Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Big favorites Stanford, Florida State, Northern Illinois and Arkansas continue to swell, making them hard to wager on one way or the other unless somebody has a real feel for the contest. Instead, we have three new games which have seen line moves along with those from earlier in the week. Also, be sure to check back for the NFL Line Moves this weekend. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
CFB – (117) LOUISVILLE at (118) KENTUCKY 12:00 ET ESPN
There are whispers among college football experts that Louisville might be even better in 2013, playing with the confidence of last year’s experience. The wagering public is also buying in and has elevated the Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals from -11.5 to -14.5. Kentucky can cover if they protect their quarterback Mark Smith, who is in charge of the “Air Raid” attack. One huge negative on the Wildcats in this Bluegrass State battle, they are 0-9 ATS record as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Update – After going as high as 16 points, Louisville has receded to mostly -14.5 or -14. They are attracting a whopping 90+ percent of the wagers. SWM Take – Louisville covers
CFB – (125) VIRGINIA TECH at (126) EAST CAROLINA 12:00 ET FS1 *New
While nobody disputes the quality of the Virginia Tech defense, there are still many doubters about the offense and QB Logan Thomas. This combination of factors has helped lower the total from 51.5 to 48.5. The thinking is the Hokies stud defense can contain East Carolina and will Thomas be able to succeed with limited weapons at his disposal. Virginia Tech is 18-8 UNDER after playing two straight non-conference games. SWM Take – Play Under
CFB – (135) FRESNO STATE at (136) COLORADO 2:00 ET PAC12N *New
Fresno State was thought to be a dark horse to sneak into the BCS bowl mix before the season. However, after failing to cover the spread in both outings and being out-gained on each occasion, they have lost the football bettors trust and been lowered from -10 to -7.5 in Boulder. Colorado is rebuilding under first-year coach Mike McIntyre and they have shown positive signs of the program heading in the right direction. The Buffs are 0-6 ATS where Ralphie hangs outs (the buffalo) after a playing a game where they scored 60 or more points, yet they were demolished by the Bulldogs 69-14 last year and are seeking revenge. SWM Take – Lean with Colorado
CFB – (139) UCLA at (140) NEBRASKA 12:00 ET ABC
This line move shows a lack of faith in the Nebraska defense even playing with redemption against the Bruins. The Cornhuskers were sent out at -6 and have been lowered to -4. The Huskers struggled with Wyoming’s multiple offense in the opener and UCLA has many of the same characteristics to move the ball. The Bruins have not taken to the road well with a 0-7 ATS mark after a cover and they are 4-17 ATS away after a bye week. Update – The march continues with visiting UCLA down to +3.5 and +3 at some sportsbooks. The battling Bruins are receiving better than 70 percent support. SWM Take – Lean with UCLA now
CFB – (141) GEORGIA TECH at (142) DUKE 3:30 ET ESPNU *New
With starting quarterback Anthony Boone (broken collarbone) out for Duke, it is curious the total moved upward two points to 58. All week, reports out of Durham have the players and coaches singing the praises of backup Brandon Connette, who is a better runner and plays best when the action is less structured. “We’re not worried about Brandon,” Duke offensive guard Dave Harding said. “He’s smart, too. We know what he has to do as the starting quarterback.” Those wagering are also convinced and Georgia Tech is 12-2 OVER after playing a game at home. SWM Take – Play Over
CFB – (143) TENNESSEE at (144) OREGON 3:30 ET ABC
Oregon displayed blinding speed and great strength in overwhelming Virginia 59-10 on the road. Now back home in Eugene, football bettors give Tennessee no shot to complete and took the Vols from +24.5 to +28. Making matters worse, the Volunteers are 0-7 ATS after one or more wins against the spread the last two seasons. The Ducks fly in 20-4 ATS after leading their last two games by 14 or more points at the half. Update – After flying high, the Ducks have splashed and level off at -28. The original total of 70 has been upped to 72. SWM Take – Lean with Oregon
CFB – (163) MEMPHIS at (164) MID. TENN. STATE 7:00 ET CSS
Memphis looked very much like the same old Memphis in losing to Duke at 28-14. Middle Tennessee State also was defeated at North Carolina, but they were catching the Tar Heels off a disappointing performance against South Carolina. Though the Blue Raiders are just 2-9 ATS playing at home the past two years, they were lifted from -4.5 to -7 vs. the unsavory Tigers. Update – This doesn’t happen in Las Vegas much anymore, but a few books still have Middle Tennessee State favored by a touchdown while others are up to 8.5. Will the money end up following everywhere on the Blue Raiders? SWM Take – M.T.S. covers
CFB – (169) TULSA at (170) OKLAHOMA 12:00 ET ESPN2
It was a given Oklahoma would be more of a running team this season with the quarterbacks on the roster. Trevor Knight won the job over Blake Bell for his all-around skills; yet displayed little accuracy before being hurt against West Virginia and Bell was not much of an improvement. While the Sooners have the better talent in this matchup, how Oklahoma scores enough is the reason the line to be lowered two points to 24.5. Update – A slight decrease by about half the places I checked taking bets down to -24. Boomer Sooner though is still catching 70+ percent support. SWM Take – Lean with Oklahoma
CFB – (177) KANSAS at (178) RICE 7:30 ET CBSSN
If you saw Rice at Texas A&M, you know the Owls can move the pigskin and score points. With Kansas only having two starters back on defense, Rice is expected to score and has been lifted from -4 to -6.5. It does not hurt the Owls are 12-4 ATS at Rice Stadium as favorites since 2003. Update – For the most part, the 6.5 has held, with a sprinkling of 6’s and 7’s around. The Owls are at almost 75 percent of bets placed. SWM Take – Rice covers
Betting Notes – At this time, Rutgers, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Northern Illinois and Arkansas are all being betting on over 80 percent of the time. Home teams being supported in the same manner on the OVER are, Army, Michigan, Indiana, Auburn, Memphis, Kansas State, Rice, LSU, Utah and Arizona. Those putting their money down heavily on UNDER’s, are backing New Mexico State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina and Iowa State.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Northwestern is on an epic 14-1 ATS run.
CFB Totals Trend
Fresno State is 22-5 OVER in September road games.
CFB Money Line Trend
Iowa is 2-8 after one or more straight up wins the last two seasons.
CFB First Half Line Trend
Virginia Tech is 11-1 after allowing 225 or less total yards in two consecutive contests.
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