwestern is 12-1 ATS in last 13 Saturday tests.
CFB Totals Trend
Penn State is 9-0 UNDER in non-conference clashes the past three years.
CFB First Half Trend
Virginia is 0-7 ATS in home games after they forced one or less turnovers the last time out.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
Get FREE MLB picks and FREE NCAAFB picks and FREE NFL picks at http://www.rocketmansports.net
Be sure to check out Doug Upstone and get all his plays for this weekend here:
http://www.rocketmansports.net/sportscapping.php?capper/capper/410/DougUpstone/AF5_165
