Western Conference NBA Playoffs Preview
#8 Utah (36-30 SU) vs #1 San Antonio (50-16 SU) Utah comes in just having clinched the #8 seed and have not had an opportunity to rest players like San Antonio has. The Spurs are the best team in the NBA and has the #1 rated offensive team based on offensive efficiency and #11 in defensive efficiency. They are extremely deep with Manu Ginobli coming off the bench (12.9-ppg). The Spurs have nobody avg over 30 minutes played per game except for Tony Parker. Parker is quietly having an MVP caliber season. This team is just too explosive on offensive and it is rare that the Spurs count on their offense to win games but that is the way they play. They are above avg in possessions per game based on 48 minutes. So the Spurs like to go up and down. Utah does not match-up well with the Spurs as they are a young team led by Al Jefferson (19.4-ppg) and Paul Milsap (16.6-ppg). Utah is rated #7 in offensive efficiency and only rated #20 in defensive efficiency. There too much of a talent and coaching disparity to give Utah a chance.
Prediction: San Antonio in 4
ATS Trends: San Antonio: 42-20-4 ATS; 23-8-2 home; 19-12-2 away San Antonio: 40-26 Over-Under; 16-17 home; 24-9 away Utah: 33-31-2 ATS; 19-13-1 home; 14-18-1 away Utah: 32-31-2 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 16-16 away
#5 LA Clippers (40-26 SU) vs #4 Memphis (41-25 SU) Memphis comes into the NBA playoffs as the team that nobody wants to face because of their first round upset last year against the Spurs as the #8 seed. Defense wins championships and Memphis has a solid defensive team allowing only 93.2-ppg and rated #7 in overall defensive efficiency. The team is lead by Rudy Gay (18.9-ppg) and Marc Gasol (14.5-ppg). Memphis is rated #21 in offensive efficiency and avg 95.1-ppg. The Clippers were everyone’s pick to win the Pacific Division but went through a mid-season slump and there was almost a revolt against the Head Coach Vinny Del Negro. They overcame their differences to finish strong and get the home-court advantage in the first round. The Clippers are rated #4 in offensive efficiency and #15 in defensive efficiency. This is an intriguing match-up to say the least and could go the full seven games. LA is 2-1 SU against Memphis year winning both games at home.
Prediction: Memphis in 7
ATS Trends: LA Clippers: 33-31-2 ATS; 17-16 home; 16-15-2 away LA Clippers: 33-33 Over-Under; 14-19 home; 19-14 away Memphis: 29-36-1 ATS; 16-17 home; 13-19-1 away Memphis: 26-39-1 Over-Under; 16-16-1 home; 10-23 away
#7 Dallas (36-30 SU) vs #2 Oklahoma City (47-19 SU) The NBA defending champion Mavericks barely make it into the playoffs this year as a #7 seed. The Mavs are a year older and not as deep this year as there were last year. With Lamar Odum flying off the deep-end this does not leave Dallas too many options off the bench with significant playoff experience. This team is old and has really done a good job this year after a slow start. Dallas is led by Dirk Nowitski (21.6-ppg) and Jason Terry off the bench at (15.2-ppg). This is a team that does not match-up well against the younger and more vibrant OKC Thunder team. Dallas struggles to score offensively as they rated #20 in offensive efficiency. Dallas has been solid on the defensive end as they are rated #11 in defensive efficiency. OKC is led by two of the best young players in the game, Kevin Durant (28.0-ppg) and Russell Westbrook (23.5-ppg). OKC is also led on the defensive end with shot-blocking wizard Serge Ibaka (3.7-bpg). OKC likes to push the pace on offense and take chances on defense as they are rated #3 in possessions per game (97.5). OKC is rated #2 in offensive efficiency and #10 in defensive efficiency. There is just too much talent with this team and wouldn’t be surprised if they won the NBA Title this year.
Prediction: OKC in 5
ATS Trends: Oklahoma City: 35-31 ATS; 17-16 home; 18-15 away Oklahoma City: 31-34 Over-Under; 17-15 home; 14-19 away Dallas: 31-34-1 ATS; 16-16-1 home; 15-18 away Dallas: 33-32-1 Over-Under; 15-18 home; 18-14-1 away
#6 Denver (38-28 SU) vs #3 LA Lakers (41-25 SU) Looks like Metta World Peace has not given peace a chance with his latest melt down. He will be suspended for the first 6 games of the series and he better hope that the series goes 7 or the Lakers pull out the win before his suspension is up. Denver is the league’s highest scoring team avg 103.7-ppg and rated #3 rated in offensive efficiency. Denver has 4 players avg in double-figures and they are very difficult to key on player. Denver is the worst defensive team in the players as they rated #21 in defensive efficiency. That won’t get it done. Denver excels at home as they are 20-13 SU. The problem is the Lakers have the home-court advantage. The Lakers are playing well with the emergence of Andrew Bynum but will miss World Peace on the defensive end. Head Coach Mike Brown was looking for his team to focus on the defense this year as they allowed 95.6-ppg and were rated #11 in defensive efficiency. This will be a fun series to watch as the Lakers should score some points against a poor Denver defense. The Lakers are rated #10 in offensive efficiency and the playoffs are what Kobe Bryant lives for and his fresh legs could make the difference.
Prediction: LA Lakers in 7
ATS Trends: LA Lakers: 27-38-1 ATS; 16-17 home; 11-21-1 away LA Lakers: 37-28-1 Over-Under; 18-15 home; 19-13-1 away Denver: 36-30 ATS; 14-19 home; 21-12 away Denver: 32-33-1 Over-Under; 13-20 home; 19-13-1 away
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