Sports Betting Early College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting Early College Football Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
That’s not all for today, as we note UL-Monroe is a growing home underdog because QB Kolton Browning is out and Bowling Green is up a couple of points to -26 because they are playing UMass. I have a bonus matchup, because the NL Wild card line is on the move. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
CFB – Thursday (307) UCLA at (308) UTAH 10:00 ET FS1
Historically, Utah is tough out at Rice-Eccles Stadium (50-13 SU and 6-2 ATS as an underdog L11Y), yet those betting football are backing the better team and lifted UCLA two points to -6. The most significant difference is the overall team speed of the Bruins, which will be obvious from the start. The Utes however are 11-2 ATS at home off an upset.
CFB – (341) UTSA at (342) MARSHALL 2:00 ET
In just their third year at the FBS level, UT-San Antonio has given a good accounting of themselves and has joined Conference USA. Larry Coker, the former Miami-Fl. head coach, is in charge of the Roadrunners, who play exciting football. UTSA has gone from +13 to +14.5 because the three best offensive teams they have faced, the Roadrunners are allowing 51 PPG. Say hello to Marshall who is averaging 39.7 PPG.
CFB – (359) CINCINNATI at (360) SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 ET ESPN3
South Florida might be 0-4 (1-3 ATS), but because Cincinnati gave a dull 14-0 performance against Miami-O as a 24.5-point favorite without QB Munchie Legaux, the Bearcats have been lowered from -13 to -11.5. Cincy has been the better team in this series with a 7-3 and 8-2 ATS record, including 4-1 ATS in away games.
CFB – (371) FRESNO STATE at (372) IDAHO 5:00 ET
It’s a given Fresno State will score, averaging 44 PPG, yet they are 0-4 ATS because their defense is conceding 38 PPG. This is not stopping bettors making college football picks, elevating the Bulldogs two points to -26. Idaho is off a rare home upset over Temple, but Fresno State hung 42 points on Hawai’i and is 16-4 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a conference game victory.
CFB – (377) NEW. MEX. STATE at (378) NEW MEXICO 7:00 ET
Annually, this rivalry comes up short when listed among the classics in college football, but in this ‘Land of Enchantment’ battle, it means something to the locals. Both New Mexico universities are headed towards losing season again; however, the Lobos are a rising favorite from 8 to 9.5. New Mexico is 10-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite.
CFB – (393) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (394) UAB 3:00 ET
Florida Atlantic is only 1-4, yet is playing opponents tough with a 3-1-1 ATS record. The Owls possibly could have a couple more wins but have been held back by a -7 turnover margin. With FAU 9-1 ATS on the road under second-year coach Carl Pelini, the Owls have been bet down to +4 from +6 betting odds.
CFB – (407) OHIO STATE at (408) NORTHWESTERN 8:00 ET ABC
Ohio State has been among the most impressive college football teams all year, though they are having problems defending the pass. Sportsbooks sent the Buckeyes out as -4 or -4.5 point road favorites and this has been built up to -6. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald with his Wildcats ready, nonetheless, Ohio State is 6-0 ATS away playing against a team with a winning record.
MLB – (901) CINCINNATI at (902) PITTSBURGH 8:05 ET TBS
In this NL Wild Card clash, Francisco Liriano (18-8, 3.02 ERA) draws the assignment for Pittsburgh, who is back in the postseason for the first time in 21 years. Liriano is a domineering 8-1 at PNC Park (Pirates 9-2 in his starts) with a 1.47 ERA and his team is off a three-game road sweep of Cincinnati to earn the home field advantage. This has propelled the Pirates to rise from -120 on the money line to -135 or higher. A closer look finds Liriano is 0-3 against the Reds, with a respectable 3.70 ERA. Johnny Cueto (5-2, 2.82) is 13-4 lifetime against the Bucs, but is pitching for a team who has lost five in a row, scoring eight total runs. Pittsburgh won the season series 11-8 and was 5-4 at home. SWM Take – Lean with Pittsburgh
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Utah State is 9-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points the last two seasons. (Friday)
CFB Totals Trend
Indiana is 9-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games since 2011.
MLB Money Line Trend
Cincinnati is 17-3 if Johnny Cueto allowed one or less earned runs in his last outing.
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