Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 16
Sports Betting NFL Football Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 16
By Doug Upstone
Here are the latest NFL football line moves and top trends for Week 16. As we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NFL – (103) NEW ORLEANS at (104) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
The Saints were flat our terrible in St. Louis in losing 27-16 and face an uphill challenge against Carolina, likely for the NFC South title. The interest level of those making NFL picks has more followed the total which has grown a point to 46.5. This number is rather interesting since New Orleans is 9-1 UNDER in NFL matchups this season and Carolina is 10-1 UNDER at home after a home victory by 10 or more points. Playing this contest outdoors would also be expected to affect the total. Update – With rain expected and potential for better defensive play than presumed earlier, the total has dipped to 44.5 or 45. Nonetheless, over 70 percent are still on the OVER. SWM Take – Over
NFL – (105) DALLAS at (106) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX
With Washington having the worst scoring defense in the NFL at 31 points a game and Dallas surrendering the most yards a game at 427.3, is anyone flabbergasted the total shot up from 51 to 53.5? We didn’t think so either and given what Tony Romo and Kirk Cousins are capable of (touchdowns and turnovers) against these defenses, points should be plentiful. Dallas is 12-4 OVER versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game. Really hard to imagine either defense doing anything that matters other than falling into turnovers which is entirely possible. Update – In spite of almost 80% of football bettors on the OVER, the total has receded to 52.5. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – (107) TAMPA BAY at (108) ST. LOUIS 1:00 ET FOX *New
Because Tampa Bay has been more than competitive against teams with similar talent to them the past six weeks (4-2 SU & ATS) the Buccaneers have fallen two points to +3.5 at St. Louis. While it is hard to argue this point, the Bucs are a dreary 2-10 ATS in December games the last three seasons. SWM Take – Lean with St. Louis
NFL – (109) CHICAGO at (110) PHILADELPHIA 8:25 ET NBC (side and total)
This is a critical matchup of two clubs who now control their own destiny by winning out. Football bettors have gotten busy with this key contest, first moving Chicago down a digit to +3 and then elevating the total from 54 to 56. To the initial switch, hard to ignore Philadelphia is 2-12 ATS at home since last season, but almost equally as difficult not to acknowledge the Bears are 2-8 ATS in NFC play this season. With two potent offenses go against two mediocre defenses, the total going up makes sense. Update – The line on this contest has not budged since Tuesday, while the total slipped back to 55. Chicago is nearly a 2-to-1 betting choice, while the total is almost 50-50. SWM Take – Philadelphia covers and Under
NFL – (111) CLEVELAND at (112) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
Evidently, Jets backers have as much faith in the team as their coach Rex Ryan, as New York flew from -1 to -2.5 over Cleveland. The Browns have lost five in a row and beat the oddsmakers just once, but it’s not Gang Green is melting any snow because they are hot, with the same 1-4 record (1-3-1 ATS). What has to be of concern backing the Jets is their 16-30 ATS December home record, however, Cleveland is 13-30 ATS versus defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer rushing yards a carry. Update – The Flyboys have slid back to original number, as the Brownies are betting choice at almost 60%. SWM Take – Lean with Jets
NFL – (113) INDIANAPOLIS at (114) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET CBS *New
The total has exploded from 41.5 to 46.5, but why? Both defenses have certainly been inconsistent the last six weeks, which has to play a part. We find the Colts are 7-1 OVER having won two out of their last three games this season, but this is countered by the Chiefs 15-5 UNDER after playing their last game on the road the last three seasons. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (115) MINNESOTA at (116) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET FOX
This non-conference clash has the total on the upswing a point to 48. Let’s start with the Vikings ranking 31st in scoring defense at 31 points a game. Follow this up with Cincinnati, who is third in scoring at home at 33.2 points a contest. We note Minnesota is tied for being the best OVER team at 11-3 this year and they are 9-2 OVER as underdogs. Finally, the Bengals are 18-7 OVER at home after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of last contest. With Baltimore winning on Monday night, Cincinnati knows what is at stake and needs to put the loss of Pittsburgh behind them. Update – The most prevalent total today is 47.5, with 60% support on the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Under
NFL – (117) DENVER at (118) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
If you like Denver, you better snap them up now because their number is only going one way, up. The Broncos were sent out by sportsbooks at -9.5 and right way they jumped to -10.5. It is evident Houston has their bags packed and wants the season to be over, while Denver should be steaming mad after losing at home to San Diego. Peyton Manning seldom has two poor games consecutively and the Broncos are 11-3 ATS in the second half the season since last year. If Denver jumps to a 14-point lead in the first half, this sets up to be a rout. Update – When Matt Schaub was announced as the starting quarterback, the line moved to 9.5, but is back to 10 on Sunday. Better than three-quarters favor Denver. SWM Take – Denver wins
NFL – (125) OAKLAND at (126) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET CBS (side and total)
The Oakland Raiders have lost six or seven, with their only victory coming against lowly Houston. In the Raiders past three contests, they have allowed an average of 41.3 points a game and looked bad in doing so. Measure this against San Diego, who is 3-1 SU and ATS in their past four games and is No. 7 in the AFC playoff position, just needing an opportunity to move up if they win out. Upon oddsmakers release, almost immediately the Chargers bolted from -8.5 to -10 and this number is probably not hit its ceiling yet. The total did the same, going from 48 to 51. San Diego is a sharp 16-6 ATS in home games having won three out of their last four. Oakland is either 5-0-1 or 6-0 OVER in their last six tilts, yet we find these to combatants are 15-5 UNDER when meeting in SoCal. Update – Not surprisingly the Bolts are back to -9, though the total remains at 51. Two-thirds of bettors are the road team and 70% prefer the OVER. SWM Take – Lean San Diego and Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 12-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Carolina is 11-1 UNDER in home games off a home win by 10 points or more.
NFL First Half Trend
Green Bay is 10-1 ATS off a close road win by three points or less the last 31 years.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
