Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
Sports Betting College Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Saturday
By Doug Upstone
A few MAC favorites have been growing the past few days and East Carolina is up a stunning five points to -25.5 over Florida International. Here I have added four new games which have also seen a dramatic shift and gone back for updates on games from earlier in the week. Be back here Sunday for the NFL line moves. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – (323) KENT STATE at (324) AKRON 3:30 ET ESPN3
In this MAC contest of 2-7 teams, Akron went from a 2-point home favorite to a one-point underdog. Comparing the statistics and other numbers, nothing really stands out for such a significant shift. Kent State has won three in a row and will have the best player in Dri Archer and Akron is 0-6 ATS in MAC home contests since last year. Update– With Akron catching over 70 percent of wagers placed, they are up to either 1.5 or two-point favorites. SWM Take – Akron covers
CFB – (331) WAKE FOREST at (332) SYRACUSE 12:30 ET FSN Affiliates *New
Despite Wake Forest coming oh so close to knocking Miami-Fl. from the unbeaten ranks last week and covering three in a row, the betting community is going the opposite direction and backing Syracuse, taking them from -3 to -5.5. The thought process here is the Orange are off a bye week and will determined to cleanse themselves from 56-0 the white-washing they suffered against Georgia Tech. With the Demon Deacons only averaging 96 yards rushing a game, Syracuse is 14-4 ATS at home versus opponents averaging 120 or fewer rushing yards a contest. SWM Take – Lean with Syracuse
CFB – (335) TENNESSEE at (336) MISSOURI 7:00 ET ESPN *New
In betting circles the fall can be precipitous, which is what happened to Missouri this week. The Tigers blew a 17-point lead at home to South Carolina and fell in OT for their first defeat of the season. Football bettors are well aware teams losing after starting 7-0 or better are notorious poor wagers the following week and the public has dropped Mizzou from -13 to -10. Nevertheless, Tennessee will be starting a freshman quarterback for the first time in Joshua Dobbs and the Missouri defense will no doubt be selling out like last week (75 yards allowed) to stop the run and make Dobbs throw the ball. This game has everything to do about how quickly Tigers players can forget and see the bigger picture, winning the SEC East. Note – If you like the favorite, wait till Saturday morning, it could go lower. SWM Take – Lean with Missouri
CFB – (337) IOWA STATE at (338) KANSAS STATE 3:30 ET FS1
Since almost beating Texas, Iowa State is giving the appearance they are wearing down. Those making college football picks are thinking the same thing and bumped up the Cylones from +14.5 to +17. Presently, it is hard not to be on the Kansas State bandwagon since they are 10-2 ATS conference play of late, including covering the last three. Update – A mostly minor downturn on Kansas State, now at -16.5 at about half the sportsbooks we checked. The Wildcats are attracting over 70% of the bets placed. SWM Take – Lean with Kansas State
CFB – (353) ARIZONA at (354) CALIFORNIA 3:30 ET PAC-12N
For Pac-12 teams, the week of having California pop on the schedule has to be a bonus because a victory is at hand. There is nothing golden about the Golden Bears defense, ranked 123rd in points allowed at 44 per game. With Arizona’s No. 11 rushing attack, the Wildcats rising from -14.5 to -16 would leave few surprised by this betting odds shift. Update– This has been rock steady since Tuesday and 80+ percent are taking the favored road team. SWM Take – Arizona covers
CFB – (357) WISCONSIN at (358) IOWA 12:00 ET ABC/ESPN2
Wisconsin has a team speed and talent edge in this Big Ten battle, which would the leading indicators for the Badgers to grow from -7 to -9.5 road favorites. And while we agree Wisconsin deserved to be such a choice, we find Iowa is 19-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards a game. Update – For the most part, Wisconsin remains at -9.5, with about 30 percent of books reviewed at -9 or -10. A group of 65% is on the favored road squad. SWM Take – Lean with Iowa
CFB – (363) MINNESOTA at (364) INDIANA 3:30 ET BTN
Most would find this hard to fathom, but Indiana is tied for eighth in the country in scoring at 42.4 PPG. Nonetheless, it is true and playing at home the Hoosiers are a blossoming favorite from -8 to -9.5. There is a college football system at over 88 percent that favors Indiana, relating to teams off exactly two SU wins and two SU defeats. Update– After the bump on Indiana early, the action has been one way, back to the original number of eight. Two-thirds of football bettors are putting their money on the Golden Gophers. SWM Take – Lean with Minnesota
CFB – (367) NAVY at (368) NOTRE DAME 3:30 ET NBC *New
This is strictly those looking over the betting odds taking a page out of the history books. Notre Dame opened as a 17.5-point home favorite and has dropped three points. With Navy a stunning 9-1 at Notre Dame Stadium, it makes perfect sense to back the Middies. However, one edge the Fighting Irish have is they faced Air Force last week and the players will be more familiar with the cut blocking schemes option teams use. SWM Take – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (371) NORTHWESTERN at (372) NEBRASKA 3:30 ET BTN *New
How bad is the situation for Nebraska this week? Off their upset loss at Minnesota, the Cornhuskers have tumbled two points to -5.5 against a Northwestern squad which has lost four in a row and has not covered a spread since Sept. 7. The faulty Nebraska defense does give hope for the Wildcats, who are better when they can run the ball and mix in the pass. For the Huskers, we find they are 19-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse, yet the ‘Cats are a sharp 17-6 ATS in road games off a road loss. SWM Take – Lean with Nebraska
CFB – (399) NEW MEXICO at (400) SAN DIEGO STATE 8:00 ET FSPT
Have to admit, a bit surprised to see the Aztecs tumbling as a favorite from -17 to -15. The case can be made San Diego State only allows 125 rushing yards, while New Mexico averages 322 yards on the ground and could be slowed. Yet, hard to overlook the Lobos are 9-1 ATS away in this MWC matchup. Update – With New Mexico the Land of Enchantment., those making sports picks lowered the Lobos to either +14.5 or +14. Just under 60 percent are riding the visitor. SWM Take – Lean with New Mexico
Betting Trends –The Top Five most popular teams based on betting percent are in order: Tulane, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, Northern Illinois and Penn State…..The Top 5 OVER bets based on percentages are on these home teams: Toledo, Akron, Tulsa, San Jose State and Colorado State…..The Top 5 UNDER bets based on percentages are on these home teams: Syracuse, N.C. State, Boston College, Air Force and TCU
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Utah State is 10-0 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers.
CFB Totals Trend
Akron is 10-0 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival the last two seasons.
CFB First Half Trend
Arkansas is 1-12 after a game where they forced one or less turnovers since last year.
CFB Money Line Trend
Auburn is 16-1 after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
