Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 4
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 4
By Doug Upstone
For the first time in a few years, no major changes on Sunday for Line Moves except in the battle for Ohio. Here are all the updates on games to be played. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (199) PITTSBURGH vs. (200) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
No place like London to be for these pair of 0-3 teams. The comments from both head coaches lead one to believe neither is thrilled about the journey and would prefer to use the time for practice. But at least those doing NFL betting see value in one squad, taking Pittsburgh from a Pick to -2. The concern with backing Big Ben in London is he and the Steelers are 0-6 ATS away from home the first month of the season. Update – Pittsburgh has continued to grow as a favorite, up to -3, with almost 60 percent backing them. SMW Take – Lean with Minnesota
NFL – (203) CINCINNATI at (204) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS *New
In the battle for Ohio, last week both teams surpassed the 30-point barrier which could have influenced the total rising from 41 to 42.5. I disagree with this line move, not being sold on QB Brian Hoyer having success against a much stronger defense in the Bengals and Cincinnati being 7-0 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins. Update – This number has come back a touch, mostly residing at 42, though 65 percent are betting the Over. Also, Cincinnati has fallen from -5 to -3.5, with almost exclusive sharp action. SMW Take – Lean Under and the Cincinnati
NFL – (207) SEATTLE at (208) HOUSTON 1:00 ET FOX
Seattle and Houston rank No. 1 and 2 in total defense in the NFL which undoubtedly has played a part in the total falling two points to 42.5. But hold on a second, we have news to the contrary to think about. The Seahawks, off their 45-17 drubbing of Jacksonville is 7-0 OVER after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game and the Texans are 18-8 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points. Update – This total has continue to tumble, now at 41.5. Oddly enough, just under 35% are on the UNDER. SMW Take – Play Over
NFL – (211) CHICAGO at (212) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
You have to wonder if the Bears are paid bonuses based on turnovers, because their opponents have already handed the ball over to Chicago 11 times in 2013. This has directly impacted the Bears being 3-0 OVER this season and is among the reasons the total for this NFC North matchup has stepped up from 47 to 48.5. Detroit is also 15-6 OVER as a favorite the last three seasons. Update – A slight buyback with total now at 48 and whopping 79 percent are on the OVER. SMW Take – Play Over
NFL – (223) NEW ENGLAND at (224) ATLANTA 8:30 ET NBC
Atlanta could be 3-0, the same as New England, but has failed in the clutch. The Falcons inability to close has left them at 1-2, yet they have gone from +1 or a Pick at most sportsbooks to -2. Here is why, under coach Mike Smith, Atlanta 14-4 against the spread off a road loss, winning by an average of 12 points a game. Update – On Thursday, the Falcons flew to -2.5 which where they have stay at. SMW Take – Atlanta covers
NFL – Monday (225) MIAMI at (226) NEW ORLEANS 8:40 ET ESPN
Miami’s 3-0 start to the season is certainly a surprise; however, New Orleans has the look of returning to a Super Bowl contender, especially playing at home. The Saints were raised a point and a half to -6.5 and are a scintillating 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less since 2011. The Dolphins should not be overlooked with a 7-0 ATS mark off a non-conference game. Update – On Friday, the Saints marched to touchdown favorites and remained there with 70 percent support. SMW Take – New Orleans covers.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Chicago is 0-8 ATS off a non-conference game the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Indianapolis is 11-1 UNDER versus division opponents the last three seasons.
NFL First Half Line Trend
Atlanta is 4-17 after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games.
NFL Money Line Trend
Cleveland is 3-19 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
