NFLX Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
08-26-23 |
Ravens +2 v. Bucs |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-113 |
60 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on BAL So the Ravens have won 24 of their last 25 pre-season games, and if not for a late drive from an inexperienced 3rd string quarterback and a 50 yard field goal it would have been 25-0. So we have to ask ourselves what happens now? Does Harbaugh throw in the towel, rest his starters and play to lose, or does he want to go into the regular season off a "W". Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown combined to throw for 4 TDs on 16-of-22 passing last week. I am willing to bet that Harbaugh is dying to get the filthy taste of an "L" out of his mouth. Todd Bowles is 8-13 career in pre-season games, so don't expect him to be taking things seriously in the second half. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-19-23 |
Bucs v. Jets -1 |
Top |
13-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
109 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the JETS. Robert Saleh appears to take the pre-season more seriously than most head coaches. His Jets won 27-0 versus Carolina last week, and he's 6-1 in the pre-season in his career. The one loss came against Cleveland in the Hall of Fame game, and they blew a big lead late in that game. Todd Bowles does not have a reputation for taking the pre-season seriously, with a career record of 7-13. When it comes to QB depth, the Jets appear to have an edge with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle. I'll trust Saleh to field a competitive team here as he looks to establish a culture of winning. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-28-22 |
Giants v. Jets OVER 38 |
Top |
27-31 |
Win
|
100 |
85 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on Over. We wrap up the pre-season on Sunday with the Giants vs Jets. Two undefeated teams, each with solid depth at the QB position. Mike White and Chris Streveler have been great for the Jets, while Tyrod Taylor and Davis Webb have been solid for the GMEN. Last season the Jets final pre-season game was a 31-31 tie, and the Giants also played their highest scoring pre-season game in Week 3. The Giants have averaged 24 points per game in the first two weeks, while the Jets have scored exactly 24 points in both of their games so far. The total here should likely be a few points higher. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-22-22 |
Falcons v. Jets +2.5 |
Top |
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the J E T S .. JETS! JETS! JETS! Robert Saleh can't make up his mind if he's going to play his starters, but I am not bothered either way. Mike White got the majority of the snaps in the Jets win over Philly, and if it's him and Chris Streveler at QB that's plenty good enough in a home game with a head coach who has never lost a pre-season game. All Streveler did is toss a pair of TD passes on 6-of-9 passing for 69 yards against the Eagles. Oh, by the way he's Grey Cup champion, which puts him in good company with the likes of Doug Flutie, Jeff Garcia and Warren Moon. Desmond Ridder and Feleipe Franks have never experienced a real NFL game. I am gonna take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-29-19 |
Raiders v. Seahawks OVER 33 |
Top |
15-17 |
Loss |
-109 |
80 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OAK@SEA over 33. The Seahawks will host Oakland in the final game of the pre-season, and the bookmakers have set the total at just 33. There is plenty of history between these teams, as they have faced each other in the final week of the pre-season every year since 2006. Last year the Raiders won 30-19 at Seattle, and it was the fifth time in the last six years that these teams combined to score 40+ points in the final week of the pre-season. Most coaches have already packed it in by Week 4, but the numbers say that Gruden and Carroll both likely want to win this game. Gruden is an incredible 7-1 lifetime in the final week of the pre-season, while Carroll is 6-3. Oakland has a pair of QBs with starting experience in Nathan Peterman and Mike Glennon, and both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch have put up solid numbers for Seattle. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-24-19 |
Saints -125 v. Jets |
Top |
28-13 |
Win
|
100 |
