Three Up, Three Down – 60-Day Edition by Michael Blake of Carolina Sports
Three Up, Three Down – 60-Day Edition
The first two months of the MLB season have passed – and it has been filled with shocks, surprises, disappointments, and laughingstocks. Here’s a look at what trends to trust over the next 4 months.
Three Up
Arizona (23-29: 3rd in NL West) – We loved this team in spring training and we think they are going to have a monster 2/3 of a season. Daniel Hudson and Chris young are off the DL and playing well since their returns. Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, Jason Kubel, and Paul Goldschmidt haven’t started hitting for power yet – but as the desert air begins to dry the baseball will begin to fly. Wade Miley & Joe Saunders are likely to slip a little from their great starts (combined 9-4 with a 3.06 ERA), but Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Hudson are certain to improve upon their 7-11/4.35 start. The bullpen has been outstanding, led by David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler, and I can’t see J.J. Putz continuing at a 6.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with his K rate over 10/nine innings. Kirk Gibson has proven that he can see a team through difficult times and knows how to maintain a win streak – expect to see it begin very soon. I can still see this team winning 87-90 games – maybe more.
Detroit (24-28: 3rd in AL Central) – It isn’t a question of offense with this group, as they can rake. They rank in the top ten of most major offensive categories in MLB – and Prince Fielder hasn’t even hit his power/run production potential yet. It’s all about the starting pitching with this group. Nobody not named Justin Verlander has pitched very well for the Tigers yet. Sure, rookie Drew Smyly was admirable for 6 weeks but has gotten drilled in his past 3 starts. Doug Fister can’t stay off the DL and Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have yet to live up to their lofty potential. So why do I see better days ahead? Because they play in the AL Central. Cleveland & Chicago will not continue the high level of play we’re currently seeing; Kansas City will continue to be slightly underwhelming; the Twins are horrifying. The Tigers will also be buyers at the deadline – they’re the only team in the division that can afford to be. 88-90 wins should be a lock.
Cincinnati Reds (29-22: 1st in NL Central) – Might not be too much of a stretch here, but they are trending the right way everywhere and this team has a strong veteran presence that has tasted winning as recently as two seasons ago. The core of the lineup in Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce are as talented as any trio in baseball. The starting staff is improving behind Johnny Cueto and Dusty Baker finally figured out that Aroldis Chapman needs to play a bigger role. Yes, they lack a true leadoff hitter, and are below-average at 3rd base and in left field, but they will be able to buy at the deadline to get better there. How, when they traded the farm for Matt Latos? Bullpen. Nick Masset & Bill Bray will soon make the best bullpen in the league even better and contenders will be begging for those arms come the end of July. Let’s not forget: they also possess one of the top defenses in MLB. They will approach 90 wins in a fairly weak division.
Three Down
Baltimore (29-23: T-1st AL East) – Their dip has already begun, and the potential is there for a long losing streak. They currently stand seven games over .500, but their run differential is only +8. They’re only one game over .500 at home and their road record stands to worsen as the AL East schedule becomes more prominent. Nick Markakis, enjoying a resurgent season, is on the DL for about a month leaving a big hole in the middle of the lineup. The starting pitching behind Jason Hammel has been inconsistent, and Hammel’s 3.06 ERA is almost certain to level out to something closer to his 4.84 career mark. The O’s may still end the year 10+ games under the .500 mark, despite the heroics of Adam Jones, Jim Johnson, and Buck Showalter.
Cleveland (28-23: 2nd AL Central) – There is no logical explanation as to how the Indians are 4 games over .500: their run differential is -24 (worse than Kansas City, who is 7 games under .500). Their team batting average is .248, and their slugging only .381. Their team ERA is 4.49 and their ‘ace,’ Derek Lowe, is only averaging 2.66 strikeouts per 9 innings. Travis Hafner is out for a month, Grady Sizemore’s return is questionable, and Ubaldo Jiminez still can’t find the strike zone. As Detroit and Kansas City heat up (as they are likely to do), Cleveland will see their losses begin to pile up. They might win 78 games, but they certainly won’t maintain a .540 winning percentage.
NY Mets (29-23: 3rd in NL East) – Like the Indians, there is no conceivable reasoning for the Mets’ hot start. Like Cleveland, they stand a -24 run differential. Like Cleveland, they have no consistent power source in their lineup. David Wright’s injury history appears to have sapped his ability to hit 30-35 homeruns and Ike Davis can’t stay in the lineup much longer while hitting .170. Their plate discipline, aside from Wright, is poor – the Mets are striking out once every four at bats, but walking only once every ten plate appearances. The team speed is lacking at the top of the lineup as well. Johan Santana’s comeback has been amazing, and R.A. Dickey’s rebirth has been a great story, but the NL East will improve as everyone but the financially strapped Mets become buyers instead of sellers at the trading deadline. Oh yeah – zero prospects on the horizon as their farm system ranks in the bottom third. This means that the Mets will most likely finish around 75 wins.
Carolina Sports
Join Michael daily at:
http://www.rocketmansports.net/sportscapping.php?capper/capper/417/CarolinaSports/AF5_165
