Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
The usual Thursday full package with some NBA totals really trending upwards! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (233-185 L74D)
NFL – (309) BUFFALO at (310) MIAMI 8:25 ET NFLN
A number of wagering mood swings in this AFC East encounter. It started with Miami being jettisoned from -4 to -6 on Tuesday and the total went from 41 to 42.5. But when more bettors started to look more closely at the team’s offense and defense, they realized the differences were not that great and by this morning, the money was coming in on the underdog and the UNDER, with the adjusted market prices as 4 and 41. The total looks very close, but Miami since 2004 is 12-30 ATS. SWM Take – Miami covers and Lean Under
CFB – (311) EAST CAROLINA at (312) CINCINNATI 7:00 ET ESPN2
Seemingly, these AAC teams are headed in different directions with East Carolina 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games and Cincinnati 3-0 SU and ATS their last three times on the gridiron. However, the money is on the Pirates, up two points to -3, with bettors considering what is supposed to be the better team, though Cincy is +11 in head to head matchups. Update – As expected the late money has been coming in the sort of home dog (Cincy playing at Bengals Stadium while there place is being remodeled), with 45 percent backing the Bearcats. SWM Take – Lean Cincinnati
NFL – (313) SOUTHERN MISS at (314) UTSA 8:00 ET CBSSN
Why would a crummy Southern Miss team drop from +11.5 to +7 on the road in San Antonio? The Golden Eagles only average 19.4 PPG and allow 36.8 PPG. However, UTSA is one of the poorest offensive teams in the country. Yes, their 16.9 PPG is not that much worse than what Southern Miss posts, but not only are the Roadrunners 124th in the country in scoring, they are 125th in total offense at 282.1 YPG. This is 89 fewer yards that what Southern Miss averages, with their problem not being able to score when in position. If you like the home team it is far better to be giving the current points with that offense compared to double digits. SWM Take – Lean UTSA
NBA – (505) PHILADELPHIA at (506) DALLAS 8:30 ET CSN-P, FSN-SW
Gosh, who would have guessed the 76ers would be 0-7 at the point of the season; this would be like Kim Kardashian getting paid to take a naked picture of her ample booty and backside. (Oh, she just did, well than Philadelphia having this start to the season makes more sense). The Sixers are 26th in points allowed at 106.1 PPG, while Dallas is third in the NBA in scoring at 105.1 PPG. With the Mavericks not having any all-league defenders and in this situation with Philly, the total has become robust like someone’s backside mentioned in this game writeup from 207 to 210.5. While the Mavs are 12-2 OVER at home after playing consecutive games as a home favorite the last three seasons, the 76ers are 12-3 UNDER on the road when the total jumps 210. SWM Take – Lean Under (at this number)
NBA – (507) BROOKLYN at (508) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET TNT
Though sample size is small, basketball betters are pounding the total, rifling it from 205 to 210. In three road games, Brooklyn is conceding 107 PPG. With Steve Kerr the new Golden State head coach, Warriors fans are being treated to plenty of offense with the average total score of a trio of tilts 223 points. Here is what I wonder, last February when these team met in the same location, the closing total was 201.5 in a game which went easily Under, (Warriors 93-86) has that much changed to warrant this high a figure? SWM Take – Lean Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
USC is 9-1 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points a game.
NBA ATS Trend
Dallas is 0-8 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive Under’s the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend
Toronto is 10-0 OVER at home after two straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds the last two seasons.
NHL Totals Trend
Minnesota is 11-0 in home games after three or more consecutive Under’s the last two seasons.
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