127 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have looked pretty good so far this pre-season. They are 1-1 heading into Week 3 at New York, but Teddy Bridgewater had a big game in Week 1 and Taysom Hill impressed in Week 2. Sean Payton takes the pre-season more seriously than most, but that is epsecially true in Week 3. The Saints have a record of 10-3 in the third week of the pre-season under Sean Payton. The Jets are focused more on staying healthy, and Adam Gase has expressed remorse after Avery Williamson was lost for the season due to injury. Expect Gase to be very conservative with his starters for the remainder of the pre-season. Take NO. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-18-19 |
Seahawks v. Vikings -190 |
Top |
19-25 |
Win
|
100 |
152 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. Pete Carroll has a reputation as a coach that likes to win in the pre-season. He's 23-14 overall in the pre-season with the Seahawks since 2010, but a closer look reveals that he might not be all that geared up for this week's game in Minnesota. While the Seahawks have been a good bet in the pre-season under Carroll, the second week of the pre-season might be the exception. They have winning records in Week 1, Week 3 and Week 4, but since 2010 they are just 4-5 in the second week of the pre-season. Mike Zimmer doesn't like losing ..PERIOD! He's 18-4 in the pre-season as the head coach in Minnesota. The Vikings offense looked like a well oiled machine in last week's win at New Orleans. The had a combined 247 passing yards on 19-of-27 passing with three TDs and no INTs. Kirk Cousins was 4-for-4 for 65 yards and a TD. He should see a bit more time here at home versus the Seahawks. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-17-18 |
Bills v. Browns OVER 37 |
Top |
19-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
125 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BUF@CLE to go Over the total. Both the Bills and the Browns have talented young quarterbacks that are trying to establish themselves, and I expect to see plenty of offense as they meet in the second week of the pre-season. The Bills scored 23 points in a loss to Carolina in Week 1, but the most telling stat in my opinion was the fact that they called twice as many passing plays (39) as they did running plays (21). The Browns won their Week 1 game on the road at New York, and Baker Mayfield lit up the Giants for 212 yards and two TDs on 11-of-20 passing. He should have plenty of swagger in his step here at home, and I expect another big game from the rookie. Tyrod Taylor in under pressure to hold off Mayfield for the starting job, and he was pretty impressive in his own right against the Giants. He threw for 99 yards and a TD on 5-of-5 passing. Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman and AJ MacCarron all threw for over 100 yards last week. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-11-18 |
Chargers v. Cardinals -135 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
160 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. I am only betting on one pre-season game in Week 1, and it's a big play on Arizona. The Cardinals will be at home against the Chargers, and with starters expected to ride the pine, I believe the home team has a huge advantage at the quarterback position. Geno Smith and Cardale Jones are the backups for Phillip Rivers, and neither of them have proven to be NFL caliber quarterbacks. Josh Rosen is a wild card for Arizona, but veterans Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon each have plenty of experience as starters. With so many uncertainties in the pre-season, I am putting my money on what I consider to be a complete mismatch at the one position that matters most. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-27-17 |
Bears v. Titans -165 |
Top |
19-7 |
Loss |
-165 |
49 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
08-20-17 |
Saints v. Chargers -160 |
Top |
13-7 |
Loss |
-160 |
66 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the LA Chargers.
The Chargers were on the wrong side of the biggest blowout in Week 1, losing 48-17 to the Seattle Seahawks. I expect to see LA bounce back here with a win in their first game in front of a home crowd in a new city. It was the Chargers that opened the scoring last week, and Philip Rivers was surgical, throwing for 56 yards and a TD on 5-of-6 passing. Rivers and the first team offense should see more snaps here this week. The Saints have lost NINE STRAIGHT pre-season games, which says a lot about what coach Sean Payton thinks of the pre-season. Drew Brees didn't play last week, and he isn't likely going to see a lot of action this week. The majority of the snaps will go to the backups, who combined to throw for 238 yards on 25-of-36 passing in a loss to Cleveland.
