Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Here is the latest information concerning all college football line moves, with several new games, plus updates on those we had previously. Also, review the Top Trends, always useful. Be back here Sunday for the Week 4 NFL Line Moves update. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – Friday (107) MID. TENN. STATE at (108) BYU 9:00 ET ESPNU *New
The Cougars might only be 1-2, but they are thought to be the vastly superior team and are receiving the support of those betting college football. BYU was 21.5 point home favorite and been jumped two points to -23.5. The Cougars have the much better defense (44th vs. 93rd) and have the nation’s No. 8 rushing attack. While BYU is 6-0 ATS after one or more losses, they are known for being too comfortable in Provo and are 2-10 ATS after two straight home games. SWM Take – Lean with Mid. Tenn. State
CFB – (125) EAST CAROLINA at (126) NORTH CAROLINA 12:30 ET ESPN3
North Carolina played a strong first half against Georgia Tech before wearing down on both sides of the ball. This is not the same offensive team as a year ago, even with an experienced quarterback like Bryn Renner. Nonetheless, those betting football still think the Tar Heels have enough to closeout East Carolina and moved UNC from -10.5 to -12. Update – No stopping the betting momentum of the Tar Heels in this matchup, now up to -13 at many locations, despite having less than half the bets placed. SWM Take – North Carolina covers
CFB – (137) IOWA at (138) MINNESOTA 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Iowa has not won four in a row since 2009 and is seeking respectability again in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes opened as a Pick and have been lifted to -1. This could be important as since 2003, Iowa is 6-13 ATS as a road favorite. Minnesota has not started 5-0 in nine years and a rivalry game win all but assures the Golden Gophers of another bowl bid. Update – Over 80 percent of the sportsbooks have moved Iowa to -2 over just over 60 percent backing. SWM Take – Minnesota covers
CFB – (139) UTEP at (140) COLORADO STATE 3:30 ET CBSSN
Colorado State is only 1-3, yet they have the opposite record against the spread at 3-1. The Rams have played a more challenging schedule to date and they have been bumped from -12 to -14 against UTEP. The Miners are not a very good football team, yet are 24-17 ATS as away underdogs the past decade and might be worth a peek. Update – A very modest buyback to 13.5 at roughly half the wagering outlets checked. SWM Take – Lean with Colorado State
CFB – (143) ARIZONA at (144) WASHINGTON 7:00 ET FOX *New
Washington is starting to look like more of a threat than first thought in the Pac-12 North. The Huskies have an excellent offense run by QB Keith Price and the defense has been much tougher and physical than presumed. Arizona has beaten three clubs which barely draw a notice and traveling for the conference opener might be an overwhelming task. That is precisely what football bettors are thinking, shifting the Wildcats from +7 to +10. Hard to argue with Washington 11-3 ATS at home. SWM Take – Washington covers
CFB – (145) MISSISSIPPI at (146) ALABAMA 6:30 ET ESPN *New
In the past few years, the only time an Alabama spread heads south is when they are favored by 30+ points and could be disinterested. The Crimson Tide have rolled from -17 to -14.5 against Ole Miss, because there are questions about the Bama offensive line and how their corners will hold up against better than average Rebels receivers. Also, Nick Saban knows about the talent on the Mississippi defense, he tried hard to recruit three starters to Tuscaloosa. The Rebels are 12-4 ATS under coach Hugh Freeze, but the Tide is even sharper 15-3 ATS after a pair of non-covers as a favorite when they won. SWM Take – Lean with Alabama
CFB – (147) CALIFORNIA at (148) OREGON 10:30 ET PAC-12N
While the Bears have shown the ability to score points, they are allowing 42 a game, which spells trouble heading to Eugene. Oregon is averaging 61.3 PPG and has the ability to produce scoring drives in seconds as opposed to minutes. The Ducks have flown from -35.5 to -38 and are 15-2 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Update – Not unexpectedly, the Ducks money is flying south, down to mostly -37, with a 3-to-1 ratio on bets placed. SWM Take – Lean with Oregon
CFB – (155) OKLAHOMA at (156) NOTRE DAME 3:30 ET NBC
Back in July, the Golden Nugget released 250 college football game odds and Notre Dame was listed as a two-point favorite for this conflict. Not anymore, with the Irish laboring on offense and defense, they are up to +3.5 at home against the Sooners. Notre Dame is an undesirable 4-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2004, though coach Bob Stoops is just 22-27-2 ATS as road favorite at Oklahoma. Update – On Thursday, Notre Dame was up to +4, but as of today, has slid back to +3.5. Only 20 percent are thinking green with the Irish. SWM Take – Lean with Notre Dame
CFB – (165) TULANE at (166) UL-MONROE 7:00 ET ESPN3
Both these clubs were throttled last week and quickly want to get back to winning football before diving into conference action the rest of the way. This will be Tulane’s third straight road contest, which places them at a disadvantage and they have gone from +11 to +12.5 versus UL-Monroe. With a posted total of 57, the Green Wave is 3-12 ATS in away outings when the total is between 56.5 and 63. Update – The home team has risen to -13.5 in Vegas and to two-touchdowns offshore, with two-thirds support. SWM Take – UL Monroe covers
CFB – (181) NAVY at (182) WESTERN KENTUCKY 2:00 ET ESPN-NEWS
Western Kentucky has already committed 15 turnovers, which could hamper their ability to score against Navy who can hang on to the pigskin for long periods running the option. The Middies were released at -1 and have been elevated to -3. The Navy is 12-3 ATS away after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Update – This line has been as even keeled as a naval officer at -3. Over 70 percent like the Middies to do the job. SWM Take – Navy covers
CFB – (187) AIR FORCE at (188) NEVADA 8:00 ET CBSSN *New
Most years, Air Force is a reliable wager, especially as an underdog. Not this season, the Flyboys are 1-3 SU and ATS and the only cover was by 1.5-points against Boise State. A significantly slower defense is the main culprit and the crew from Colorado Springs has gone from +7 to +11 for this Reno encounter. But do not become all warm and fuzzy with Nevada, who won and covered against Hawai’i last week despite being outgained by 37 yards, with a +5 turnover margin. Brian Polian is nowhere close to the head coach Chris Ault was. SWM Take – Lean with Air Force
Betting Notes – The top five teams people are betting on is Texas A&M, Florida State, Nevada, Wyoming and Kent State…..The Top 5 OVER bets based on the home team is Missouri, New Mexico State, Rice, Colorado State and UL-Monroe….. The Top 5 UNDER bets based on the home team is Boise State, Western Michigan, Louisiana Tech (neutral), N.C. State and Iowa.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Utah State is 11-1 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread since last season. (Friday)
CFB Totals Trend
South Florida is 19-3 UNDER versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or fewer yards a game.
CFB First Half Line Trend
Miami-O is 0-10 ATS in road games after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
