NCAA Basketball Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 21 m |
Show
|
These teams have gone 9-1 to the under combined in this tournament. UConn matches up well against this Purdue team. Also being the championship game nerves could take over which should help the under.
|
04-06-24 |
Alabama v. Connecticut UNDER 161 |
|
72-86 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 4 m |
Show
|
UConn unders have been great for us in this tournament. The more games played the frequency of tired legs show up. Ill was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. Alabama is in the same boat. UConn is the defensive jug. Look for them to keep this total under.
|
03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut UNDER 155.5 |
Top |
52-77 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 37 m |
Show
|
I get that Ill is a high powered offense, but this UConn team is a different animal. UConn is the 6th rated defense in the country. They also run a slow tempo. UConn should keep the pace. Ill will try to keep up offensively but won't. Take the under.
|
03-29-24 |
Creighton v. Tennessee OVER 143.5 |
Top |
75-82 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 45 m |
Show
|
We cashed a ticket last week with Tenn under. As good of defense Tenn has Creighton should still be able to score. They shoot a lot of 3s. Tenn will have to keep up. Both teams should flirt with 80.
|
03-28-24 |
Illinois v. Iowa State UNDER 146.5 |
|
72-69 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 3 m |
Show
|
These teams don't have much history but their L2 went under. #1 offense vs one of the better defenses. Defense travels. Illinois will have to rely on the 3 and I don't think they get opportunities to convert. Iowa St defense gets stronger as the game goes on. This will be a dog fight that stays under this total.
|
03-24-24 |
Clemson v. Baylor -4.5 |
Top |
72-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
Clemson had a big 1R win against NM but now they are playing a stronger team. Baylor is the real deal and they matchup extremely well against this Clemson defense. Clemson wasn't good down the stretch only going 2-3 their L5 and losses to some bad teams. This step up in competition will be hard for Clemson. Baylor covers.
|
03-23-24 |
Texas v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 |
|
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 22 m |
Show
|
The public is split but we're seeing this total drop with sharp backing. Texas trends to the over, but Tennessee is an under team and should control the pace. Both teams are coming off blowout wins. On a neutral court that situation is 33-20 this season. Texas lives and dies by the 3 and Tennessee doesn't allow you to get the looks. Tennessee will flirt with the 70s. I think Texas has trouble getting there. Take the under.
|
03-23-24 |
Oakland v. NC State -6.5 |
Top |
73-76 |
Loss |
-109 |
21 h 59 m |
Show
|
Oakland is the lower seed after an upset. NC State is in the same situation. Both teams are rolling. NC St has played the better teams and it has shown with experience these power conference teams crush the mids. It's a good story, but it's over for Oakland.
|
03-22-24 |
Colgate v. Baylor -14 |
|
67-92 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
Colgate is good in a bad conference. Baylor is good in a good conference. Baylor is comfortable as a favorite. Colgate hasn't been a dog in a while, but when they were they only cashed at 21%. Baylor should choose their score.
|
03-21-24 |
Drake -115 v. Washington State |
Top |
61-66 |
Loss |
-115 |
24 h 8 m |
Show
|
Dog to favorite. Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in this tournament. They don't turn the ball over and they take good shots offensively. Drake matches up well. They should be able to make their 3s. DeVries is the best player on the court. Look for him to get Drake to the second round.
|
03-21-24 |
McNeese State v. Gonzaga -6.5 |
|
65-86 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 54 m |
Show
|
Fade the trendy dog. I get the McNeese love but this Gonzaga team is on another level. The biggest difference here is free throws. I won't back a bad FT shooting. McNeese is that. Zags don't give you many chances to get to the line. Gonzaga is also the better rebounding team. McNeese had a weak conference and that has shown in the big lines they have against in conference opponents. They'll be uncomfortable playing as a dog. Take the Zags.
|
03-20-24 |
St. Joe's v. Seton Hall -7.5 |
|
72-75 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 19 m |
Show
|
3pts should be the difference. The Hawks won't be able to slow down SH.
