Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Large favorites like Georgia, Penn State, Cincinnati and Baylor have kept growing, thus we will stay away from them and talk about three new matchups which have seen the numbers switched around. We also have all the latest updates on games we previewed the other day along with our free picks. Be back here Sunday when we cover the NFL. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (315) TENNESSEE at (316) FLORIDA 3:30 ET CBS
Off their worst loss in a century, Tennessee has to regroup for their SEC opener against Florida. The Vols were no match for Oregon and will face Florida, who is anxious to resume play after losing to the Hurricanes in their last outing. The Gators opened at -14.5 and were moved to -17, being the more powerful squad. Florida is 6-2-1 ATS vs. the Vols and have won eight straight. Update – After reaching its apex, Florida is coming back towards the starting point. Most Nevada books are at 16 and offshore books are showing 15. SWM Take – Lean with Tennessee
CFB – (323) PURDUE at (324) WISCONSIN 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Video provided evidence Wisconsin was jobbed out of chance to upset Arizona State by dopey Pac-12 officials. The Badgers move on and begin the Big Ten season against Purdue, who gave good accounting of themselves in loss to Notre Dame. With the Boilermakers 0-7 SU and ATS versus Wisconsin and being outscored by 22.8 PPG, the Badgers have grown two points to -24.5. Update – This Big Ten opener has regressed back to 23 points at most outlets and the wagering is nearly 50-50. SWM Take – Wisconsin covers
CFB – (329) MARSHALL at (330) VIRGINIA TECH 12:00 ET ESPNU *New
Marshall might have lost their first game last week, but they are still averaging 46 points a game and facing a Virginia Tech squad who has problems finding the end zone and football bettors are playing the road underdog. The Thundering Herd was an 11-point dog and they have been drifting downward all week, now sitting at +8.5. The Hokies defense can certainly limit the Marshall offense to a degree, but is QB Logan Thomas and the Virginia Tech offense good enough to be giving more than a touchdown? The Herd is just 8-20 ATS in road games after playing a non-conference game. SWM Take – Marshall covers
CFB – (347) HAWAI’I at (348) NEVADA 8:00 ET
Hawai’i returns to the mainland for a Mountain West matchup with Nevada. The Wolf Pack has been slammed by two ranked opponents and routed Cal-Davis, leaving most wondering how good they really are. The Rainbow Warriors have yet to win, but have covered two times against Pac-12 competition. With the uncertainty about Nevada, they have been lowered two points to -11. Update – The fallout on Nevada has continued, sliding all the way to -9. Just over 60 percent action on Hawai’i. (Glad they are the Rainbow Warriors again). SWM Take – Lean with Hawai’i
CFB – (357) KANSAS STATE at (358) TEXAS 8:00 ET ABC/Split
It is troubling times in Austin with the Texas football program coming apart at the seams and no relief in sight. Frankly, the Longhorns players are not tough enough and have one of the worst run defenses in the country. Coach Bill Snyder can sell his team on the fact they know how to beat Texas (5-0 SU and 6-0 ATS of late). Texas has tumbled from -7 to -4.5. Update – Some faith in Texas has been restored, with two-thirds of the books at -5.5 and the balance at -6. Kansas State is still at over 65 percent of bets placed however. SWM Take – Lean with Texas
CFB – (365) ARKANSAS at (366) RUTGERS 3:30 ET ESPN *New
With both starting quarterbacks injured last week and their availability uncertain, Arkansas was make a one-point favorite based primarily on the strength of the SEC. As the week progressed, the Razorbacks Brandon Allen has been moved to doubtful status, while Gary Nova has been upgraded to probable. With this news, the Scarlet Knights are now a 1.5-point favorite. SWM Take –Rutgers covers
CFB – (375) TULANE at (376) SYRACUSE 12:30 ET FSN Affiliates
Evidently beating Wagner 54-0 carries weight with those betting football and they lifted Syracuse from -12.5 to -14.5 over Tulane. The Green Wave had an impressive win at Louisiana Tech and its defense has forced 11 turnovers in three games, which could be an equalizer. However, Tulane is 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. Update – In the battle of colorful nicknames (literally), the Orangemen are putting the squeeze on the Green Wave, up to a 16-point home favorite. Almost 65 percent prefer the ‘Cuse. SWM Take – Lean with Tulane
CFB – (381) OREGON STATE at (382) SAN DIEGO STATE 7:30 ET CBSSN
Oregon State put it together and upset Utah in OT 51-48 on the road. The Beavers offense finally clicked and will take on San Diego State, who’s looked miserable in two tries and committed nine turnovers. Oregon State has been elevated from -9 to -11.5, despite a 9-23 ATS road record the first month of the season. The Beavers are 17-4 ATS after conference win of seven or less. Update – Trepidation has set in on the favorite and bettors are no longer eager beavers to back Oregon State and the spread is back to its starting point of nine. The underdog Aztecs are being chosen close to 60% of the time. SWM Take – Oregon State covers
CFB – (383) AUBURN at (384) LSU 7:45 ET ESPN
After being undervalued before the season, those days are over for LSU with a potent offense and a defense to match. The Tigers start SEC action with Auburn and have been pumped up from -16 to -18. While we know who the better team is in this conflict, LSU is 12-22-1 ATS as a conference favorite since 2003. Update – Those wagering on college football have split the difference and made the Bengal Tigers a 17-point choice. SWM Take – Lean with LSU
CFB – (387) MISSOURI at (388) INDIANA 8:00 ET BTN *New
This should be a highly entertaining shootout and tell us about both clubs before they begin conference action. Missouri has QB James Franklin back and they are 26-11 ATS in non-conference play since 2005. The Tigers opened as a five-point road fave and they have plummeted in popularity like J.C. Penny’s, down to single digit. Coach Kim Wilson promised exciting offensive football as coach of the Hoosiers and he’s kept his word. Indiana is averaging 50 PPG. The Hoosiers however are still underdogs and they are 0-8 ATS when receiving less than 10 points after consecutive home games. SWM Take – Missouri covers
CFB – (389) NEW MEXICO ST. at (390) UCLA 10:30 ET PAC12N
After running off 38 straight points against Nebraska, UCLA is being bashed with like Chris Davis hits a fastball, run up three points to -43. Clearly, their performance on the road opened a lot of eyeballs and in this contest; the Bruins can name the final score against an extremely overmatched opponent. New Mexico State is 2-11 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in three straight outings. Update – A minor buyback, with the Bruins at -42.5 points. SWM Take – Slight lean with New Mexico State
Betting Notes –So far, the Under is 89-60-1 in college football…..FCS teams are 41-34-2 ATS against the “superior” FBS football programs….Teams which are betting wagered on 80 percent or more of the time are Georgia, Western Michigan, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Baylor and Toledo….. The Top 5 wagered OVER plays are on these home teams: Baylor, Indiana, UCLA, Texas Tech and Georgia Tech…..The Top 5 UNDER bets placed are on UNDER are these home teams: Syracuse, Akron, Minnesota, Memphis and Virginia Tech.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
San Jose State is 9-0 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
Baylor is 9-0 OVER after a win by 21 or more points the last three seasons.
CFB Money Line Trend
Kansas State is 5-0 as a road underdog the past three years.
CFB First Half Line Trend
Utah State is 10-0 in the first half of the season the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
