Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 6
Sports Betting NFL Line Moves and Top Trends for Week 6
By Doug Upstone
Here are your up to the minute NFL Line Moves for Week 6. Studying line moves can become a very profitable venture if you know what to look for.
NFL – (203) OAKLAND at (204) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET FOX
The Chiefs are a remarkable 5-0 after a 2-14 campaign and sportsbooks made Kansas City a double digit betting choice at -10. Yet, football bettors are not seeing it that way and have lowered K.C. to -8.5 or -8. Here’s why, it is impossible to ignore Oakland is 7-0 ATS mark at Arrowhead Stadium since 2006, having won the last six straight. Update – The lack of K.C. support continues, down to -7.5, with just over 55 % backing. SWM Take – Oakland covers
NFL – (211) CAROLINA at (212) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET FOX
In a case of what have you done for me lately; Carolina has gone from a three-point road favorite at Arizona to a growing underdog at Minnesota. The Panthers 38-0 drubbing of the Giants means little after losing in the desert 22-6 last Sunday. Carolina quickly went from +1 to +2.5, but keep in mind these Cats are 8-1 ATS off a road setback. Update – The Vikes have maintained the same edge and the football betting public on them at 80 percent rate. SWM Take – Carolina covers
NFL – (215) PITTSBURGH at (216) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
When the opening numbers were released Sunday night, Pittsburgh was a one-point favorite. After the Jets upset Atlanta on the road, it looked like line at Apple store for a new I-Phone release and the New York Jets flew to a two-point favorite and eventually 2.5. No question the Monday upset played directly into line moving, but so does the fact the Jets have the No. 2 total defense and the Steelers are 29th in points scored (17.2). Update – Massive recall with this matchup with most sportsbooks at a Pick and a few are back to the Steelers -1. Pitt is at just under 40% backing. SWM Take – Pittsburgh covers
NFL – (217) CINCINNATI at (218) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS *New
With Buffalo having to look deep down the bench to find a quarterback, the Bills became an irresistible play against team and blow up from +3 to +6. Buffalo might be 7-0 ATS off a road loss the last two seasons, but this would seem to be a tough assignment, unless Andy Dalton plays like one of the Bills funky QB’s. SWM Take – Cincinnati covers
NFL – (219) TENNESSEE at (220) SEATTLE 4:05 ET CBS *New
Have to admit, a bit surprised the see Seahawks sinking two points to -11.5. I mean what the heck; Ryan Fitzpatrick ought to be worth two picks, leading to 10 Seattle points right off the top. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS vs. offensive teams scoring 24 or more point’s game since 2011. SWM Take – Seattle covers
NFL – (221) JACKSONVILLE at (222) DENVER 4:05 ET CBS
While all the attention is on Denver being such an enormous favorite, those betting NFL football have focused their attention on the total. The original figure 51.5 has been jettisoned to 55. This contest is the biggest mismatch in the history of modern NFL sports betting, but what matters for this one is Jacksonville is 7-0 OVER in road games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points. . Update – Another significant adjustment, with the total anywhere from 52.5 to 53.5, though the Over is almost a 3-1 choice. SWM Take – Play Over
NFL – (227) WASHINGTON at (228) DALLAS 8:30 ET NBC
For all the promise of Dallas, they own a 2-3 record. The difficult loss to Denver might ultimately sum up Tony Romo’s career in a nutshell, but those betting football are saddling up with the Cowboys, shifting them from -4.5 to -6.5. Don’t count me among the believers with Washington 11-2 ATS against Dallas, including six straight covers in Big D. Update – A one point reduction on Dallas to -5.5, at nearly 60%. SWM Take – Washington covers
NFL – Monday (229) INDIANAPOLIS at (230) SAN DIEGO 8:40 ET ESPN
San Diego gift-wrapped a contest for Oakland with 5-0 turnover deficit in falling 27-17. What makes that loss sting is the two giveaway defeats to Houston and Tennessee, which magnifies the last performance. The Chargers are losing faith in the wagering community and have grown from a one-point home underdog to two. While the Bolts have a long history of success against the Colts, they are 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in the last game. Update – The number has settled at Indy -1.5, but I note a couple of offshore books that cater to sharps have this contest as a Pick. SWM Take – Lean with San Diego
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFLATS Trend
Seattle is 9-0 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in their previous game the last two seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Denver is 9-0 OVER after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game since Manning arrived.
NFL First Half Trend
The Jets are 1-8 off one or more straight Over’s the last two seasons.
NFL Money Line Trend
New England is 13-1 versus defensive teams allowing six or more yards a play.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