|
03-19-24 |
Boston College v. Providence OVER 137 |
Top |
62-57 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 21 m |
Show
|
We've seen this total rise. Both teams shoot volume and both let you shoot. Both teams also rebound well. BC trends to the over this season, but both teams should put up points. The way the spread is moving it's also a possibility we'll see OT. Expect both teams to score in the 70s and go over this total.
|
03-17-24 |
Temple v. UABĀ -7 |
|
69-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
The public is split, but the sharps love UAB. These teams played a little over a week ago at Temple and UAB crushed them. I expect the same here.
|
03-16-24 |
UTEP v. Western Kentucky -3.5 |
Top |
71-78 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 7 m |
Show
|
WKU has dominated this series winning 8 of the L10. UTEP played 2 close games the past 2 days while WKU cruised to victory and was able to rest starters. WKU should have no trouble covering this small number.
|
03-15-24 |
Wisconsin -3 v. Northwestern |
|
70-61 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. The public is torn, but sharp money is backing Wisco. This number will move. Wisco has dominated this team going 8-2 their L10 SU. Wisco won in January when these teams faced off and covered a stronger -7 at home. Wisconsin is the better team and should cover this small number.
|
03-15-24 |
East Carolina v. South Florida -6.5 |
|
59-81 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 12 m |
Show
|
SFU has 9 of it's L10 while covering 7-2-1. ECU are losers of 5 of their L6. They got a win and cover in round 1. Now the competition steps up a notch. SFU plays great in conference. Take the favorite in this matinee matchup.
|
03-14-24 |
Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -4.5 |
Top |
71-80 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
Both teams are average on the road. A&M has gotten healthy and now they're playing well. Miss is 1-4 their L5. Against common opponents A&M has the edge. A&M beat Miss on their home court by 26 on March 9th. Miss can't make enough adjustments. We'll take the favorite.
|
03-13-24 |
Kansas State v. Texas -4.5 |
|
78-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
Texas has won the L2 in the series. They didn't cover the prior spread, but the line was -8.5. KState is only 4-6 their L10. They're also the worse road team. Texas matches up well defensively. Texas should be able to make their 3s and cover this number.
|
03-12-24 |
Bryant v. UMass Lowell -5.5 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 18 m |
Show
|
UMass is the better rebounding team. UMass won and covered the L4 in this series. You can't shoot 3s against UMass and Bryant can't make them anyway. UMass gets to the line and makes their FTs. UMass plays well on neutral and as a neutral favorite. They also play up to good teams. They're 2-0 ATS vs Bryant this season.
|
03-10-24 |
Maryland v. Penn State -113 |
Top |
69-85 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
The last time these teams played PSU took the Terps to OT in Maryland. Terps are only 3-7 their L10 games while PSU has been a covering machine going 7-2-1 ATS their L10.
|
03-09-24 |
Marquette -150 v. Xavier |
Top |
86-80 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
This opening line was an overreaction to Kolek being out. Xavier hasn't played well as of late. Marquette is still the better team. The value is with Marquette.
|
03-07-24 |
Marist v. Quinnipiac -3.5 |
|
64-73 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 20 m |
Show
|
Motivation is on the side of the Bobcats. Quinn can clinch a share of the MAAC regular season in this final game of the regular season. Quinn won in Marist by 11 back in January. Quinn is the best scoring offense in the MAAC. They also matchup extremely well defensively with Marist. Quinn is the better rebounding team and more importantly they make their 3s.
|
03-06-24 |
Fordham v. Massachusetts -10 |
Top |
64-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 43 m |
Show
|
Mass is a covering machine. Fordham will have trouble scoring against Mass. Mass takes and makes a lot of shots which should give them the opportunity to cover this big number. Fordham has trouble on the road. Mass is 12-3 at home. Mass plays well in conference and against common opponents Mass has a 5 game cushion.
|
03-05-24 |
Virginia Tech -6 v. Louisville |
|
80-64 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 13 m |
Show
|
VT has won the L3 in this series. Louisville covered the last time they played but that was in early December. Louisville is 0-5 ATS their L5. Neither team is playing for much, but if VT can win out and make it far in the conference tournament they have a longshot at the big dance. VT is stronger on both sides of the ball and should be able to cover this number.
