Sports Betting NFL Football and Bowl Game Line Moves
Sports Betting NFL Football and Bowl Game Line Moves
By Doug Upstone
It is the last weekend of college and NFL football and we have it covered with the latest football line moves. As we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
CFB – AT&T COTTON BOWL 8:00 E FOX *New
(261) OKLAHOMA STATE vs. (262) MISSOURI
This matchup of former Big 12 partners has been quiet most of the bowl season until the past few days. Missouri had been hanging around a -1.5 to 1-point favorite and quicker the Alabama secondary giving up another long pass to Oklahoma, the Tigers have been flipped to +1.5. Some may have doubts about the Mizzou defense after they were tattered by Auburn and now the Oklahoma State loss to the Sooners does not look as bad after the Sugar Bowl. Missouri might be 10-3 ATS this season, but long term, the Cowboys are 22-9 ATS having won four out of their last five games. For what it’s worth, ‘sides’ line moves in bowl games of one or more points are 12-7 ATS in the direction they are headed. SWM Take – Lean Missouri
CFB – DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL 8:30 E ESPN
(263) CLEMSON vs. (264) OHIO STATE
With two quality quarterbacks and two defenses which have allowed a hefty amount of points against the better teams they have faced, scoring is not anticipated to be a problem. The oddsmakers original release of 66.5 has grown to 70 points. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is the catalyst for the Clemson offense, which averages 40.2 points a game and has first-rate receivers like explosive Sammy Watkins to generate big plays. Ohio State, with Braxton Miller at the helm, scores even more points at 46.3 points a game, which is why this should be a high-scoring matchup. Against top shelf offenses like Georgia, Florida State and South Carolina, Clemson conceded an average of 39 PPG. The Buckeyes gave up at least 34 points in three of their last four contests. Update – Don’t be surprised if this total closes at 71, with almost 85 percent support on the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – Saturday (101) KANSAS CITY at (102) INDIANAPOLIS 4:35 E NBC *New
Is it better to be hot or rested entering the NFL postseason? According to those making NFL picks, the latter is true at least for this matchup. Indianapolis is 4-1 SU and ATS since December, including three wins and covers in a row. Kansas City on the other hand rested most of their star players last week, hoping to have them fresher for this contest and they enter the playoffs 2-5 and 3-4 ATS. The Colts opened at -2.5 and are down to a Pick at last look. What the Chiefs have to overcome is their postseason legacy which has them at 1-9 ATS since 1992. SWM Take – Indianapolis covers
NFL – Saturday (103) NEW ORLEANS at (104) PHILADELPHIA 8:10 E NBC
With two Top 10 scoring offenses, naturally scoring would not be considered an issue. The sportsbooks sent this total out at 54.5, but upon closer examination, football bettors have lowered it a point to 53.5. The most glaring rationale is the New Orleans offense on the road. The Saints average just 17.7 points a game when leave Louisiana compared to scoring 34 PPG in the Superdome. The New Orleans defense improved significantly under defensive coordinator Robb Ryan, which contributed to the Saints being 10-2 UNDER against NFC competitors. Factor in the Philadelphia defense has only allowed more than 22 points once since Denver hung 52 points on them in late September and the line movement appears accurate. . Update – About half the sportsbooks checked have moved this total back slightly to 54. Sixty percent are on the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – Sunday (107) SAN FRANCISCO at (108) GREEN BAY 4:40 E FOX *New
Blame the anticipated weather not the teams for the total falling like upper Wisconsin temperatures in January from 48 to 46. The game time temperature is supposed to be at ZERO or in negative numbers, which would seem to inhibit what both offenses would want to do when it comes to throwing the ball. The temps will only plummet throughout the contest and with the 49ers No. 3 rushing offense and the Packers No. 7 rushing attack, the clock figures to keep rolling and could shorten the game and the score unless huge gains are realized. The past six battles have all gone OVER. SWM Take – Lean Under
CFB – Sunday – GODADDY.COM BOWL 9:00 E ESPN
(267) ARKANSAS STATE vs. (268) BALL STATE
For the third straight year, Arkansas State will play in a bowl game without the head coach they started the season with. Bryan Harsin after just one season took the Boise State job. The Red Wolves have a balanced attack averaging over 205 yards rushing and passing. Ball State finished the regular season ranked 13th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 40.1 points per game. The Cardinals have a big time passing attack and ranked ninth in the nation with an average of 333.3 yards per game. In the second last bowl game of the season, the aforementioned factors have led to the total leaping from 61 to 63.5. Ball State is 6-0 OVER in away games off two or more consecutive Over’s the last three seasons. Update – The total continues to head north with sportsbooks at 64.5 or 65. The betting public is at a 70 percent rate on the OVER. SWM Take – Play Over
CFB- Monday – VIZIO BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 8:30 E ESPN
(269) AUBURN vs. (270) FLORIDA STATE
While Florida State is a fairly significant favorite in the title tilt, what people want to know is can the Seminoles defense stop Auburn’s seemingly unstoppable run game? The short answer is probably not and the total has been altered from 65 to 67.5 points. The other part of this equation is will the Tigers be able to stop Heisman winner Jameis Winston and the Florida State offense? The answer could be the same. However, a month between games is a long time and defensive coaches are often evil genius’s, which could keep the score down. Update – No real change to this point, but that could be altered by Monday as more than 75% are backing the OVER. SWM Take – Play Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Missouri is 9-0 ATS after allowing 375 or more rushing yards last game.
NBA ATS Trend
Atlanta is 3-14 ATS playing with two days rest the last two seasons.
CBB ATS Trend
Georgia is 7-0 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better.
NHL Money Line Trend
Chicago is 20-5 playing their third game in five days this season.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
