Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
(With a light schedule in sports today, I completed research which is set to help sports bettors more long term for the rest of the baseball. Line Moves will be back tomorrow.)
When to Bet a Hot Streak – Looking at Baseball
A common theme that has flummoxed bettors in all sports for years is when to jump on a streak. It is frustrating to watch a team like the San Antonio Spurs cover eight in a row in March, only to turnaround and fail to not beat the spread in their last two regular seasons plus the first six contests of their playoff series with Dallas for a total of eight.
As human beings, we will often hesitate jump on a streak or “to let it ride”, believing the moment we arrive the streak will end. I cannot tell you how many times myself and others I’ve seen have tried to nudge their way onto a hot craps table, lay out the proper amount of bets, only to see the shooter “crap out”, costing me money while making themselves and most of the people at the table a significant profit.
One aspect about streaks, the human mind is odd, when we think about streak, we seldom think of losing streaks, which are negative, and tend to focus on winning streaks, which are positive. The truth is when it comes to sports betting; they are exactly the same and should be viewed as such.
What is considered a streak in baseball?
So when should a baseball bettor hop on stretch of good or bad play? An unscientific method which I have gotten from a few professional gambling friends this spring is four. The reason for this number is the vast majority of the time this will encompass parts of two series and take away the terrific and horrible play which can occur in one series versus one opponent.
Time will not permit me to dig back in prior years but I have still been able to arrive at some very useful data.
I broke this down into teams which have won or lost four in a row and stayed with the streak until it ended. Besides this, also dug a bit deeper to find out what the results were if they were a favorite or an underdog.
Favorites Generate a Profit, Just not in the way you might imagine
Having won four in a row, the optimist would probably look at streaking club in the role of favorite and keep backing them. Doomsday bettors would view this as a chance to match their darker side and bet against the streak. It turns both are right, except on the money line, which is where the payoff is.
Favorites which have won four or more consecutive games are 18-15, -3.55 units.
If a team has won this many times and is an underdog, they are mostly likely in an unfavorable pitching matchup and probably on the road. This turns out to be about as presumed with a 7-11 record for -1.95 units.
The final tally has these teams at 25-26 for nice +5.45 units profit when betting against them.
Cold Clubs are Money, Both Ways
Though are sample size encompasses not quite one-third of the season, you will like the results.
Teams having lost four or more times which are favored have occurred 20 of 50 occasions. As mentioned above, in similar fashion, the loser is probably home and has a better starter. However, all streaks are born out of a particular facet, in this case meager hitting or pitching. In most cases the defeats keep on coming.
Favorites are 7-13 -9.9 units
Pretty good right! Let’s move on to the real money and it is an unlikely source of revenue.
Let’s take this team and place them in the role of underdog. Top of mind reasoning would suggest the losing continues, but as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend!”
Instead, these losing pooches are lovable!
Underdogs off four or more setbacks are 20-10 +19.47 units
Obviously these teams have been playing with added incentive and their lines are probably slightly juiced against by oddsmakers for past failures.
As stated, the season is still early and events could change at a moment’s notice, nonetheless, it could be smart to play attention to “streakers” and look to profit from them.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