|
03-05-24 |
Duquesne v. VCU -5 |
Top |
69-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a revenge game. VCU lost at Duquesne in early January. Duquesne has been good as of late but they've had their troubles on the road. VCU has a great defense. The difference here is VCU's 3pt shooting. Duquesne is average in conference where VCU is one of the stronger in conference teams. Look for VCU to get it done at the Seigel Center.
|
03-04-24 |
North Carolina Central -4 v. Morgan State |
Top |
79-88 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 48 m |
Show
|
This is a revenge game. Morgan St took down NCCU in OT the last time they played. NCCU is clearly the better team. They're one of the better road teams in CBB. Morgan doesn't play particularly well at home. They're 1-4 their L5 and don't play well in conference. Against common opponents this season NCCU is 6 games better and went 13-3 ATS in those games. NCCU is a great covering team in general.
|
03-03-24 |
Bradley v. Drake -4 |
Top |
66-74 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
I'll give Bradley credit where it's deserved. They are one of the better road teams in CBB. But they're up against a Drake team that doesn't lose at home. Drake has won and covered the L2 in the series most recently as a 4 point dog at Bradley.
|
03-03-24 |
Iona v. Marist -155 |
Top |
71-64 |
Loss |
-155 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
Marist plays well at home and as a favorite. The last time these teams played Marist won outright as a 7.5 point dog. Now this series moves to McCann. We'll take the ML as a safety net.
|
03-02-24 |
Arkansas v. Kentucky -13.5 |
Top |
102-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
Kentucky has the better recent form winning 4 of their L5. They've also covered 4 of 5 in that time. These teams faced off earlier at Arkansas and they handled business. I expect the same at home.
|
03-01-24 |
Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -6.5 |
Top |
57-80 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 1 m |
Show
|
Both of these teams are good. It should be a great game to watch. App St has covered the L4 in this series. Both teams are on lengthy winning streaks. The difference here is App St play at home. They've gone perfect on their home court They're used to covering the big numbers. App St matches up well offensively and they have the stronger defense. They played late January and App St covered -9 with cushion.
|
02-29-24 |
New Mexico State v. Liberty -13 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 14 m |
Show
|
NMSU is brutal on the road. Not only do they lose, they don't cover either. NMSU hasn't won a game since Feb 3. Liberty is the superior defense and should match up well. They should also be able to hit 3s with consistency.
|
02-28-24 |
Lafayette v. Navy -145 |
|
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
Lafayette is 1-4 their L5. They don't play well on the road. Navy also has the revenge angle here. Navy doesn't turn the ball over much and they rebound well. They should get plenty of opportunities to score as the better offensive team.
|
02-27-24 |
Georgetown v. Villanova -15.5 |
|
47-75 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 47 m |
Show
|
Villanova is the better and hotter team. Georgetown is awful at home, in conference, and recent form. Villanova is looking for a tournament birth and a dominant win here will show the committee they're serious after getting crushed by UConn.
|
02-26-24 |
Drexel v. Delaware -125 |
Top |
70-60 |
Loss |
-125 |
21 h 26 m |
Show
|
Drexel is 1-7 ATS this season when playing a team with a winning record. Drexel is not a great road team. Both teams should be rested. Fortunately Delaware benefits from the rest.
|
02-25-24 |
Marist v. St. Peter's -145 |
Top |
60-69 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. St. Peter's is the better rebounding team and they make free throws.
|
02-24-24 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Le Moyne -150 |
Top |
68-58 |
Loss |
-150 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
When they played in January this was my GOTY. It was an easy winner. Now they head to Le Moyne. We have line movement in our favor. Le Moyne plays great at home. They have recently been the better team overall going 3-2 their L5. Le Moyne plays great off road games with a mark of 11-4 ATS after a road game.
|
02-21-24 |
Murray State v. Southern Illinois -4.5 |
|
68-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 52 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. SIU is the better team. They have a better record and are better ATS. They play well at home. They just beat a good Sycamores team at home as a 5 point dog. They've won the L4 in the series and has gone 3-1 ATS in that time frame.