Take LA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-13-17 |
Seahawks +2.5 v. Chargers |
Top |
48-17 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Chargers have spent the last several seasons struggling through an unusual amount of injuries. I don't expect coach Mike McCoy to take any risks with his starters here in the first week of pre-season. Expect the first unit to appear briefly, if at all. Pete Carroll has a different approach than most when it comes to the pre-season, and he's always been known to play his starters a little longer, going for the win. Trevone Boykin should get the bulk of the snaps at quarterback for Seattle, but he proved he was capable in last year's pre-season, when Seattle won three of four games. The Seahawks have a healthy competition at running back, with Eddie Lacy, CJ Prosise, Thomas Rawls and Alex Collins all fighting for starting jobs.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-28-16 |
Chargers v. Vikings -4 |
Top |
10-23 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings have impressed so far this pre-season, winning on the road at Cincinnati and Seattle. They will be at home in "dress rehearsal week", hosting the San Diego Chargers. Minnesota's head coach Mike Zimmer has the best pre-season record of all active NFL coaches, winning 10 of 11 games so far. He's never lost in the all important third pre-season game, and last year his team won on the road by a score of 28-14 at Dallas. Mike McCoy is just 6-8 in pre-season games in his career, and his Chargers are a mess at the moment. Teddy Bridgewater didn't take a snap last week, but he should see plenty of action against the Chargers. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill looked sharp against Seattle, throwing for 129 yards on 10-fo-17 passing. Adrian Peterson is not expected to play, but backups Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon are more than capable. Phillip Rivers is expected to start, but may play as little as one quarter. His backups haven't done much so far, combing to throw for 384 yards, no TDs and two INTs on 33-of-61 passing.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-26-16 |
Packers +2 v. 49ers |
Top |
21-10 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have been pretty cautious with Aaron Rodgers so far, but the two time MVP is expected to play for the first time this pre-season tonight in San Francisco. The 49ers defense looked great against Marc Sanchez last week, but I don't think slowing down the Packers is going to be quite as easy. San Francisco's own quarterback situation is a mess, with Blaine Gabbert appear to be at the top of their depth chart. Most NFL teams have two (if not three) quarterbacks that could easily come in and be better than any of the Niners starters. We could see Colin Kaepernick take the field tonight, and that might not be a good thin for San Francisco. He hasn't played since last November, and has had three surgeries since then. He's been dealing with a "dead arm" in training camp, but claims he's now ready to play. Kaepernick completed 5-of-13 attempts for 40 yards with no TDs in three appearances in last year's pre-season. Gabbert has connected on 10-of-19 passes for 132 yards and a TD so far this pre-season. I just don't think Chip Kelly's team has the personal to match the Packers with Aaron Rodgers and a trimmed down Eddie Lacy.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-26-16 |
Bills v. Redskins -138 |
Top |
16-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
The third week of the pre-season is known to be the most important, the one game that actually matters. This is when most coaches like to leave the starters in for a little longer, in order to get a good idea of what they have to work with. Jay Gruden has a reputation as a guy who likes to win these pre-season games, he comes into tonight's game with a 70% pre-season win percentage in his third season with the Redskins. This year's team should be even better than last year's squad that won the NFC East. Kirk Cousins is surrounded by plenty of weapons, and the addition of star CB Josh Norman should help improve the defense. Bills head coach Rex Ryan has a career record of 14-16 in the pre-season, and coming off a 21-0 win over the Giants last week, may not feel he has a lot to prove. Cousins had a huge game in "dress rehearsal" week last year, throwing for 190 yards and a TD on 20-of-27 passing as the Skins crushed Baltimore 31-13. All the signs seem to indicate that Gruden has selected this game as the one where his starters will get their reps, while the Bills might be less inclined to put their stars in harms way coming off an impressive showing last week.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-25-16 |
Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 44 |
Top |
17-27 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DAL@SEA to go UNDER the total.
