Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
As will be our custom on Wednesday’s, we will review the biggest line moves on sides and totals for the upcoming week and return over the weekend with updates and our free picks. In addition, we will supply you with some of the top trends in baseball today. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
NFL – (199) TENNESSEE at (200) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
The Titans used three tight ends against Pittsburgh fairly often and might be inclined to do again and maintain the kind of pace they prefer. Houston is still a run first-team which can chew up the clock. These characteristics have helped those betting on football lower the total from 45.5 to 43. Let’s consider teams like the Texans when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, who are off a no-cover victory, playing against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog. This football totals system finds the UNDER 40-14, 74.1 percent, the last 30 years.
NFL – (203) BUFFALO at (204) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
Carolina was ridiculously conservative in their opener (three passes beyond 10 yards) and the Buffalo equipment manager had to order the team all new shoes after the Bills repeatedly shot themselves in the feet in the last second loss to New England. With neither offense thought to be ballistic, the total has dropped from 45 to 43.5. Taking the total at face value and the Panthers favored by 3, we should have a 23-20 final and the two teams are a combined 20-1 OVER when they and the opposition scores 20 or more points past few years.
NFL – (209) DALLAS at (210) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET FOX
With a couple of Dallas players nicked and Kansas City dissolving Jacksonville, the Chiefs have been bumped from -1 to -3 for their home opener. K.C. is 28-13 ATS in non-conference home games the past 20 years, but the Cowboys are a sparkling 7-2 ATS versus the AFC lately. At first glance this line seems off in favor of Dallas, but checking most published internet power ratings finds the line pretty accurate.
NFL – (213) NEW ORLEANS at (214) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET FOX
In the past nine meetings between these NFC South rivals, the UNDER is 8-1. Why than would the total rise from 46 to 48 points? Good question, unless New Orleans is being thought of as the dominant team. The Saints are 15-6 OVER after beating the spread and 22-10 OVER after division home triumph. But Tampa Bay has to be bitterly disappointed in literally giving away a victory and after last week’s result; they are 31-11 UNDER the first two weeks of the season.
NFL – (215) DETROIT at (216) ARIZONA 4:05 ET FOX
Reggie Bush sparked the Detroit offense with almost 200 yards of offense, as the Lions were sharp in the opener. Arizona hired Bruce Arians to be their coach; nevertheless, it was still the same old Cardinals who blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead at St. Louis. Detroit players believe they will have a bounce back year and so do bettors this week, raising the Lions from a Pick to -1.5. Here is the issue with backing Detroit; they are 1-10 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.
NFL – (217) JACKSONVILLE at (218) OAKLAND 4:25 ET CBS
Jacksonville started where they left off last year in being smoked at home by Kansas City 28-2. With Oakland providing a representative effort against the Colts, the Raiders were moved from -3.5 to -6. Here is question of the day; can you really back a team like the Raiders who are 9-23 ATS as a home favorite since 2003? Let’s call this the – Pick your Poison Play of the Week!
NFL – (219) DENVER at (220) N.Y. GIANTS 4:25 ET CBS
The next Manning Bowl is the doubleheader game and there is expected to be no shortage of points. The original number of 54.5 has been replaced by 56. This seems like an overreaction to last week’s results in which the Direct TV stars combined to throw for 11 touchdowns (12 if you include the Cowboys Pick Six of Eli), as both QB’s helped there teams crush the total. However, I did find the Giants are 8-1 OVER after a division loss by seven or less points with the average total score at 58.8.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Dan Haren and Washington are 0-10 vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game this season.
MLB Totals Trend
C.J. Wilson and the Angels are 11-1 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Jose Fernandez and Miami are 15-2 when the total is seven or less this season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