|
02-21-24 |
Boston University v. American -4.5 |
Top |
67-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor in a game that seems to be low bet. Boston U is not good off a win going 1-9 ATS after a win. American is a good home team. BU has their problems on the road. American is the better in conference team as well. Against common opponents this season American has a 3 game edge.
|
02-20-24 |
San Francisco v. St. Mary's -6.5 |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 9 m |
Show
|
As hot as SF has been St. Mary's has been hotter winning their L10 and covering 8 of those. St. Mary's has dominated this series winning 9 of the L10 in the series. St. Mary's plays well at home and hasn't lost in conference.
|
02-19-24 |
Morgan State v. Delaware State -5.5 |
Top |
58-80 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 35 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. DSU has covered 6 of the L7 in the series.
|
02-18-24 |
Rutgers v. Minnesota -4 |
|
70-81 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
Gophers are 10-1 this season as a home favorite. They're also 11-2 ATS in conference games this season. Rutgers has had trouble on the road.
|
02-17-24 |
Stanford v. Washington State -7.5 |
Top |
59-72 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 10 m |
Show
|
WSU has won the L4 in this series including a 89-75 win in Stanford a month ago. WSU defends their home court well going 12-1 at Friel. WSU has won their L6 while covering 5 of those. Both teams like to shoot the 3. WSU is the better team defending it. WSU is also the better team playing in conference.
|
02-17-24 |
Stonehill v. Le Moyne -9 |
|
67-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. These teams faced off in Stonehill where Le Moyne cruised to an 88-57 win. Stonehill lost its L3 and have no wins away from home (5-12 ATS 0-17 SU).
|
02-16-24 |
Harvard v. Cornell -8.5 |
|
62-75 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 27 m |
Show
|
Cornell is unbeaten at home. Cornell is better on both sides of the ball. We have the KP edge.
|
02-14-24 |
Massachusetts v. Richmond -3.5 |
|
69-59 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 17 m |
Show
|
Richmond is 10-1 ATS as a favorite. They're 11-1 ATS at Robins. They're also great in conference going 9-1 ATS. We have the KP edge.
|
02-14-24 |
Jacksonville v. Kennesaw State -5.5 |
Top |
61-66 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 41 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. This line jumps out to me because a team on a 7 game losing streak is favorite. Jacksonville has trouble on the road.
|
02-13-24 |
Michigan v. Illinois -15.5 |
Top |
68-97 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 7 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. Illinois is coming off a road loss but heads home where they've been amazing. Illinois has won the L7 in this series. Illinois offense matches up really well against this Michigan defense.
|
02-12-24 |
West Virginia v. TCU -12.5 |
|
65-81 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 25 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor.
|
02-12-24 |
Texas Southern v. Bethune-Cookman -1 |
Top |
79-83 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 31 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. Bethune plays well at home and as a favorite.
|
02-12-24 |
Alabama State v. Southern -4.5 |
|
62-73 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. Both teams are strong defensively but Southern is the superior offensive team.
|
02-11-24 |
Seton Hall v. Villanova -5 |
Top |
54-80 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. SH doesn't cover on the road. Nova is comfortable in this spot. Villanova has dominated the series winning 8 of the L10.
|
02-10-24 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Central Connecticut State -7.5 |
|
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 38 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. CCSU has won and covered 4 of the L4 in this series. We have the KP edge.
|
02-07-24 |
USC Upstate v. Longwood -8 |
|
69-64 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 11 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor and good betting splits. Longwood plays well at home. SCUS is not a good team but especially has trouble on the road. KP has Longwood ranked much higher.
|
02-06-24 |
Iowa State v. Texas -130 |
|
70-65 |
Loss |
-130 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
We have a home favorite against a ranked dog. This is one of my favorite systems. We also have the KP edge.
|
02-06-24 |
Northern Illinois v. Miami-OH -5.5 |
Top |
62-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 24 m |
Show
|
N Ill. is 1-8 ATS against Conference opponents. Mi Ohio plays well at home averaging 4+ PPG, especially as a home favorite. They beat up on bad teams and that's what we'll expect here. Mi Ohio's offense matches up well against N Ill defense.