The third week of the pre-season is known to be the most important, the one game that actually matters. This is when most coaches like to leave the starters in for a little longer, in order to get a good idea of what they have to work with. Pete Carroll has a reputation as a guy that covets winning pre-season games, especially in the crucial third week. Since 2012, Seattle is 4-0 in their third game of the pre-season, and in those games they held opponents to an average of just 11 points. The Cowboys are likely to be cautious to avoid injury to Tony Romo, so we should see plenty of Dak Prescott in this game. As good as Prescott has looked against backups, and vanilla schemes, he's going to have a tough time moving the ball against the toughest defenders in the league. Seattle knows what it has at quarterback, so I expect the Hawks to really focus on running the ball here. The last time these teams met in the regular season, the Seahawks won 13-12 at Dallas. They've failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and I think tonight's total is just a little too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-20-16 |
49ers v. Broncos -4 |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
85 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Both these teams were supposed to have heated battles for the starting QB position, but an injury to Colin Kaepernick has put a hold on any battle for the starters job in San Francisco. In Denver, veteran Marc Sanchez has looked great, completing 10-of-13 passes for 99 yards and a TD in a 22-0 win over the Bears last week. Trevor Siemian will start tonight, and will get a chance to show what he can do with the starting offense. Sanchez should still see plenty of snaps.
The Niners used three quarterbacks in Week 1, and the trio of Blaine Gabbert, Thad Lewis and Jeff Driskel completed less than 50% of their passes, totaling just 173 yards and a TD. They face a Denver defense that had seven sacks and an INT in the shutout win over the Bears.
Denver's third string quarterback Paxton Lynch impressed, completing 6-of-7 attempts for 74 yards. We could see more of Lynch here tonight. Denver's coach Gary Kubiak has one of the highest winning percentages in the pre-season among active NFL head coaches, and his teams are 13-4 in his last 17 pre-season games.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-18-16 |
Bears v. Patriots -3.5 |
Top |
22-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
I bet on the Patriots in their home win over New Orleans in Week 1, and here is what I said prior to the game: "The Patriots on the other hand will desperately need to get Jimmy Garoppolo up to speed before the season starts. With Tom Brady set to serve a four game suspension for his role in the Deflate-Gate controversy, Jimmy G will be their man for the first four weeks. More playing time for Garoppolo might not be that big of an advantage in comparison to the Saints second and third string QBs, but I'm expecting New England's first team offense to see significantly more time on the field. After all, it's the starters that he needs to develop chemistry with."
They host the Bears in Week 2, and I expect to see plenty more of the Jimmy G. He hasn't had many opportunities to play during the regular season, but he has looked sharp in past pre-season games. In 2014 he completed 46-of-79 passes for 618 yards, five TDs and one INT. He would finish the 2014 pre-season with a 99.0 passer rating. We could see Tom Brady get a little bit of work, just to keep the rust off while he serves his suspension.
The Bears offense failed to score a single point in Week 1, as backup QBs Connor Shaw and Brian Hoyer both played terribly. We aren't likely to see much of Jay Cutler here, leaving the two struggling backups to fight for the number two spot on the depth chart.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-11-16 |
Saints v. Patriots -3 |
Top |
22-34 |
Win
|
100 |
109 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots face the Saints in the first week of the pre-season Thursday night, and these two teams are in very different situations. New Orleans will come into the season with veteran quarterback Drew Brees as it's undisputed starter, which means Brees has nothing to prove. It's expected that he will see limited snaps here in New England, and he didn't play at all in the first game of last year's pre-season.
The Patriots on the other hand will desperately need to get Jimmy Garoppolo up to speed before the season starts. With Tom Brady set to serve a four game suspension for his role in the Deflate-Gate controversy, Jimmy G will be their man for the first four weeks. More playing time for Garoppolo might not be that big of an advantage in comparison to the Saints second and third string QBs, but I'm expecting New England's first team offense to see significantly more time on the field. After all, it's the starters that he needs to develop chemistry with.
Garoppolo hasn't had many opportunities to play during the regular season, but he has looked sharp in past pre-season games. In 2014 he completed 46-of-79 passes for 618 yards, five TDs and one INT. He would finish the 2014 pre-season with a 99.0 passer rating. He's facing a Saints defense that ranked dead last in the NFL last season, allowing 29.8 points per game.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-03-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets OVER 44 |
Top |
18-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
60 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go OVER the total.
