Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Here is the absolute latest in the NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Sunday. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (393) CLEVELAND at (394) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
Christian Ponder is looking less like a franchise quarterback every week, yet Minnesota is a growing favorite in a contest between a pair of 0-2 teams. The Vikings were a field goal favorite and jumped to -5.5. It is Minnesota’s home opener and Cleveland has done little on offense with Brandon Weeden, who is doubtful. If you saw how backup Jason Campbell played for the Browns last week, the line move makes sense. Update – No Trent Richardson, Brian Hoyer named the starting quarterback and Cleveland players are publicly wondering what is going on. The Browns are up to +7, receiving less than 15 percent of the action. SWM Take – Minnesota covers
NFL – (395) TAMPA BAY at (396) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET FOX
The Patriots offensive woes have football bettors wondering where Tom Brady and company are headed and they dumped the total from 46 to 44. New England is averaging just 18 PPG and when you consider the defense has caused six turnovers, it is no wonder the Pats are 25th in the NFL in yards per point, far below their customary position. The Tampa Bay offense is also stalled, with QB Josh Freeman completing less than half his passes (45.2%). Update – No changes since Tuesday and the action has been fairly balanced with UNDER as just below 55 percent. SWM Take – Lean with the Under
NFL – (401) ARIZONA at (402) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX *New
With Larry Fitzgerald upgraded to ‘Probable’, Arizona has sunk from +9 to +7.5 against New Orleans. The Cardinals are capable of slipping under a touchdown, just keep in mind the Saints are 13-3 ATS as home favorites. SWM Take – Lean with Arizona
NFL – (403) DETROIT at (404) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX *New
The Washington Redskins are thought so little of they have been flipped from a field goal favorite to a single digit home underdog. This is noteworthy since Detroit is 0-16 lifetime in Washington (0-21 if you count playoff games) and the Lions are 2-6-2 ATS as road favorites since 2004. SWM Take – Lean with Washington
NFL – (405) GREEN BAY at (406) CINCINNATI 1:00 ET FOX
Cincinnati knocked off Pittsburgh on Monday night, something they rarely do and have to prepare for Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, who leads the league in passing yards. This will be the second straight week Green Bay catches an opponent off a Monday nighter, however, the Bengals will have the benefit of playing at home. The Bengals were initially made a one-point home underdog, but this number has grown to three. It would seem there is plenty to like about a home dog who is 8-1 ATS after a win by 10 or more points the last three seasons. Update – Though the Packers are being chosen over 80 percent of the time, about 20 percent of sportsbooks are now at -2.5 and the vast majority of the rest have Green Bay -3 (Even). SWM Take – Lean with Green Bay
NFL – (407) N.Y. GIANTS at (408) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX
In another confrontation of winless teams, the Giants were a three-point underdog to Carolina and quicker than a New York minute, were reduced to +1 or even a Pick at some locations. The consensus is the Giants are having their issues, yet still have better players than Carolina and are better coached. Big Blue is 24-11 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or more. Update – The G-Men have seen the money pouring in on them all week, now at -2 or -2.5 and Brent Musburger gave his seal of improvement in last night’s Texas telecast saying, “The Giants are the play for those that follow the numbers…”SWM Take – Giants cover
NFL – (409) ATLANTA at (410) MIAMI 4:05 ET FOX
Miami has their home opener and if Dolphins cannot be excited about their team after a pair of road win upsets for a 2-0 record, maybe they should go to more Marlins games. The betting public likes what they have seen from Miami and shifted them a Pick to -2 versus Atlanta. Here’s the rub on Miami, they are a dreadful 0-8 ATS off two consecutive road wins. Update – The money continues to flow on the Dolphins with -2.5 and -3’s popping up everywhere. This must be sharp money, because Miami catching just over 25 percent support. SWM Take – Atlanta covers
NFL – (413) JACKSONVILLE at (414) SEATTLE 4:25 ET CBS
Jacksonville decided to stay on the West Coast after facing Oakland with Seattle up next instead of flying cross-country. This has not mattered to football fanatics who have jettisoned the Jaguars from +16.5 to +20, which is the largest September NFL spread. This is a very difficult wager to make either way. Update – After flirting with -20 most of the week, Seattle is back to -18.5 or -19, with the Jags the play at almost 60 percent. SWM Take – Lean with Jacksonville
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 2-18 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992.
NFL Totals Trend
Cleveland is 12-1 UNDER after scoring 14 points or less in last game the last three seasons.
NFL Money Line Trend
Baltimore is 24-5 in September home games.
NFL First Half Line Trend
Minnesota is 8-0 after playing their last game on the road the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
