Sports Betting Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Betting Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Today we have the usual fine array of wagering activity in a variety of sports for a Thursday. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (107) WASHINGTON at (108) MINNESOTA 8:25 ET NFLN
Coming in at No.’s 30 and 31 in points allowed in the NFL are Minnesota (31.5 PPG) and Washington (31.6 PPG) respectively. Combine this with more than adequate offensive production from both teams and the total is piling up like snow on a Minneapolis drive way from 47.5 to 49.5. The Vikings is 6-0 OVER at home when the total is 45.5 or higher the last three seasons. Update – The Vegas sportsbook are holding at the 49.5 total, however, offshore books are mostly at 48.5. Overall the Over is the choice at 70 percent. SWM Take – Lean Over
CFB – (109) OKLAHOMA at (110) BAYLOR 7:30 ET FS1
These Big 12 foes have three common opponents and have beaten all of them. Oklahoma has beaten them by 19.3 points a game, while Baylor has destroyed them by 46.2 PPG. This alone is reason enough for the Bears to be moved from -9 to -14 by the wagering public. How the Sooners execute is key on both sides of the ball and they are 7-2 ATS at Waco. Update – The support keeps coming for Baylor, up to 16 or 16.5-point favorites. What is unusual is the wagers are nearly split even. SWM Take – Baylor covers
CFB – (113) OREGON at (114) STANFORD 1:00 ET FOX
The total is on an upward move which cannot be good news for those who or are thinking about backing the home underdog. Prior to last year, the previous seven meetings went OVER the total and Oregon was 6-1 SU and ATS. The original figure of 60 and moved to 61.5 and the Ducks are 9-0 OVER off one or more Under’s the last three seasons. Keep this in mind. SWM Take – Lean Over
NBA– (701) L.A. CLIPPERS at (702) MIAMI 7:00 ET TNT
The Clippers fell for the oldest trick in the book last night in Orlando, looking ahead and lost 98-90 to the Magic, shooting a season-low 37.9 percent. Those making NBA wagers are disagreeing with the oddsmakers and have lowered the total quite a bit from 211 to 207. On one hand we see Miami is 44-25 UNDER home after playing four consecutive games as favorite the last three seasons, yet we also uncover Los Angeles is 16-5 OVER off a upset loss as a favorite. In reviewing this series, we find the OVER is 11-3 when these clubs meet in Miami and will go that direction. SWM Take – Play Over
NHL – (59) N.Y. ISLANDERS at (60) CAROLINA 7:05 ET MSG+, SS
Carolina ended their five-game losing streak against Philadelphia in their last outing and was installed as -115 money line home favorite against the New York Islanders. The Hurricanes finally won with Justin Peters in the net since regular starter Cam Ward is injured. Those betting hockey are not sold on Carolina and flipped them to +105 underdogs. Part of the reason for the switch is Islanders goalie Evgeni Nabokov, who is 8-3-1 versus Carolina in his past 12 starts against them. What is troubling about backing New York is their special teams. The Isles are 0-18 on their power play, while giving eight goals on 18 chances on penalty kills. SWM Take – Lean Carolina
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
UL – Lafayette is 8-0 ATS versus passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards a game.
NBA Totals Trend
Atlanta is 18-6 OVER versus teams being outscored by six or more points a game the last three seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Buffalo is 0-7 after playing a road game this season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
