Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Tren
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Today we see what changes bettors have made on line moves from mid-week on games we talked about the other day and what news additions we have. Also, check out the Top 3 totals by bettors, hitting 75 percent thus far. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (166-125 L58D)
NFL – (453) CLEVELAND at (454) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET CBS *NEW*
By Wednesday night, Tennessee has gone from -1 to -2 but by Saturday when more football bettors examined this contest, they determined Cleveland was rested and simply the better team and shifted the Browns to -1. Among my favorite NFL stats is yards per point, which explains how effective teams are in scoring based on the numbers of yards they gain. Coming into this AFC encounter, the Titans are 32nd in defense and 28th on offense and 1-8 ATS versus teams scoring 24 or more points game the last three seasons. SWM Take – Cleveland covers
NFL – (455) ST. LOUIS at (456) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX
With a depleted offensive line, Philadelphia is no mustering much support and has been lowered from -8 to -7 against St. Louis. LeSean McCoy has nowhere to run, which places more on Nick Foles plate to generate offense. In addition, giving more than a touchdown with the Eagles could cause queasiness given their 4-14 ATS home record the past three years. Update – The erosion of the Eagles continues, with Philly down to -6.5 and few books even at -6, though 68 percent have bet on them. SWM Take – Lean St. Louis
NFL – (457) ATLANTA at (458) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET CBS *NEW*
The Matt Ryan-led offense has been crisp all year, while Eli Manning has found a comfort zone in recent weeks. This has spurred those betting football to take the total from 49 to 50.5, not convinced either defense can do much to stop the other. Though both teams are 3-1 OVER on the season, Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER on the road after a contest in which both teams scored 24 or more points. SWM Take – Play Under
NFL – (461) HOUSTON at (462) DALLAS 1:00 ET CBS
With Dallas off to an astonishing start, those betting football are willing to go back into the water to back the Cowboys. Dallas opened as -4 point favorites and has been elevated to -6. The Cowboys dynamic offense is a big part of the reason and the defense, at least from points allowed perspective (10th in NFL), has been solid. With Arian Foster and Andre Johnson already nicked, is Ryan Fitzpatrick able to carry the load. Update – Dallas moved one tick higher to -6.5, yet curiously just over 50 percent are backing the Boys. Sounds like wise guy action. SWM Take – Slight lean Dallas
NFL – (465) BALTIMORE at (466) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
Joe Flacco is becoming more comfortable with his pass-catchers and Andrew Luck is locked in with his receivers, having 13 TD passes after just four games. With the tightened pass inference rules, the total jumped 2.5-points to 49. However, I’m not on board when understanding John Harbaugh’s Ravens are 10-1 UNDER after two consecutive covers as a favorite. Update – No change since Wednesday with bettors satisfied with 49 and 82 percent think this is an OVER play. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – (469) ARIZONA at (470) DENVER 4:05 ET FOX
The word is spreading about Arizona and we will get a closer look this week where the Cardinals really are. With both teams off byes for this non-conference clash, Denver has sunk from -8.5 to touchdown favorites. Coach Bruce Arians Cards are 12-6-1 ATS under his direction. However, John Fox wearing a Broncos cap is 11-3 ATS if his team has won two out of their last three games. Update – On Thursday, Denver went to -7.5 and this is where it has stayed, which suggests sportsbooks saying you either pay for Peyton Manning or by the hook. Just past half of bettors on the Broncos. SWM Take – Lean Arizona
NFL – (475) CINCINNATI at (476) NEW ENGLAND 8:30 ET NBC
Cincinnati going from +3 to -1.5 at New England is in direct correlation what we saw Monday night. The Patriots have serious questions on both sides of the ball and Bill Belichick the general manager has left Bill Belichick the head coach without many good options with recent players drafted that are not working out. While the Patriots should be fired up and ready, the Bengals are rested and 6-0 ATS in road games after a pair of wins by 10 or more points. Update – Almost everywhere New England is +2.5. Really difficult situation to read because I agree Cincinnati has the better team, thus they should win by seven, or the Pats –circle the proverbial wagons – and they win by seven. 72 percent think it will be the former scenario. SWM Take – Slight lean with New England
Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 6-6) – Bears, Steelers and Browns
Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams, record 9-3) –Chargers OVER, Colts OVER and Jaguars OVER
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Indianapolis is 11-1 ATS at home when the total is 45.5 or higher.
NFL Totals Trend
Chicago is 8-0 OVER after playing a game at home the last two seasons.
NFL First Half Trend
New Orleans is 9-0 ATS in home games the last two seasons.
MLB Money Line Trend
The L.A.A. Angels are 8-0 in road games after scoring three runs or less in three straight games since last year.
MLB Totals Trend
- Norris of the Orioles is 11-2 UNDER after two or more consecutive wins since last season.
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