Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends

Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends

By Doug Upstone

With the large majority of the line moves in baseball either having chalky favorites becoming larger or marginally smaller, thought we would celebrate the return of NFL football. This was made easier today with a number of line moves in tonight’s exhibitions. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (73-58 L33D)

NFLX – (251) INDIANAPOLIS at (252) N.Y. JETS  7:00 E  WNDY, CBS2

Oddmakers got caught by the end of the first week of the NFL Preseason last year on totals with the OVER at 12-7. Football bettors have examined this AFC affair and see even more points adding up than the sportsbooks original figure. Coach Rex Ryan was given a pass last year after his team overachieved based on preseason forecasts. The New York Jets will need to win this year, placing greater pressure on Ryan and quite possibly the belief is the Flyboys will score and emerge victorious. Indianapolis is catching 3.5-points and comes in 29-15 OVER as a NFLX underdog. SWM Take – Lean Under

NFLX – (255) SAN FRANCISCO at (256) BALTIMORE  7:30 E  NFLN

Baltimore has a nice history of wanting to perform well in Week 1 with a 6-1 ATS record of late. For these two perennial playoff teams, the stakes are not high, but this angle is strongly supported by John Harbaugh tendencies, which quite possibly has moved the Ravens from a Pick to -2. There is also a train of thought with San Francisco suffering several key losses already, they might back off the peddle and play more of the bottom end of their current roster than Baltimore. SWM Take – Lean Baltimore to cover

NFLX – (257) CINCINNATI at (258) KANSAS CITY  8:00 E  CBS12, KCTV

We have a significant rise in the total for these two AFC squads, up 2.5-points to 37. In researching the numbers, nearly 70 percent of bettors are on the OVER, by far the most one-sided total today. In looking over the team reports, there was nothing at least to me that indicates such a shift; however, I did find Cincinnati is 15-6 OVER on the road under coach Marvin Lewis. SWM Take – Lean Over

NFLX – (259) SEATTLE at (260) DENVER  9:00E  Q113FOX, KUSA

When these lines were first released, Denver was a two-point choice and likely many at that time thought the Broncos had the revenge card to play, which would work to their advantage. But the week progressed, the money came pouring in on the Super Bowl champs and they are up to -2.5. By now everyone knows Peter Carroll likes to win no matter the stakes, which is exhibited by his 8-0 ATS NFLX record the past two years. If this were a regular season game, considering revenge would make more sense, but with many of the players who will be playing having not even participated in the big game last February, that point is moot. With the flip, this brings into play the Seahawks being 7-0 ATS as favorites. SWM Take – Lean Seattle to cover

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends

MLB Money Line Trend

Boston is 1-10 after four straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base this season.

MLB Totals Trend

Miami is 11-1 OVER after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits this season.

MLB Run Line Trend

Kansas City is 21-3 in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game this season.

NFLX ATS Trend

Dallas is15-42 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

NFLX Totals Trend

Seattle is 28-14 OVER as a favorite in the preseason.

This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.