Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
It is an exciting time with 13 NFL games on the docket for Sunday. We have all the latest NFL updates along with two fresh numbers where the lines have moved since Wednesday. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
NFL – (453) NEW ENGLAND at (454) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Because of how early the lines were released, New England has risen from -6.5 to -9.5 or higher, with this being a function of Buffalo’s quarterback conundrum. Rookie EJ Manuel has been given the all clear to play and will start for the Bills. Curious to watch how NFL football bettors react to this news with Buffalo 1-8 SU and ATS hosting the Patriots. Update– This is sort of a mixed bag, with New England priced anywhere from -9.5 to -10.5. While this might be correct, a lot off points to give this early in the season. SWM Take – Lean Buffalo
NFL – (461) KANSAS CITY at (462) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Kansas City has moved from -2.5 to -4 which is a sign of one or two things happening. Either football bettors are convinced coach Andy Reid will make an immediate impact on the Chiefs players or Jacksonville is as bad as they were last year. It is probably somewhere in the middle with the Jaguars 4-1 SU all-time at home in this matchup. Update– The love continues for the Chiefs (or the hated for the Jaguars), now up to -4.5. Almost three-quarters of bets placed are on Kansas City. SWM Take – Lean with Jacksonville
NFL – (463) CINCINNATI at (464) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS
To this point, the largest move on the totals side for Week 1 has been this encounter. The initial oddsmakers offering of 45.5 has been cut like Tim Tebow’s NFL career, down to 41.5. Defense is presumed to rule the day, with the Bears offense in transition and both clubs being able to rush the passer and create miscues. Update– There has been a modest buyback to 42 points for this contest. Of note, over 75 percent of bets placed are on the Over. SWM Take – Play Over
NFL – (465) MIAMI at (466) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Cleveland showed improvement this August as Brandon Weeden is working with Norv Turner to develop as quarterback. However, the Browns have a new coach and are putting in a new offense and it’s puzzling why Cleveland has been flipped from a one-point underdog to single digit favorite. This works in our favor with the Dolphins 23-11-1 ATS as a road underdog the past five years. Update– This morning, about 25 percent of books now have Cleveland at -2 and they have drawn nearly 80 percent of the action. SWM Take – Miami covers
NFL – (465) MINNESOTA at (466) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Christian Ponder is as popular among those betting football as Elizabeth Pahlke is with actor John Cusack, after his lawyers sent her a restraining order to keep the “fan” away from his Malibu beach front home according to TMZ.com. Minnesota was a typical 3.5-point road underdog heading to Detroit and has been shifted +6. The general consensus about these two teams is the Lions will be better this year, the Vikings might not after a surprise playoff season. Keep in mind, the Vikes are 11-3-2 ATS the past eight years. Update– A significant market correction with the Lions back to -4.5 or -4. The action is split at 50-50 on spread bets, but 80% of the money line is on the road team. SWM Take – Lean with Detroit
NFL – (471) OAKLAND at (472) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS *new addition
Based on various reports from reporters and scouts visiting NFL training camps and watching the team’s practice, Oakland is considered one of the two or three worst teams in the league this year. This information has NFL bettors boosting the Raiders from +6.5 to +9.5. This is a significant move, even with Terrelle Pryor named the starting quarterback and the Da Raaiders are 4-15 ATS on turf. Update– Basically 10 is the agreed upon number with 20 percent of books crossing over to 10.5. The total has tumbled from 49 to 47 or less in the past few days. SWM Take – Lean with Indianapolis and the Under
NFL – Monday (479) PHILADELPHIA at (480) WASHINGTON 7:10 ET ESPN *new
A little foggy in the rationale behind Washington falling from -4.5 to -3.5 or lower since it is well known first-year coaches struggle with mediocre teams, especially on the road. We are of the opinion Washington might actually be better than last year when they won the NFC East and Mike Vick will do something to help the Redskins cause. Chip Kelly is drawing a lot of support from league reporters and followers. SWM Take – Washington covers
NFL – Monday (481) HOUSTON at (482) SAN DIEGO 10:20 ET ESPN
This is a tricky spread just to begin with, as Houston at 2.5-point road favorites seems low. The number has since been built up to -5, which certainly feels like the right number, but why was it under three to begin with? This falls into the line of thinking if something is so easy it cannot be true and we found San Diego is 20-3 ATS vs. the AFC South. Update– The Las Vegas sportsbooks are still at -5 or -4.5, however, nearly all offshore books are at -3.5 for the Texans. SWM Take – Lean with San Diego.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Dallas is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Tampa Bay is 30-11 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
NFL Money Line Trend
Seattle is 9-3 when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points the last two years.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
