Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Another college football weekend is upon us and we have a trio a brand new line moves to cover, along with updates from earlier matchups this week, plus who are the teams the public is backing the most thus far in terms of percentage of bets. Be back here Sunday morning for the NFL. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (112-82 L46D)
CFB – Friday (305) WASHINGTON STATE at (306) NEVADA 10:30 E ESPN
Despite Washington State losing at home to Rutgers as favorites, the Cougars have moved the meter from a Pick to -3. The thought here is backing the power conference on the road and Nevada no longer enjoys the same home field edge they used to. Though Washington State was only a .500 team a year ago, they did cover all six road assignments. Update – Midweek, Washington State did jump up to -3.5, but as of Friday morning was back to -3. Almost 60 percent betting the Cougars. SWM Take – Washington State covers
CFB – (321) MISSOURI at (322) TOLEDO 12:00 ET ESPN *NEW*
On Tuesday afternoon, this line started moving towards the home underdog Rockets and they are now at +3.5 after starting at +6. Toledo for years has been among the best teams in the MAC and has annually played a strong non-conference slate to prepare for league play. The Rockets have long been a strong play at the Glass Bowl (54-34 ATS since 1992) and Missouri is replacing a number of players on both sides of the ball, giving football reason to believe a live home dog is present. Just keep in mind Missouri is 41-25 ATS off a non-cover. Lost quite a bit of value, but still worth a look. SWM Take – Lean Toledo
CFB – (331) NEW MEXICO STATE at (332) GEORGIA STATE 2:00 ET W-ESPN *NEW*
New Mexico State going from an underdog to a favorite on the road happens about often as Jimmy Fallon does not overreact to what guests say on the Tonight Show. The Aggies have gone from +1.5 to -2 at Georgia State, who is in their second full season of FBS football. While it difficult to think of New Mexico State as an away favorite (one time in last decade), they are the better team here and win consecutive games for the first time since 2011. SWM Take – New Mexico State covers
CFB – (335) SOUTH ALABAMA at (336) KENT STATE 2:00 ET W-ESPN
After a couple years of success, Kent State is returning to what they have always been, a very mediocre football program. This is pointed out by their home loss to Ohio. U in the opener 17-14, dropping them to 0-6 ATS at home the past two years. This is South Alabama’s first game and they have been pumped up from a Pick to -3. Update – Football bettors are satisfied with this number and it’s a bit of a surprise it has not gone higher with South Alabama having 94 percent support. SWM Take – Lean South Alabama
CFB – (341) AKRON at (342) PENN STATE 12:00 ET ABC/ESPN
Despite how well Christian Hackenberg played in Penn State’s win over UCF, the Nittany Lions are down from -18.5 to -15. No doubt the travel from Dublin back to the states can suck the energy out of a team and what is the real motivation for Penn State? Guessing the Nittany Lions are flat at first but awake later and take care of business. Update – Penn State continues to crumble in bettors’ eyes, now at -14.5. However, almost 60 percent are still in their corner. SWM Take – Penn State covers
CFB – (351) MICHIGAN STATE at (352) OREGON 6:30 ET FOX
In spite of what appears to be a good matchup, the money is flowing towards Oregon up from -11.5 to -13. Clearly the thought is how does Michigan State match points with the Ducks or try and contain their speed? Your spread winner will be who controls the tempo and usually in Eugene, it’s the home team. Update – By Wednesday, Oregon was hovering at -12, but early Friday afternoon they were back to -13. However, respected money seems to be driving this number with the Ducks at only 31 percent of bets placed. SWM Take – Lean Oregon to cover
CFB – (363) EAST CAROLINA at (364) SOUTH CAROLINA 7:00 ET ESPNU
South Carolina’s defense was bludgeoned by a first time quarterback and now has to face a known quantity in Shane Carden of East Carolina. Bettors are unconcerned and trust Steve Spurrier who find answers and lifted the Gamecocks from -13.5 to 16. South Carolina is 9-1 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes the last few years. Update – Once again a case is made for sharper money, with the Gamecocks at -16.5 despite just over 50 percent backing. SWM Take – South Carolina covers
CFB – (365) SAN JOSE STATE at (366) AUBURN 7:00 ET ESPN2
Auburn is up two points to -31 and let’s be honest, with their offense, they can have the final score be whatever they want depending on hard they want to play. The Tigers are 13-2 against the spread since last season. Update – To the surprise of nobody, Auburn has been bet up again to -33 at just under 95 percent. SWM Take – Auburn covers
CFB – (383) AIR FORCE at (384) WYOMING 10:15 ET ESPNU
Both MWC teams did what they needed to in their openers. However, with Air Force playing into revenge from a 33-point home loss and owning an 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS) record in Wyoming; the Falcons have been flipped from +1.5 to -1. The outcome will be determined by how well the Cowboys handle the Air Force option offense. Update – The cash is still flying in on the Falcons, now at -2.5, yet less than half of wagers placed are on them, curious! SWM Take – Lean Air Force
CFB – (387) OREGON STATE at (388) HAWAI’I 10:30 ET CBSSN *NEW*
The old Rainbow Warriors (great nickname) used to have one of the best home field edges in college football, but that has eroded in recent years. Yet for the second week in a row, Hawai’i is being dropped as a home pooch against the mighty Pac-12 and are down to +10 from +12.5 last Sunday night. If you like the home dog, remember the Warriors are 8-1 ATS in non-conference the last few seasons and Oregon State is 11-24 ATS in September road games. SWM Take – Lean Hawai’i
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Kentucky, Utah, South Alabama, Auburn and Maryland
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Western Kentucky, Colo. State, Mich. State, New Mexico, SMU
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Ohio U. is 0-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival the last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
South Florida is 14-0 UNDER after a win by six or less points.
CFB First Half Trend
Temple is 9-1 ATS as an underdog since last season.
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