The Eagles offense has been a lighting up opposing defenses this pre-season, which really shouldn't come as a surprise. Chip Kelly's team averaged well over 30 points per game while going 2-2 in last year's pre-season. As impressive as their offense has been, the defense hasn't been all that stellar. Last week in Green Bay the Packers played their third and fourth string quarterbacks, and they threw for 399 yards and three TDs.
This week we should see plenty of playing time for backup quarterbacks, but the Jets have one of the league's better backups in Matt Flynn. The former Green Bay quarterback has put up impressive numbers over his career in these situations, and he needs to have a good game tonight if he hopes to secure a roster spot.
Kelly's system is designed to move the ball quickly, without taking much time off the clock. It doesn't matter whether it's practice, pre-season, regular season or the playoffs, everything is at full speed. They beat the Ravens by a score of 40-17 in Week 2, without scoring a single passing TD. They scored 37 points in a win over the Jets in their final game of last year's pre-season, and I expect another high scoring game here tonight.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-30-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders |
Top |
30-23 |
Loss |
-102 |
44 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 of the pre-season on Sunday, and this is a game that should mean a lot more to the home team. The Raiders are a young team that hasn't had a lot of success over the last decade, and a win in front of the home fans (even if it's the pre-season) would be a big positive.
Jack Del Rio is in his first year as coach of the Raiders, and he brings a reputation of a guy who plays to win at all times. He's got a record of 22-16 in pre-season games going back to 2003.
Bruce Arians and the Cardinals likely don't feel they have anything to prove. The Cardinals are 0-2 so far this year, and 4-6 in the pre-season since Arians took over in 2013. Carson Palmer missed most of last season with an injury, so it would seem reckless to put him in harms way for an extended period of time. He threw for 88 yards and a TD on 3-of-7 passing last week in a loss to the Chargers. He was also sacked twice, and that's something the Cardinals don't need to see here in the pre-season.
The Cardinals backup quarterbacks have really struggled, especially Logan Thomas who was 0-for-4 last week, and 9-for-15 for 107 yards and an INT in Week 1.
Take OAK.
GL.
Jesse Schule
|
08-28-15 |
Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 43 |
Top |
10-34 |
Win
|
100 |
88 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Titans offense has looked pretty good so far in the pre-season, but I am not as optimistic about their defense. They are in Kansas City in Week 3, in a game that should see both teams starters play significant minutes.
Marcus Mariota had a terrible start, turning the ball over twice in a 31-24 loss to the Falcons in Week 1. He bounced back with a better performance last week, throwing for 59 yards on 5-of-8 passing, Zack Mettenberger has been solid in both games, throwing for over 200 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT.
The Chiefs made headlines last season as quarterback Alex Smith went the entire year without throwing a single TD pass to a wide receiver. The addition of Jeremy Maclin should change that, and the pair hooked up for a three yard strike in the first quarter of last week's win over the Seahawks. Smith and backup Chase Daniel should have little trouble moving the ball against a Titans defense than ranked 27th in the NFL last season.
Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over the total.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44.5 |
Top |
17-40 |
Win
|
100 |
123 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAL@PHI to go OVER the total.
The Eagles scored 36 points in a blowout win over the Colts in Week 1. It wasn't much of a surprise when you consider the Eagles were just 2-2 in last year's pre-season, winning both of their home games. They scored more than their fair share of points, averaging just short of 33 points per game.
The Ravens also put up a big number in their pre-season opener, defeating the Saints by a score of 30-27. Joe Flacco completed five of six pass attempts for 33 yards with no TDs and no INTs. He should see a little more time here in the second week of pre-season play.
Sam Bradford did not play on Week 1, but we should see him here in tonight's game. The word out of training camp is that Bradford has been quite impressive, but Mark Sanchez has also been doing his best to create a quarterback controversy. Sanchez stole the show completing 132 of 184 pass attempts for 11 TDs and just one interception in practices prior to last week's game.
