Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Another college football weekend is upon us and what a joy. We have the latest line moves, updates from earlier in the week, what bettors prefer most as favorites and underdogs and top betting trends. See you back here Sunday with the NFL! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (200-152 L65D)
CFB – Friday (109) TROY at (110) SOUTH ALABAMA 7:30 ET ESPNU
One week after their first win of the season, Troy was ambushed by Appalachian State 53-14 at home. Back on Oct. 4, South Alabama beat the very same App. State squad 47-21 on the road. This has given football bettors the go ahead to raise the Jaguars two points to -14.5, with South Alabama on a three-game winning streak. Update – For the most part has stayed at 14.5 and 77 percent are backing the Jaguars. SWM Take – South Alabama covers
CFB – (117) SOUTH CAROLINA at (118) AUBURN 7:30 ET SECN *NEW*
Many in the handicapping community look to play against teams after at least a 5-0 start, coming off their first loss of the season and if they are favored in next game, all the better. Those betting football look at Auburn and find tremendous team speed and a much improved defense taking on a South Carolina team gagging up 37.4 PPG in SEC action and have sent the Tigers from -17 to at least -19 depending on the sportsbooks. Auburn is 8-1 ATS against teams with winning records, but if you like the home team, the value is being sucked dry. SWM Take – Lean Auburn
CFB – (123) SYRACUSE at (124) CLEMSON 7:00 ET ESPNU
Cole Stoudt is a serviceable quarterback, he’s probably not going to hurt Clemson, but he’s not going to help them much either when it comes to scoring points. This is the top reason why the Tigers have tumbled from -15.5 to -14. Nonetheless, Syracuse has offensive issues of their own and Clemson is 10-1 ATS coming off a road game. Update – A modest buyback and a tricky one at 14.5, potentially forcing bettors to buy the hook with Clemson. Just over 50 percent are on the Orange. SWM Take – Lean Syracuse
CFB – (135) TEMPLE at (136) CENTRAL FLORIDA 5:00 ET CBSSN
It does not matter how good you are defensively, Central Florida is 123rd in total offense and averages just 23.8 PPG, which according to those betting football this makes them a bad choice as a favorite and they the Knights have been dumped two points to -8. Temple lost at Houston 31-10, but faces a UFC squad that is 2-10 ATS off a home victory. Update – On Wednesday, the line on this contest settled at 7, however on Friday, some Nevada sportsbooks were at 7.5. Temple is still the choice on 62 percent of tickets. SWM Take – Lean Central Florida
CFB – (143) VANDERBILT at (144) MISSOURI 4:00 ET SECN *NEW*
The SEC team from the “Show Me” is up three points to -24 in conference action. How do you figure Missouri, they have lost both home games to Power 5 conferences, somehow managed to come from behind at South Carolina and won last week 42-13, despite piling up an uninspiring 119 yards of total offense! Even against a lackluster Vandy crew, this sounds like an awful lot of points unless you are sure the Tigers offense finds itself. My take on Mizzou – Show Me! SWM Take – Vanderbilt covers
CFB – (153) RUTGERS at (154) NEBRASKA 12:00 ET ESPN2 *NEW*
The Rutgers defense has allowed 201.3 rushing yards per game in its last four. Next up for the Scarlet Knights is a trip to Lincoln (all expenses paid) to face the nation’s No. 7 rushing offense headed by Ameer Abdullah at 293.6 YPG. Rutgers main strength on offense is passing the ball and they are second in the country in yards per pass attempt at 9.8, however, the Cornhuskers are 13th nationally versus the forward pass in attempts at 5.8. When thinking about all these figures, the wagering public has come to a conclusion and taken the Children of the Corn from -17 to -20. SWM Take – Nebraska covers
CFB – (159) TEXAS TECH at (160) TCU 3:30 ET FOX
TCU was in the perfect letdown spot after Baylor loss, but they came right back and tormented Oklahoma State 42-9. With the Horned Frogs new up-tempo offense averaging 45.2 PPG, TCU was chased from -20 to -22 against the Big 12’s worst defense by yards allowed in Texas Tech. The Frogs are 8-1 ATS after gaining 575 or more yards in last outing. Update – More than 80 percent of books reviewed have TCU at -23 and they are very popular with sharps and handicappers alike. The public has also taken a shine to the Frogs at 76 percent. SWM Take – Lean TCU
CFB – (181) LOUISIANA TECH at (182) SOUTHERN MISS 3:30 ET (Some Comcast Aff.)
After being 1-23 the last two years, Southern Miss is 3-4 and is off a fairly impressive road upset at North Texas by 10 points as touchdown underdogs. The Eagles have discovered a good passing offense with QB Nate Mullens at the controls and this has helped lower Southern Miss from +10 to +8.5 home dogs. Both teams have numerous negative trends but Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in 2014. Update – As the week progressed, more favorite cash has poured in and Louisiana Tech is at -9.5. A ginormous 87 percent love these Bulldogs. SWM Take – Louisiana Tech covers
CFB – (191) WEST VIRGINIA at (192) OKLAHOMA STATE 3:30 ET ESPN
Being significantly improved and off the terrific upset of Baylor, West Virginia has fallen from +3 to +1 at Stillwater. The Mountaineers have arguably the best QB/WR combo in Clint Trickett to Kevin White and its defense is improving. However, Oklahoma State might be young, but they are still tough at home and are 17-3 ATS on their own turf off a loss by 21 or more. Update – The number has been steady all week, but early Friday afternoon we began to see Pick’em which could lead to this bouncing from -1 to +1, depending on the team. A bit over 60 percent are on the ‘Teers. SWM Take – Oklahoma State covers
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 19-20-1) – Cent. Michigan, Memphis, Marshall Georgia Southern and Boston College
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 22-17-1) – Texas State, UNLV, Kent State, Oregon State and San Jose State
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Rice is 20-3 ATS at home vs. poor ball control teams with 28 or less possession minutes a game.
CFB Totals Trend
Akron is 11-0 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival the last three seasons.
CFB First Half Trend
Memphis is 14-2 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses allowing 230 or more rushing yards a game.
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