Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
This week I could written about 20 different games for line moves with a ton of contests moving in all directions on sides on totals. Instead, I added three with major moves since Tuesday along with updates from the earlier line moves. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (147-110 L55D)
CFB – (115) MINNESOTA at (116) MICHIGAN 3:30 E ABC/ESPN2
Barring a miracle, this should be the end of the Brady Hoke era at Michigan at the end of the season. However for this contest, football bettors are expecting the Wolverines to step up like they always do against Minnesota, having won 30 of 32 SU. Michigan was moved from -8 to -11 and has covered six in a row. Update – You need sandbags to stop the flood of sharp Michigan money, now up to -13. This despite almost 60 percent of bets place on Minnesota. SWM Take – Lean Michigan
CFB – (117) MARYLAND at (118) INDIANA 1:30 ET BTN
No question the Indiana’s upset of Missouri is the reason why the Hoosiers have been sent from -2.5 to -5. Another factor is Maryland did not handle West Virginia’s no-huddle offense well and Indiana does the same thing with more of a running accent. The Hoosiers are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, but will the momentum of last week carry forward? Update – As expected, this Big Ten battle has calmed down; with Indiana back to -4 with concerns can they stay focused again. The Terps are attracting 75 percent of the action. SWM Take – Lean Maryland
CFB – (129) AKRON at (130) PITTSBURGH 1:30 ET W-ESPN
Talk to a Pitt alum and they would have told you the Panthers were in trouble last week against Iowa. For whatever reason this program cannot stand prosperity. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh has the right kind of opponent were their potent running game should pound away at Akron. This has sent the Zips from +17.5 to +20, though Akron is 6-0 ATS away after 50+ pass attempts. Update –This line peaked at 20.5 on Wednesday and is generally at 20, with over 90 percent of the bets placed on Pitt. SWM Take – Pittsburgh covers
CFB – (131) IOWA at (132) PURDUE 12:00 ET BTN
Super bounce back effort by Iowa in upset of Pittsburgh. At this time we do not know if QB Jake Rudock or backup CJ Beathard will start, but Beathard gave the offense a pace in the second half last week. The Hawkeyes have been lowered two points to -10.5 as Purdue has looked improved the last couple weeks, but the Boilermakers are 2-10 ATS versus winning teams. Update – Nobody was impressed with Iowa’s road upset at Pittsburgh as the number on the Hawkeyes has dwindled to -8.5 or -9. Purdue is at 55 percent of bets made. SWM Take – Lean Iowa
CFB – (139) VANDERBILT at (140) KENTUCKY 12:00 ET SECN
Vanderbilt gave South Carolina all they could handle for 49 minutes before succumbing. Not sure Vandy will have the same enthusiasm on the road against a much-improved Kentucky crew. The Wildcats have been pumped up from -15 to -17 and should be fresh off a bye week. Of concern is Kentucky is only 3-5 ATS as a SEC home favorite. Update – Bettors are very satisfied with 17 points in this SEC confrontation and have given Kentucky 70 percent support. SWM Take – Kentucky covers
CFB – (143) COLORADO STATE at (144) BOSTON COLLEGE 12:30 ET FSN Affiliates *NEW*
While Colorado State puts up an impressive 34.7 PPG, those betting on football are not certain the Rams will travel well to Chestnut Hill. Boston College’s punishing running game averages 336 YPG and Colorado State is surrendering 477 YPG and 5.2 yards carry. People recall what they saw the Eagles do to USC and moved B.C. from -5 to -9.5. Boston College is 6-0 ATS off a home game, but the key for CSU is making this a shootout, being 8-1 ATS when they tally 28 or more points. SWM Take – Slight Lean with Colorado State
CFB – (153) BOWLING GREEN at (154) MASSACHUSETTS 3:00 ET W-ESPN
Those betting football do not like handing out points on teams that play bad defense. Bowling Green has a fantastic offensive passing game, but subtract the contest against VMI and they are surrendering 56.3 PPG in all other games. Each team they faced is very good offensively but it makes people nervous to see that kind of number the Falcons are down to -7 from -10.5. Update – After the initial tumble, Bowling Green fell off the cliff again to present -4.5, being the worst total defense in college football. Still 59 percent are flying with the Falcons. SWM Take – Lean with Bowling Green
CFB – (181) FLORIDA STATE at (182) N.C. STATE 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2 *NEW*
If you are getting bored with Jameis Winston’s antics, you are not alone. He’s starting to become as annoying as the Kardashian’s. Though nobody in the Florida State program is saying anything, you know Jimbo Fisher wants to focus on football, not distractions. Football bettors also have concerns about the Noles, and have sent them from -23 to -18.5. Besides Winston’s ongoing saga, a veteran offense line is only generating 110 YPG on the ground and Florida State is 1-11-1 ATS against N.C. State since 2001. If Seminoles come to play, they cover no problem, but if they do not, we will see! SWM Take – Lean N.C. State
CFB – (185) CINCINNATI at (186) OHIO STATE 6:00 ET BTN *NEW*
For college football bettors in this battle of Ohio, they might as well be saying – In Urban We Trust. Ohio State has blossomed from -14 to -17.5 because veteran Meyer’s watchers know his team’s are 19-6 ATS off a bye and the only way Ohio State would seem to make the Final Four is the Buckeyes steamrolling every opponent on the schedule, making everyone forget Virginia Tech. Cincinnati can score with QB Gunner Kiel, but the defense is allowing 29 PPG. SWM Take – Ohio State covers
CFB – (189) MEMPHIS at (190) OLE MISS 7:30 ET FOX Affiliates
When I saw the oddsmakers opening number of Ole Miss -21, I wondered if it would hold up, having seen a much improve Memphis team. My thoughts were accurate and the Tigers have been lowered to +18.5. Mississippi has the necessary talent to win by 25 and is 12-4 ATS the first part of the season the last few years. I just wonder if Rebels players are thinking about Alabama next week. Update – The next wave of gamblers did not agree with those early in the week and pushed Ole Miss back to -21. The Rebels have 52 percent support. SWM Take – Lean Memphis
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 10-9) – UL-Monroe, Nevada, Pittsburgh, Nebraska and UTSA
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 11-9) – Texas State, Maryland, Duke, Washington and Miami-O
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Northwestern is 0-9 ATS after a game at home the last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
South Florida is 15-0 UNDER after a win by six or less points.
CFB First Half Trend
Navy is 2-16 ATS at home off one or more consecutive Under’s.
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