Kelly's coaching philosophy is that he does everything at "full speed", and it doesn't matter if it's practice, pre-season or regular season. We should expect another high scoring affair in Philly tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-24-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Arizona Cardinals -1 |
Top |
19-13 |
Loss |
-125 |
136 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Bengals are winless so far in the pre-season, and they have a tough road game in Week 3 in Arizona. The Cardinals have looked very good, spanking Houston in Week 1, and losing by two points on the road in Week 2. It was a last second touchdown engineered by Teddy Bridgewater that sealed their fate last week, in a game that they looked like they were going to win.
The Bengals gave up 41 points in a loss to the Chiefs in Week 1, and then fumbled the ball four times in a loss to the Jets last week. Andy Dalton was a perfect 8-for-8 for 144 yards and a touchown, but he faces Arizona's skilled defense tonight, and if he doesn't get picked off at least once .. I'd be shocked.
The Bengals have lost six of seven of their last 10 road games, regular season and pre-season combined. I think the bookmakers are being awful generous here giving us the home team as a favorite of less than three points.
Take Arizona.
Gl,
Jesse Schule
|
08-23-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Buffalo Bills -165 |
Top |
27-14 |
Loss |
-165 |
109 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills have lost 2-of-3 in the pre-season so far, but they have looked pretty decent even in their losses. They have conceded fewer than 20 points in all three games so far, and here in Week 3 the first team defense should see plenty of time on the field.
E.J. Manuel has been pretty average so far, and he's still looking for his first touchdown pass of the pre-season. He'll spend more time on the field today, and it looks like Sammy Watkins should play despite taking a bit of a knock against the Steelers. The Bills will likely continue to rely heavily on their power-running game, which looked good last week gaining 150 yards on 38 carries.
Tampa hasn't impressed, and playing more of their starters is unlikely to make much of a difference. They don't really have a quarterback with the talent to be a starter on most teams, and anyone who thinks Josh McCown can be as good as he was in Chicago, should take a look at the tools he will have at his disposal in Tampa, and see how they stack up to Chicago's offense.
I think the Bills will put on a show for the home crowd here in Buffalo Saturday.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Detroit Lions -170 |
Top |
12-13 |
Win
|
100 |
88 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on the Detroit Lions.
For years the Jaguars haven been the whipping boys of the NFL, by far the worst team of the current generation. With Blake Bortles though, there is hope for the future, and they should win a few more games in 2014.
Still, this is the third week of the pre-season, which means the starters are expected to see plenty of snaps. That doesn't bode well for a weak Jacksonville defense, that will have to contend with the Lions dynamic offense. To say that Matthew Stafford looked sharp last week against the Raiders, would be putting it lightly. He completed 8-of-10 attempts for 88 yards and a pair of TDs.
Surprisingly, backup QB Dan Orlovsky has also had a fantastic pre-season, moving the ball with relative ease. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, and the Lions would be a double digit favorite if this was the real deal. I'm expecting to see the home team put on a show in the Motor City.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-21-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 |
Top |
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
64 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles are 0-2 so far in the pre-season, despite the fact that they've scored an awful lot of points (31.5 per game). They host the Steelers tonight, and Pittsburgh's camp has been rocked by a scandal involving running backs LeGarrette Blount and Le'Veon Bell. The status of both players is in question after being arrested for possession of marijuana just hours before the team's flight to Philly.
Big Ben looked sharp in last week's win over Buffalo, but his backups combined to throw for 100 yards on 9-of-18 passing, getting picked off twice with no TDs. This Pittsburgh offense is likely to struggle to keep pace with the high octane attack of the Eagles.
Philly's quarterbacks have all impressed, even Mark Sanchez has a couple of touchdown passes under his belt. It's the running game that could be the deciding factor though, as this is an area where the Steelers have looked vulnerable. The Bills and the Giants combined to run for 321 yards on Pittsburgh's defense the last two weeks.
Shady McCoy could be in for a big night.
Take Philly.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-18-14 |
Cleveland Browns v. Washington Redskins OVER 41 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 32 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on CLE@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Redskins host the Browns on Monday Night Football, and everyone is looking forward to seeing Johnny Manziel in just his second pre-season game. Browns rookie head coach Mike Pettine has already assured fans that Manziel will see time with the first team offense: "Johnny's going to get reps with the ones. Just to me, the factor of starting the game I think is a little bit overblown in this situation because we're going to try to balance the reps with the ones, It's a little overrated who trots out there for the first time."
