Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
The busiest weekend of the season for lined games and on Friday, Western Michigan, Marshall, Arizona State, South Florida and Colorado State all had the money flowing towards them. One other contest on Friday has this and we have it covered along with all goings on for Saturday. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (260-206 L80D)
CFB – Friday (317) BALL STATE at (318) BOWLING GREEN 1:00 ET W-ESPN
Bowling Green has wrapped up the MAC East title but definitely wants to win this contest and not enter the championship game with consecutive losses. Football bettors believe they will and flew the Falcons from -8 to -10. Bowling Green is 5-1 SU in recent home games with Ball State. The Falcons are a solid 45-27 ATS the last 22 years against losing teams. Update – About 20% of sportsbooks went down to 9.5, with the rest still at 10. Bowling Green is in 59 percent of betting slips. SWM Take – Lean Bowling Green
CFB – Friday (429) AKRON at (430) KENT STATE 1:00 ET W-ESPN
Kent State only has one victory on the season, yet nobody is sold on Akron either, dumping the Zips from -4.5 to -3. Akron had lost four in a row before mauling Massachusetts 30-6, who did not have their starting quarterback. That was the Zips first spread cover since Sept. 27th, while the Golden Flashes are 4-2 against the number in recent outings. Update – This number has held except for a few books that went back to 3.5. Akron has 63 percent wagering support. SWM Take – Lean Kent State
CFB – Friday (315) VIRGINIA at (316) VIRGINIA TECH 8:00 ET ESPN *NEW*
Based on how Virginia Tech has played this season, it is little bit surprising to see them moved from +2 to -1 and eventually a Pick on Friday morning. For this rivalry, both teams need a victory to be bowl eligible and both coaches need to win, as the possibility exists one or both coaches might not be back for different reasons, with losing as a focal point. Tough call with the Hokies 12-23 ATS the past three seasons, but when the line moves in this fashion in this price range, the home team covers 70 percent of the time. SWM Take – Slight lean Virginia Tech (because they know how to win this matchup)
CFB – (369) IDAHO at (370) APPALACHIAN STATE 2:00 ET W-ESPN (side and total) *NEW*
This game will not be on many people’s betting chart, but it is on somebody’s. Appalachian State is cruising through the Sun Belt with five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS). Idaho does not figure to have much resistance which is why the Mountaineers have climbed from -16.5 to -18. App. State is also averaging 41.3 PPG in their last six outings and the Vandals have been torched for 38.2 PPG on the road leading to the total jumping three points to 66. SWM Take – Appalachian State covers and Over
CFB – (389) BAYLOR vs. (390) TEXAS TECH 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
Once again this will be a neutral site Big 12 conflict and the money is flowing like honey towards Baylor. The Bears have clawed their way from -23.5 to -25 and realistically should have no problems scoring against a Texas Tech defense which surrenders 42.1 PPG in conference play. The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more YPP in their previous game the last three seasons. Update – Like a lazy bear off a feast, this number has not moved and 82 percent are siding with Baylor. SWM Take – Baylor covers
CFB – (393) KANSAS at (394) KANSAS STATE 4:00 ET FS1
Kansas State coach Bill Snyder was no impressed with his team’s victory at West Virginia, but somebody was as the Wildcats have been chased two points higher as favorites to -28.5. Since Snyder’s third year at the Little Apple, Kansas State is 13-2 SU and against the spread versus in-state rival Kansas. Since Snyder has been at K-State, this has always been a priority game. Update – Going over four touchdowns was too rich for some sports bettors and the number is back to 27.5. Given the series history, hard to fathom 60 percent on the Jayhawks. SWM Take – Kansas State covers
CFB – (403) FLORIDA at (404) FLORIDA STATE 3:30 ET ESPN *NEW*
Incredibly, the only Power 5 team without a loss has fallen three-points as home favorite to -7.5. But let’s be honest, Florida State has been a lousy wager at 3-8 ATS and Florida has the No. 11 total defense in the country. However, at this price you have to consider this series has long been dominated by the favored team and since 2007 that squad is 6-1 ATS. SWM Take – Florida State covers
CFB – (407) UL-MONROE at (408) GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6:00 ET W-ESPN
Georgia Southern can lock up the outright Sun Belt championship in their first year in the league with a victory. The Eagles are up two points to -15 as they go for the clincher and this is not news since they have rose as a favorite in each of their last four conference games. UL-Monroe is 36-18 ATS on the SBC road. Update – A modest buyback to 14.5 with 70 percent on the running Eagles. SWM Take – Lean Georgia Southern
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CFB – (417) KENTUCKY at (418) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ESPN2
It is the Bluegrass State battle and despite Kentucky having lost five in a row (1-4 ATS), the betting public is siding with the SEC team over an ACC squad. The Wildcats have tumbled from -14 to -12.5 which is a bit of a surprise given Louisville has won and covered the last three games with relative ease. Update – The Cardinals have been creeping back up and are at -13 or -13.5 and do not see aghast this battle ends at original number. Only 43 percent however are on Louisville. SWM Take – Lean Louisville
CFB – (419) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (420) OLE MISS 3:30 ET CBS *NEW*
In the Egg Bowl, Ole Miss is being faded, looking very much like a team that has peaked in losing three of four (0-4 ATS). Mississippi State showed no signs of hangover from loss to Alabama and money is going their way, up from -1 to -2.5. The Bulldogs are barking at 4-1 ATS of late and teams that score in the 50’s are 27-13 ATS if they play the following week this season. SWM Take – Mississippi State covers
Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 32-32-1) – Texas State, App. State, Ark. State, Mich. State and Tennessee
Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 35-29-1) – Troy, Old Dominion, UNLV, Wash. State and Kansas
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Stanford is 13-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.
CFB Totals Trend
San Diego State is 10-1 UNDER this season.
CFB First Half Trend
Arkansas is 10-1 ATS versus the first half line in all games this season.
CFB 6-Point Trend
Wisconsin is 29-1 off a close win by seven points or less over a conference rival.
CFB Totals Teaser Trend
Ohio State is 22-1 OVER the teaser total as a favorite the last two seasons.
This website is monitored at the Sports Watch Monitor.
