Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
Besides the games we talk about here, Georgia Southern and Boise State are all at least three-point larger favorites than the oddsmakers original release. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (224-176 L72D)
CFB – (123) IOWA at (124) MINNESOTA 12:00 ET ESPN2 *NEW*
Iowa opened at -2.5 and that figure as been eroding as the week progressed, now to the point where Minnesota is one-point home favorite. In trying to figure out why, most would agree the Hawkeyes do not have much speed, however they are not that much slower than the Golden Gophers. The Iowa passing game can have droughts during games and Minnesota’s pass defense is above average, but the Gophers are primarily a running offense, which the Hawkeyes can slow down. Looks like a toss-up game to me. SWM Take – Slight lean Iowa
CFB – (125) MICHIGAN at (126) NORTHWESTERN 3:30 ET ESPN2
In this Big Ten confrontation of two floundering football teams, just like day, the public (betting in this case) has voted. Michigan opened as a +1 road underdog and has been flipped to a -2 point favorite. Though the Wolverines have been frustrating to their fans, at least they beat the spread sometimes, not like the Wildcats who are 2-9 ATS in Evanston off a road loss. Update – Michigan has gone ever so slightly backwards to -1.5 with 74 percent backing those funny helmets. SWM Take –Michigan covers
CFB – (139) IOWA STATE at (140) KANSAS 3:30 ET FSN Affiliates
Evidently more to choose from than what meets the eye in this Big 12 tilt of 2-6 clubs. Kansas has been lowered at home from -5.5 to -4 and in the Jayhawks favor is the fact they are 6-0 ATS after a 35 or more points rout. In looking at the numbers, whichever team that can stop the run better should have more success. Update – Iowa State has slipped yet again to -3.5 and is down to 52 percent of support from bettors. SWM Take – Lean Iowa State
CFB – (149) FLORIDA INT. at (150) OLD DOMINION 3:30 ET CSCA/ASN
Old Dominion has the same record as FIU, but is only 2-7 ATS in their first season of FBS football. Football bettors are willing to ignore this and the fact the Monarchs allow 40.7 PPG and beefed them up from -3 to -5. The kicker is the offense; ODU averages 32.6 PPG, while Florida International is at a skimpy 21 PPG. Update – The Monarchs have flown another half point higher to 5.5, though just 40 percent are riding them. It could be wise guy money; however they usually bet against favorites with terrible defenses. SWM Take – Lean Old Dominion
CFB – (163) BAYLOR at (164) OKLAHOMA 12:00 ET FS1
Once again the wagering community is not comfortable with Baylor in November and not sure about their defense. The Bears finished 1-3 ATS (includes bowl game) last year and that road loss at West Virginia raised the same questions, which helped shift Oklahoma from -4 to -5.5. However, Baylor has somewhat better defense, which could make this a tighter contest. Update – The Sooners went to -6 on Wednesday, but by Friday midday were back at -5.5. The wagering action is split down the middle. SWM Take – Baylor covers
CFB – (165) VIRGINIA at (166) FLORIDA STATE 6:30 ET ESPN
Despite remaining unbeaten, Florida State’s play has spooked those betting football that were uncomfortable backing them at -19.5 and dumped them two points even in Tallahassee. Not sure I agree with Virginia having lost three straight and 0-4 ATS in most recent games. The Cavaliers are an undesirable 2-9 ATS off an ACC road loss. Update – The number has since gone past the original starting point to -20, with 57 percent taking the Noles. SWM Take – Florida State covers
CFB – (179) GEORGIA SOUTHERN at (180) TEXAS STATE 5:00 ET W-ESPN
Georgia Southern has been in this article before and is a regular in line moves this season, being 8-1 ATS and frequently dominating the competition, winning by average of 23.9 PPG in Sun Belt Conference play. This dominance has altered this SBC showdown, with the Eagles adjusted from -10 to -11.5 on the road. Texas State will have a puncher’s chance to cover. Update – By smaller school standards, Georgia Southern is being bet like a runaway locomotive, now up to -14 and an eye-popping 95 percent of tickets flying with the Eagles. SWM Take – Lean Georgia Southern
CFB – (187) OHIO STATE at (188) MICHIGAN STATE 8:00 ET ABC *NEW* (side and total)
Michigan State is up from -2 to -3.5 and based on last year’s title game, I would surmise besides the home field, football bettors question the toughness of the Buckeyes, which is not an issue with the Spartans. Ohio State however is 8-1 SU and ATS in East Lansing. What is the bigger news in this contest is the total tumbling from 63 to 56. Both teams average 45 PPG and are 7-1 OVER on the season. The betting action has been 3-to-1 on the UNDER, which says the public though it was a bad number and jumped on it. The weather or wind is not expected to be an issue, thus the only explanation is while both will move the ball, the belief is a few more field goals than touchdowns. SWM Take – Ohio State covers and Over
CFB – (193) OREGON at (194) UTAH 10:00 ET ESPN *NEW* (side and total)
With Oregon off a big revenge game with Stanford and Utah having suffered an OT road loss at Arizona State, the Ducks being lowered from -9.5 to -8 has its merits. However, we saw the affects of no Dres Anderson in the passing game for the Utes and if by chance Oregon would jump to a 14-0 or 17-3 lead, is Utah really equipped to come back? On the same path of thinking the total also fell three points to 59.5 and one could see the Utes stepping up to keep this a lower scoring than anticipated contest. SWM Take – Lean Utah and Play Under
CFB – (197) SAN JOSE STATE at (198) FRESNO STATE 10:30 ET CBSSN
Fresno State has been stinkin’ up the joint and the action is going against them in spectacular fashion. The Bulldogs have lost three straight and San Jose State has hardly been a juggernaut with a pair of defeats. Nevertheless, Fresno State is now a single digit underdog after being a three-point favorite and the Spartans are 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of seven points or less. Update – Odd game of the week for bettors, after making San Jose State a favorite, Fresno is back to -2. Had to be important money to move the Bulldogs with 88 percent on the road team. SWM Take – San Jose State covers
Totals Talk – Just wanted to touch this subject because it is out there. This Saturday there are 15 totals that have moved 2.5 or more points since opening numbers were released. I wish I could tell there was a simple rhyme or reason like some big rain or wind storm is going across the country, but there is not. Instead, 10 games have dropped at least 2.5 points and in many cases more, while five others have dropped in similar fashion. In a few instances they are big conference clashes which would typically mean fewer points because of the intensity of which the games will be played. But we all know that is not an absolute. Obviously sportsbooks have been hit hard in one-sided wagering on totals and history tells us it will not turn out to be one-sided, but if you are a curious bettor, this is worth following, like we will.
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 26-23-1) – Colorado State, Tulsa, Georgia Southern, Duke and Auburn
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 26-23-1) –UTEP, Idaho, Washington State, Florida Int. and Vanderbilt
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Texas A&M is 0-9 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 or more yards a game the last two seasons.
CFB Totals Trend
New Mexico State is 16-3 OVER as an underdog the last two seasons.
CFB First Half Trend
Boise State is 22-4 ATS in road games versus poor rushing defenses allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards per carry.
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