The Redskins will also showcase more of their starters in this game, most notably their star wideouts Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. Backup quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins impressed in the win over New England, throwing for a combined 205 yards and a pair of TDs. They will take a back seat to Robert Griffin tonight, at least for most of the first half.
We have seen a trend of high scoring games in this pre-season, and tonight's game should be another shootout. Both teams are excited about their respective offenses, and with the aid of the flag happy officials, there should be no shortage of points.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-16-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Minnesota Vikings -160 |
Top |
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikes won at home in Week 1, defeating the Oakland Raiders by a score of 10-6. Their defense held the visitors scoreless until late in the fourth quarter, and limited Oakland to just 182 yards passing, with one interception.
Minnesota has a quarterback controversy raging, with Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel competing for the starters job. Christian Ponder is also in the mix, but he's clearly #3 on the depth chart.
The Vikes host Arizona tonight, and the Cardinals picked apart a struggling Texans team in Week 1. It's tough to read to much into Arizona's 32-0 win, as their opponent didn't appear to be ready to compete. Unlike the Vikings, Arizona knows Carson Palmer will be the starter, and that leaves Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas to battle for the backup role. I am not a fan of either quarterback, and I would be particularly concerned about Thomas, who threw and awful lot of INTs in college.
I think ultimately this game is going to mean more to the Vikings at home, and I expect Mike Zimmer to play his starters a little more than the visitors will. That combined with the fact that I think Minnesota's second and third string quarterbacks are superior to Arizona's, leads me to believe Minnesota will win this game.
Take MINNY.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-16-14 |
NY Giants v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 41 |
Top |
27-26 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on NYG@IND to go OVER the total.
The Colts and the Giants will meet in Indianapolis tonight, and these are two teams that are known more for offensive prowess rather than solid defense. The Giants come in with a perfect 2-0 record, while the Colts lost to the Jets in Week 1.
We didn't see a lot of Andrew Luck in New York, but we should expect the young quarterback to make more of an impact on this game. The Colts played the Giants in the second week of last pre-season, and Luck had the bulk of the snaps, tossing a pair of TD passes.
Eli only attempted two passes in the win at Pittsburgh last week, but I expect to see the Giants play their starters a little more here tonight. They have had two games to shake off the rust, and should be ready to test drive the first team offense.
So far we've seen the officials tossing a lot of flags, and that might be one reason why all four games went over the total last night. I'm expecting to see these teams air it out, and we should see plenty of points. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-15-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Seattle Seahawks -6 |
Top |
14-41 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Over the last two years, we've seen Pete Caroll's Seahawks go undefeated in the pre-season two years in row, before losing to Denver last week. They looked as if they would score the go-ahead touchdown in the dying minutes, but on 3rd and 3 on Denver's 3 yard line, Terrelle Pryor threw an interception, and the Broncos were able to run out the clock.
This is a team that that doesn't like losing, regardless if it is just the pre-season, and I expect to see Seattle lay the smack down on the visiting Chargers tonight. Pryor and Tavaris Jackson continue to battle for the job backing up Russell Wilson. Pryor got the bulk of the snaps last week, and he moved the ball well until the costly interception. He completed 9-of-16 attempts for 137 yards.
The Chargers had their way with the Cowboys at home last week, but they didn't have to face Tony Romo, and the Dallas backups only managed to throw for 182 yards between the three of them. San Diego's defense will face a much tougher test here in tonight's game, and I don't like their chances of slowing the Super Bowl champs, with the 13th man behind them.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +1 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
16-21 |
Loss |
-100 |
100 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
There are those who might think that Denver will seek to avenge their loss to Seattle in the Superbowl, but I am not buying it. After all, a pre-season win versus Seattle means absolutely nothing in the big picture of things, and this Denver team simply has too much too lose. Seattle didn't just dominate the Broncos in the Superbowl last year, they also hammered Denver in the pre-season in both 2013, and 2012. Both of those games were decided by 20+ points, and aside from the loss on the scoreboard, Denver also suffered a rash of key injuries in each of those games. John Fox should be mindful of history, and his chief concern tonight should be the health of his players.
