Sports Betting NFL Football Early Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Football Early Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
On Wednesday’s we will review the latest numbers in the NFL to understand what is occurring on the wagering side. Our actual choices will come for the weekend edition of this article which will feature updates. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
NFL – Thursday (451) BALTIMORE at (452) DENVER 8:30 ET NBC
After consternation of the total demise of the Baltimore franchise with personnel losses, football bettors took a closer look at the defending Super Bowl champions this August and realized this was not the best team during the regular season last year anyways and reconsidered their position. Depending on the sportsbook, Baltimore opened at either +9 or +8.5 and has been dropped to +7.5. The loss of Von Miller figures to matter to Denver when it comes to bothering Joe Flacco. The Broncos were 10-3 ATS as a favorite last year including the playoffs, but one of the setbacks came against the Ravens, who are 8-2-1 ATS versus Denver.
NFL – (453) NEW ENGLAND at (454) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Because of how early the lines were released, New England has risen from -6.5 to -9.5 or higher, with this being a function of Buffalo’s quarterback conundrum. Rookie EJ Manuel has been given the all clear to play and will start for the Bills. Curious to watch how NFL football bettors react to this news with Buffalo 1-8 SU and ATS hosting the Patriots.
NFL – (461) KANSAS CITY at (462) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Kansas City has moved from -2.5 to -4 which is a sign of one or two things happening. Either football bettors are convinced coach Andy Reid will make an immediate impact on the Chiefs players or Jacksonville is as bad as they were last year. It is probably somewhere in the middle with the Jaguars 4-1 SU all-time at home in this matchup.
NFL – (463) CINCINNATI at (464) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS
To this point, the largest move on the totals side for Week 1 has been this encounter. The initial oddsmakers offering of 45.5 has been cut like Tim Tebow’s NFL career, down to 41.5. Defense is presumed to rule the day, with the Bears offense in transition and both clubs being able to rush the passer and create miscues.
NFL – (465) MIAMI at (466) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Cleveland showed improvement this August as Brandon Weeden is working with Norv Turner to develop as quarterback. However, the Browns have a new coach and are putting in a new offense and it’s puzzling why Cleveland has been flipped from a one-point underdog to single digit favorite. This works in our favor with the Dolphins 23-11-1 ATS as a road underdog the past five years.
NFL – (465) MINNESOTA at (466) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Christian Ponder is as popular among those betting football as Elizabeth Pahlke is with actor John Cusack, after his lawyers sent her a restraining order to keep the “fan” away from his Malibu beach front home according to TMZ.com. Minnesota was a typical 3.5-point road underdog heading to Detroit and has been shifted +6. The general consensus about these two teams is the Lions will be better this year, the Vikings might not after a surprise playoff season. Keep in mind, the Vikes are 11-3-2 ATS the past eight years.
NFL – (471) OAKLAND at (472) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
Based on various reports from reporters and scouts visiting NFL training camps and watching the team’s practice, Oakland is considered one of the two or three worst teams in the league this year. This information has NFL bettors boosting the Raiders from +6.5 to +9.5. This is a significant move, even with Terrelle Pryor named the starting quarterback and the Da Raaiders are 4-15 ATS on turf.
NFL – Monday (481) HOUSTON at (482) SAN DIEGO 7:00 ET ESPN
This is a tricky spread just to begin with, as Houston at 2.5-point road favorites seems low. The number has since been built up to -5, which certainly feels like the right number, but why was it under three to begin with? This falls into the line of thinking if something is so easy it cannot be true and we found San Diego is 20-3 ATS vs. the AFC South.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Jorge De La Rosa and Colorado are 12-0 after a loss this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Jered Weaver and the Angels are 33-10 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times game in the second half of the season.
MLB Run Line Trend
CC Sabathia and the Yankees are 18-5 when the total is 8.5 to 10 the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
