Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
On Monday, another season is upon us and those betting college football have made their point of emphasis clear about how they think the opening weekend might play out on several occasions. The information might be a little tainted since many sports books released their opening lines either weeks or months ago, nonetheless it supplies you with what the wagering public is thinking. This will be a regular early week feature and on Friday’s we will offer our opinions on the games along with updated information.
CFB – Thursday (141) UTAH STATE at (142) UTAH 8:00 ET FS1
Utah State has covered the last two meetings and won outright as a touchdown underdog a year ago. If coach Gary Anderson was still with the Aggies, they might have held as a Pick, but enough are concerned Utah State might lose their edge even with QB Chuckie Keaton and 15 other starters back. Utah has not always taken the “Battle of the Brothers” rivalry seriously; they might this time as three-point favorites.
CFB – Friday (153) TEXAS TECH at (154) SMU 8:00 ET ESPN
After three so-so seasons, Tommy Tuberville bolted Lubbock which might turn out to be a blessing for Texas Tech. This enabled the Red Raiders to bring in former star quarterback Kliff Kingbury to take over as head coach. Texas Tech does have better talent than SMU, however, being a road touchdown favorite with a new signal caller and a defense learning its fifth system is five years, left football bettors wondering and they moved T-squared to -5.5.
CFB – (171) ALABAMA vs. (172) VIRGINIA TECH 5:30 ET ESPN
Based on the last several years, this is likely to happen often in 2013. Top-ranked Alabama has been elevated from -17.5 to -19.5 against Virginia Tech for their meeting in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are a known quantity, which is not the case with the Hokies who have question on the offense and are coming off a shaky .500 regular season. The Virginia Tech defense might be the best in the ACC to give the Hokies a chance to cover.
CFB – (175) PURDUE at (176) CINCINNATI 12:00 ET ESPNU
Cincinnati might have lost their head coach, but Tommy Tuberville, at least by reputation is one heck of a replacement. Purdue on the other hand has a hot shot replacement in Darrell Hazell, who worked wonders at Kent State. Hazell might be able to repair the Boilersmakers in time, just not by the season opener and the Bearcats have risen from -7.5 to -10.5 home favorites.
CFB – (177) KENTUCKY vs. (178) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:00 ET ESPN NEWS/ESPN3
This is an interesting confrontation of Commonwealth State competitors with many ways to view outcome. Both teams have new coaches which alone has to create doubt for each team. Western Kentucky is the more veteran team and on the upswing after two winning seasons. Kentucky has more total team talent, yet it is impossible to ignore the Hilltoppers are 13-1 ATS as underdogs, explaining in part why they have fallen from +7 to +4 for this neutral site contest.
CFB – (181) MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. (182) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Oklahoma State might not be playing in Stillwater, yet they are still drawing ample support as a favorite over Mississippi State. The Cowboys were released at -11 and have been pushed to -12.5. College football bettors assume Okie State will score, but the most important factor is they are 30-14 ATS as a double digit favorite since 2003. No question coach Mike Gundy wants to set an early tone as the Big 12 favorite this season.
CFB – (195) WASHINGTON STATE at (196) AUBURN 7:00 ET ESPNU
Auburn will have a more uptempo offensive look with Gus Malzahn as head coach and having 16 returning starters will make the transition possibly somewhat smoother. Those betting football are not 100 percent sure the Tigers will be ready from the first whistle and dropped them from -17 to -15.5. Washington State has the offensive weapons to maybe stay under the number with presumed starter Connor Halliday.
CFB – (207) LSU vs. (208) TCU 9:00 ET ESPN
After spring football, LSU was being overlooked by other SEC programs. As fall practice started, the view point on the Tigers changed and they have gone from an afterthought and are being respected by sharps and the football betting public alike. The thought process is Les Miles still wins and will have good to possibly very good players and this has caused the line to leap from -3 to -4 or higher on LSU.
CFB – (209) BOISE STATE at (210) WASHINGTON 10:00 ET FS1
This is supposed to be Washington’s best squad under coach Steve Sarkisian and they drew the home favorite role of -5.5 over a Boise State crew which is a bit of a mystery. However, U-Dub is a fair 7-5 ATS home favorite under ‘Sark’ and is only 3-8 ATS if handing out single digits the past decade. This will be only the fifth time the Broncos will be a road underdog with coach Chris Peterson (3-1 ATS) and they are down to -3.
CFB – (213) NORTHWESTERN at (214) CALIFORNIA 10:30 ET ESPN2
Having met with Vegas sharps this past weekend, many of them are high on Northwestern. The Wildcats were released as field goal road favorites and that number has doubled to -6. Cal has 12 starters back, but is learning a completely different offense and defense which is causing doubts. Just remember the ‘Cats are 4-7-1 ATS as away favs under exuberant Pat Fitzgerald.
CFB – Monday (219) FLORIDA STATE at (220) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET ESPN
While most preseason magazines have Clemson winning the ACC, Las Vegas wise guys are keen on Florida State. More than one person I spoke said – “This will be Jimbo Fisher’s best team..” even with redshirt freshman Jameis Winston the starting quarterback. Winston’s abilities are immense and the Seminoles have been pushed from -7.5 to -10. Defensively, Pittsburgh can present issues with experience and size, but too much FSU speed, will be the difference.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
The L.A. Dodgers are 21-3 vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs a game in the second half of the season.
MLB Totals Trend
Arizona is 9-0 UNDER at home after three or more consecutive road games this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
The White Sox are 10-36 on the RL as a favorite when the price is -190 to +175 this season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