We know that Pete Carroll treats the pre-season very seriously, and that's evidenced by the fact that Seattle is 8-0 under Carroll the last two years. He has the will to win, and all the tools at his disposal to keep that trend alive here this year. With Tavaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor backing up Russell Wilson, they have plenty of depth at the quarterback position, so their offense should be in good hands during the exhibition season.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-24-13 |
Philadelphia Eagles -200 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Top |
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
If you are a believer in coach Chip Kelly, you have to think that the Eagles are going to get better every week as they learn more about the new coach's system. If you aren't a believer, then you should probably go look at some tape of the Oregon Ducks over the past decade.
The Jags are without any shadow of a doubt the worst team in football, tied with Kansas City with a 2-14 record last season. The Chiefs have taken steps to make improvements bringing in Alex Smith and Andy Reid, but the Jags have done very little to give fans reason for optimism.
Blaine Gabbert has been named the starting quarterback, not because of his impressive play, but because Chad Henne and Mike Kafka haven't been any better.
Gabbert won't see action tonight, as he sits with a thumb injury. Henne will likely get the bulk of the snaps, but he was terrible last week completing 4-of-10 passes and getting picked off.
How bad is the Jags defense? Well any team that gives up 400 yards to Mark Sanchez and the Jets surely has some concerns one the defensive side of the ball.
The Jags have been blown out in each of their first two games, and I see no reason to expect them to be more competitive tonight.
Take Philly.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-23-13 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 2* play on SEA@GB to go UNDER.
We all remember last year's Monday night debacle, when replacement referees botched the call on the final play of the game ruling that the Seahawks scored a touchdown on a hail mary pass to Golden Tate in the endzone.
There was something else about that game that has stuck in my memory, neither team was able to move the ball. Through the first three quarters both teams combined for a total of just 13 points. They scored 13 more in the fourth quarter, but seven of those should never have counted.
The Packers and their fans surely haven't forgotten about last season's bitter Monday night defeat. The last thing anyone in Green Bay wants to see is the Seahawks come to town and embarrass their beloved Packers.
We know that Pete Carroll plays to win in the pre-season, and we've seen his Seahawks win six in row over the past two seasons, blowing out the opposition by double digits in each of those victories.
When it comes to the third week of pre-season play though, Mike McCarthy also likes to play for keeps, as the Packers are 8-2 ATS in Week 3 over the past 10 seasons.
The Pack is likely to focus heavily on running the ball, with a raging battle between Eddy Lacy and DuJuan Harris.
After two weeks of exhibition games, Seattle's defense has allowed an average of 10 points per game, while Green Bay's defense has allowed an average of just 12 points per game.
I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle here, resulting in a close low scoring affair.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
08-22-13 |
New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions -1 |
Top |
9-40 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 54 m |
Show
|
Traditionally, Bill Belichick hasn't made winning in the pre-season a priority, and his career win/loss record sits barely above .500.
The Patriots come into tonight's game with a chance to move to 3-0 after three weeks of exhibition play for the first time in 10 years.
Jim Schwartz's Lions though should be playing for keeps at home tonight. Schwartz owns a stellar 12-4 record in pre-season games.
The Patriots have looked awfully good so far, while the opposite can be said about the lions. While this might be alarming to some, I'm expecting to see Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and Matthew Stafford to play a much greater roll on offense in this game.
A poor showing from the Lions defense in the first two weeks of the exhibition season has prompted Detroit to bring in veterans Rashean Mathis and Rocky McIntosh.
I expect to see both teams put a few points on the board, but the Lions need this win a lot more than New England does, so expect the home team to come out on top.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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