|
02-05-24 |
Northwestern State v. Nicholls State -6.5 |
Top |
66-73 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is the contrarian side but we're seeing this line move to 7.5 at some books. NWST is a horrible road team. Nich has won and covered their L3. They play well at home and in conference. They're also 4-1 their L5 games. Nich should win this game with their 3 pt shooting and the ability to defend it.
|
02-04-24 |
IUPU-Indianapolis v. Wisc-Milwaukee -15.5 |
|
67-87 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 18 m |
Show
|
The public is split but sharp money is backing UW Mil. IUPUI has not played well especially on the road. They also have trouble in conference. Mil has fared much better against common opponents this season. IUPUI is one of the worst defenses in CBB. Mil should do as they please.
|
02-03-24 |
Presbyterian v. High Point -15.5 |
|
68-78 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 36 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. High Point is a really good team and is #1 in the Big South. Presbyterian is under .500 and covers at an average rate. Unfortunately for Pres they go into a HPU home court that hasn't seen a defeat. HPU has won their L11. HPU is undefeated in conference and covers at a positive rate.
|
02-03-24 |
Houston Christian v. Nicholls State -9.5 |
|
73-83 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 0 m |
Show
|
Nicholls is an average team but they're playing a bad opponent. HCU is not a good team. Especially on the road. Nicholls is returning home from a road trip. They only have one loss at home.
|
02-02-24 |
Princeton v. Yale -155 |
|
64-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
Yale has won 6 straight. We have line movement in our favor on a fishy line. Yale is the stronger defense and rebounding team
|
02-02-24 |
St Bonaventure v. Dayton -7 |
Top |
71-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 46 m |
Show
|
This line is already starting to move. Dayton is the better team. They play great at home and in conference. Dayton is one of the best offensive FG shooting teams in college. They also defend it well. Bonnies are going to have trouble scoring.
|
02-01-24 |
Idaho State v. Northern Colorado -9.5 |
Top |
86-91 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 33 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. UNCO is the better team. They're dominant at home. They've covered their L3. ISU is playing their 3rd consecutive road game and doesn't play well away from home. UNCO is the higher ranked team on KP.
|
01-31-24 |
Northern Iowa v. Bradley -6.5 |
|
69-85 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 4 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. Bradley has won 5 of the L6 in the series. Bradley is better on both sides of the ball especially offensive. KP has Bradley ranked in the Top 75. NIU is outside of the top 100.
|
01-30-24 |
Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan -3.5 |
Top |
77-84 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 44 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. CMU has the better record, they play great at home. They've covered 6 of their L7. NIU has failed to cover in their L9 games. CMU is the higher rated team on KP.
|
01-29-24 |
North Carolina Central -1 v. Delaware State |
|
69-66 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 25 m |
Show
|
We have good betting splits. Nc Centrals is quietly playing well. They've won 7 of their L8. They cover, they play well on the road and well as a home favorite. They've won 9 of the L10 in this series. They shoot well, make 3s and most importantly make free throws. They also match up well defensively against D St. NC Cent defends the 3 at an elite level (#1 3p% defense).
|
01-27-24 |
Southern Utah v. Abilene Christian -6 |
|
82-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 36 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor. ACU is coming off 2 straight home wins. SU will be playing its 3rd consecutive road game. SU only has 1 road victory this season.
|
01-26-24 |
Michigan State v. Wisconsin -2.5 |
|
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 54 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin crushed MSU earlier at Michigan. Wisconsin doesn't lose at home.
|
01-26-24 |
Marist v. Niagara -140 |
|
62-67 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is one of the lowest bet matches on the board today. We've seen line movement in our favor. Niagra has the edge on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
|
01-25-24 |
Tennessee Tech v. Eastern Illinois -4 |
|
59-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
We have line movement in our favor.
|
01-24-24 |
Auburn v. Alabama -160 |
|
75-79 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
Another system play. Alabama is favorite against a ranked opponent.
|