Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
On Thursday, we have a little football and a little baseball sprinkled throughout the day and here are the major line moves if you disregard MLB favorite over -200. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (301) KANSAS CITY at (302) PHILADELPHIA 8:25 ET NFLN
The combination of Philadelphia having an explosive offense and a defense which can be beaten like a drum, has pushed the total from 49 to 51.5 points. Nonetheless, Kansas City has a formidable defense and is 22-11-1 UNDER the past three years. If the Chiefs control the tempo by running, this could be an easy winner. Update – There has been a definite buyback on the total with most sportsbooks at 49.5 or 50 and trending downward. Still, just over 40 percent of wagers placed have been on the UNDER. SWM Take – Play Under
MLB – (959) L.A. DODGERS at (960) ARIZONA 3:40 ET KCAL, FSAZ
The Dodgers have a second attempt at wrapping up their first division title in four years this afternoon. L.A. turns to Ricky Nolasco (13-10, 3.36 ERA) to close the deal. Though the right-hander was pounded in his previous outing against San Francisco prior to that he was 7-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last eight starts. With Nolasco 8-2 lifetime against Arizona and 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his previous three outings against the Diamondbacks, the total has dipped from 8.5 to 8. The Snakes Wade Miley (10-10, 3.70) will try and prevent Los Angeles from winning the division on his team’s home turf and he’s 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA over his last four starts against the Dodgers, contributing to the lower total. The D-Backs are 11-2 UNDER at home after two or more consecutive Over’s this season. SWM Take – Play Under
MLB – (395) TEXAS at (396) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET FSSW, SUN (side and total)
Baseball bettors are not giving up on Texas just yet. Despite having lost seven of eight and posting a 3-13 September record, the Rangers have gone from a +110 underdog to a -110 favorite with Yu Darvish (12-9, 2.79) pitching. Texas is in the unenviable position of chasing Tampa Bay while trying to hold off a host of American League teams nipping at their heels, attempting to secure the wild card spot. The Rays counter with Matt Moore (15-3, 3.11), who owns a 0.61 ERA in his past three starts, while Darvish has lost four in a row and has not won since Aug.12. Moore and the Rays are 7-0 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. With these being two of the top AL pitchers in ERA, the total has collapsed from 7 to 6.5. Darvish is 19-9 UNDER this season. SWM Take – Leans with Tampa Bay and Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Clemson is 13-4-1 ATS against ACC opposition.
MLB Totals Trend
Manager Eric Wedge and Seattle are 10-0 OVER revenging a same season three-game sweep at home.
MLB Run Line Trend
Manager Davey Johnson and Washington are 29-10 after nine consecutive games versus division rivals.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
