Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
As I was finishing this article up, the Cleveland and Baltimore game has seen the total rise a point from yesterday and is 44 after being released at 42.5 to start the week. Here are the rest of the NFL Line Moves updates along with one new addition. Using line moves can be an important wagering tool to profit from and should be read accordingly.
NFL – (199) TENNESSEE at (200) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
The Titans used three tight ends against Pittsburgh fairly often and might be inclined to do again and maintain the kind of pace they prefer. Houston is still a run first-team which can chew up the clock. These characteristics have helped those betting on football lower the total from 45.5 to 43. Let’s consider teams like the Texans when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, who are off a no-cover victory, playing against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog. This football totals system finds the UNDER 40-14, 74.1 percent, the last 30 years. Update – The total is thought to be correct with no movement all week. Just under 60 percent of wagers placed are tailing the Over. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (203) BUFFALO at (204) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
Carolina was ridiculously conservative in their opener (three passes beyond 10 yards) and the Buffalo equipment manager had to order the team all new shoes after the Bills repeatedly shot themselves in the feet in the last second loss to New England. With neither offense thought to be ballistic, the total has dropped from 45 to 43.5. Taking the total at face value and the Panthers favored by 3, we should have a 23-20 final and the two teams are a combined 20-1 OVER when they and the opposition scores 20 or more points past few years. Update – Very curious to see the total remains unchanged with 80+ percent backing the Over. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (209) WASHINGTON at (210) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET FOX *New
After being at a touchdown all week, Green Bay is drawing a lot of money and has moved off the seven to -8 this morning. This seems like quite figure for the Packers to overcome, but the Redskins pass defense is not good and the belief has to be Aaron Rodgers can exploit it. Still a significant number this early in the season to overcome. SWM Take – Lean with Washington
NFL – (209) DALLAS at (210) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET FOX
With a couple of Dallas players nicked and Kansas City dissolving Jacksonville, the Chiefs have been bumped from -1 to -3 for their home opener. K.C. is 28-13 ATS in non-conference home games the past 20 years, but the Cowboys are a sparkling 7-2 ATS versus the AFC lately. At first glance this line seems off in favor of Dallas, but checking most published internet power ratings finds the line pretty accurate. Update – Kansas City has been steady at three all week, yet is drawing less than 40 percent support. SWM Take –Dallas covers
NFL – (213) NEW ORLEANS at (214) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET FOX
In the past nine meetings between these NFC South rivals, the UNDER is 8-1. Why than would the total rise from 46 to 48 points? Good question, unless New Orleans is being thought of as the dominant team. The Saints are 15-6 OVER after beating the spread and 22-10 OVER after division home triumph. But Tampa Bay has to be bitterly disappointed in literally giving away a victory and after last week’s result; they are 31-11 UNDER the first two weeks of the season. Update – With over 85 percent backing, this is the contest with the most one way action on the totals side. The number 48 has held steady. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (215) DETROIT at (216) ARIZONA 4:05 ET FOX
Reggie Bush sparked the Detroit offense with almost 200 yards of offense, as the Lions were sharp in the opener. Arizona hired Bruce Arians to be their coach; nevertheless, it was still the same old Cardinals who blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead at St. Louis. Detroit players believe they will have a bounce back year and so do bettors this week, raising the Lions from a Pick to -1.5. Here is the issue with backing Detroit; they are 1-10 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less. Update – As of Thursday, most books went to the Lions by two and this is where it has stayed. SWM Take – Lean with Arizona
NFL – (217) JACKSONVILLE at (218) OAKLAND 4:25 ET CBS
Jacksonville started where they left off last year in being smoked at home by Kansas City 28-2. With Oakland providing a representative effort against the Colts, the Raiders were moved from -3.5 to -6. Here is question of the day; can you really back a team like the Raiders who are 9-23 ATS as a home favorite since 2003? Let’s call this the – Pick your Poison Play of the Week! Update – A definite adjustment has occurred with the Raiders down to -5.5 and as low as -4 at some offshore sportsbooks. SWM Take – Lean with Oakland
NFL – (219) DENVER at (220) N.Y. GIANTS 4:25 ET CBS
The next Manning Bowl is the doubleheader game and there is expected to be no shortage of points. The original number of 54.5 has been replaced by 56. This seems like an overreaction to last week’s results in which the Direct TV stars combined to throw for 11 touchdowns (12 if you include the Cowboys Pick Six of Eli), as both QB’s helped there teams crush the total. However, I did find the Giants are 8-1 OVER after a division loss by seven or less points with the average total score at 58.8. Update – Back down to 55 total points and even some betting outlets back to original figure. SWM Take – Lean with Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
San Diego is 0-8 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Detroit is 11-1 OVER as a road favorite of three points or less.
NFL Money Line Trend
Seattle is 32-6 in home games after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game.
NFL First Half Line Trend
St. Louis is 6-22 as a road underdog of 2 to 3.5 points.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
